QuantSy

Documenting the journey. Quantitative Investing ⚙️ : Macroeconomic Modelling 🧬 : Long & Medium-term Bias📈

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

🚨Updated Disclaimer🚨Not financial advice. I share long-only strategies. My posts are NOT intended for shorting, gambling, or the use of leverage—do not interpret any of my content for these purposes. Do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making decisions.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

Macro Battlegrid Dashboard Report:

State - Slight risk-off

China - Expanding
FED - Contracting
M2 - Contracting
Gold - Overall bullish - strong negative momentum
DXY - Strengthening
Trade - Declining
Manufacturing - Expanding
Shipping - Strong

Macro Risk - Moderate

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

@jaysmontoya That’s exactly what my caption implies.. additionally for the contraction you mentioned, 3 weeks is not a long time.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

$BTC price is sitting around the same zone as February 2026, where we had a record all time low in terms of valuation. What's the issue though? We have price at the same levels, with a much higher valuation, a long term trend that has not reached its full downside potential (current reading -0.67, lowest reading possible is -1), and a liquidity heatmap suggesting we are in a slight contraction zone.

Valuation has room to the downside.

Long term trend has room to the downside.

Liquidity heatmap not only is suggesting downside but is currently only in a slight contraction phase; full contraction can still be reached.

Expect more volatility instead of stability. Exhaustion has not been reached.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

Global Liquidity Fair Value for $BTC currently sits around $95.1k with current price sitting close to the 3rd st deviation band below the mean.

In addition to the above, the liquidity heatmap (custom proxy, not GLI) has been flagging a slight contraction zone for a little while now.

Current readings do not show that stability is the most probable outcome. Next post will show why there is still room for more nukes.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

@HikaruXBT Thank you sir! Always a work in progress!

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

Global Liquidity Fair Value for $BTC currently sits around $95.1k with current price sitting close to the 3rd st deviation band below the mean.

In addition to the above, the liquidity heatmap (custom proxy, not GLI) has been flagging a slight contraction zone for a little while now.

Current readings do not show that stability is the most probable outcome. Next post will show why there is still room for more nukes.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

The reset is building up according to Parralax. The last leg has been exhaused and the metric cooled off to the green zone. Elevated readings suggest areas of exhaustion where a move has reached its potential ceiling.

In this case, the plateau has been hit and the gauge is now sweeping the floor for $BTC. A resolution of a durable trend can be the next move from here. The real question is, bull or bear?👀

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

$BTC Macro Weather Report May 25, 2026:

Net Weather: 0.42 | Fair Skies

Macro Pressure split: FED and Gold both Strong Bull. China and DXY (inv) holding Bullish. M2 the lone drag, bearish at -0.33.

Storm: 0.06 -> Overcast but calm. Every RoC reading sits Calm. No volatility pressure building beneath the surface.

Wind Composite: 0.47 -> Fair Skies. Headwinds minimal. Risk-On vote 78.05% vs Risk-Off 21.95%. M2 the only component flashing Risk-Off alongside Trade.

Pressure: 0.56 -> Storm Clear. PMI and Shipping confirming Risk-On.

Temperature: 0.48 -> Raw Temp 64.5 (Cool). Momentum Avg 0.27, still Calm.

UV Index: 0.49 -> M2 vs BTC correlation is strong (0.82). China vs BTC is also strong (0.81). FED decoupled (0/neutral). Gold and DXY both inverse.

Read: liquidity backdrop broadly supportive and risk votes overwhelmingly skewed bullish, but M2 keeps dragging across every section. Momentum still Calm, temperature still Cool. Skies are clear, the engine hasn't lit yet.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

@aussiExau I think both are very important right now. With BTC’s recent retracement, sentiment must be in the gutter. Adding the fact that the broad macro picture is not looking too stable due to the war. Price can be very sensitive with a downside preference.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

GM!

The 90-day-lagged inverted DXY indicator acts as a leading proxy. Dollar moves take time to reach risk assets. In a nutshell, what the dollar did three months ago is lined up against where $BTC trades now. BTC sitting below that line means it has underperformed what the earlier dollar setup would normally point to.

The gap between price and the midline is a representation of where BTC sits relative to the inverted dollar action. In this case, BTC looks to be priced close to -2 standard deviations away from where it should be. The chart here suggests a bearish outlook with a small possibility of price consolidating towards its implied "fair value"; even then, downward pressure still wins.

Three probable outcomes:

- Mean reversion: if the lead-lag holds, BTC is behind and closes the gap by moving up or consolidating (refers back to what I mentioned above).

- Regime break: correlation to this metric breaks and BTC breaches above it. Same way it happened with the famous M2 charts last year when the correlation flipped negative.

- Correlation remains: BTC maintains its relationship with the inverted dollar and nukes for the next month or so.

What decides it? Direction. A narrowing gap supports mean reversion. A widening one means the correlation is breaking down, and that's the riskier setup. The lag is the whole point. Without it you're plotting two correlated lines and calling it confirmation. The 90 days is what turns the second line from "these move together" into "this one moves first." It's also worth stress-testing, since that lag drifts with the macro regime.

@JackGreenCrypto's metric.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

Oscillator Suite Update:

- FSVZO: Bottomed and flashed a buying opportunity. Metric is reverting back up but still remains within the lower band.

- Vector Thrust: Trend continues to be reported as bullish; however, the regime shifted from high confidence uptrend to a low confidence one.

- VA-RSI: currently flashing a risk-off regime on intrabar data. Confirmed close? remains bullish.

All in all, the suite is not showing high conviction with the current market state. The only optimistic piece of information is the FSVZO. It is easy to make a bearish scenario here. The FSVZO could be signaling a consolidation period where it would give itself time to edge higher before nuking for another bottom, and for Vector Thrust to flip from low confidence uptrend to a bearish one. This can also be confirmed with the Volatility-Adjusted RSI peaking into the red zone.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

Two different macro tools are aligned with a current risk-off regime for $BTC.

The 3M and 12M annualized RoC in Global Liquidity is signaling that the current market state is not in favour of growth (pink and green plot).

The GLI (+11W) & BTC 6W Changes from @JackGreenCrypto not only agrees with the above report but also suggests a high probability chance of seeing a risk-on regime only until around early July, 2026.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

Universal Valuation on $BTC continues to print higher numbers making price score closer to fair value over time.

The bottom has been priced in for months now. A period of small turbulence can be normal after major onces hit the market for around half a year.

Dips like these equal opportunities.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

@vourtoss @JackGreenCrypto That chart is @JackGreenCrypto’s; not part of my suite. His work will be live soon so you might wanna stay tuned for more updates.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

Bitcoin's sensitivity to global liquidity is not a constant. It's a regime that can be measured.

The rolling β coefficient, built out by @JackGreenCrypto measures how strongly BTC responds to a unit change in global liquidity over a trailing 52-week window. Full-sample reference: 0.0404.

When β sits above the reference line, Bitcoin is in a hyper-sensitive period where liquidity changes carry outsized weight. When β compresses below, the macro link breaks down, typically during idiosyncratic shocks like exchange failures or regulatory events.
Current read: β sitting near 0.018, well below the full-sample reference. Bitcoin is in a macro-decoupled regime.

Periods where β climbs well above 0.04 have preceded the strongest expansion phases. Sustained compression below the reference often coincides with macro-disconnected drawdowns where idiosyncratic flows dominate price action.

Liquidity is not always the driver. Knowing when it is matters more than knowing the level itself.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

@vourtoss @JackGreenCrypto It was an idea I tested previously but as the correlation changes you might get the same liquidity proxy data hit chart price on different dates within a relatively short period of time. This only measures the correlation strength rather than the actualy causality.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

@vourtoss @JackGreenCrypto Like this you mean? This is calculating the correlation strength between $BTC and the avegare of all liquidity correlations relative to the current optimal lag.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

What this may imply for $BTC price is that despite the expected reduction in liquidity strength affecting the market, the impact might not be as significant as we think it is due to the the rolling β coefficient being so low.

Perhaps some slight down pressure or sideways action. To be monitored as more data becomes available.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

Bitcoin's sensitivity to global liquidity is not a constant. It's a regime that can be measured.

The rolling β coefficient, built out by @JackGreenCrypto measures how strongly BTC responds to a unit change in global liquidity over a trailing 52-week window. Full-sample reference: 0.0404.

When β sits above the reference line, Bitcoin is in a hyper-sensitive period where liquidity changes carry outsized weight. When β compresses below, the macro link breaks down, typically during idiosyncratic shocks like exchange failures or regulatory events.
Current read: β sitting near 0.018, well below the full-sample reference. Bitcoin is in a macro-decoupled regime.

Periods where β climbs well above 0.04 have preceded the strongest expansion phases. Sustained compression below the reference often coincides with macro-disconnected drawdowns where idiosyncratic flows dominate price action.

Liquidity is not always the driver. Knowing when it is matters more than knowing the level itself.

[QuantSy @QuantSy6]

The Risk Heatmap composite reading at -1.8, sitting in the Reduced Risk zone.

Component scores split across the suite: 3.00 / 0.00 / 2.47.

A three-signal composite framework built to systematically identify periods of elevated risk and accumulation windows across the cycle.

Sub-zero readings typically align with constructive risk-on conditions, while sustained pushes above +2.0 mark zones where capital preservation takes priority over exposure.