Great write-up. I love how they justify the log scale of time on their BTC/USD chart by comparing it to that of an object in free fall (as indeed the dollar is). Funny and appropriate 😁
Is bitcoin's power-law really debunked? In this article, @Giovann35084111 and I refute @TimStolte98's claim that the model is bunk. We take this opportunity to explain the model in different terms, and make links to physics and biology.
https://t.co/TytQwyjFui
Is bitcoin's power-law really debunked? In this article, @Giovann35084111 and I refute @TimStolte98's claim that the model is bunk. We take this opportunity to explain the model in different terms, and make links to physics and biology.
https://t.co/TytQwyjFui
#BTC if you still have doubt about how good the Power Law model in predicting the future, here a comparison of the model in 2018 (when I posted on Reddit about it) and the model today.
Almost a perfect long term prediction.
This is from the new @hcburger1 article on co-integration a math tool that false "debunkers" threw at us as a criticism of the model but it turns out they failed very hard.
https://t.co/m1Aqf7Kr68
We conclude that the time-based power-law is cointegrated in a loose sense, that our critics are wrong and that the model is perfectly valid. We demonstate that this conclusion similarly applies to @100trillionUSD's S2F model as well as to exponential growth in the stock market.
We determine that, strictly speaking, cointegration cannot exist in time-dependent models. Yet, one of the statistical attributes essential for cointegration -stationarity- is undeniably found present in the time-based power-law model.
In this article, @hcburger1 and @peter_vijn address the criticism put forward by @marcelamdax, @ciphernom, and @TimStolte98 that the time-based power-law (initially by @Giovann35084111) supposedly lacks cointegration and is therefore spurious.
@bjuno76 #coronavirus#COVID19 The power value on itself is interesting, but at the moment an observable. The fact that we do see a power law is remarkable because viral outbreaks are supposed to be exponential with undiminished growth in their early phase. No sign of that.
@bjuno76 #coronavirus#COVID19 Please see the huge difference between your linear fit on a lin-log plot and our linear fit on a log-log plot. Yours corresponds to exponential growth, ours corresponds to powerlaw growth. Powerlaw has diminished growth possibly partly due to quarantining.
#coronavirus#COVID19 This is the same data and model on a linear time scale. Growth is clearly diminishing over time. Exponential growth is non-diminishing and would show as a straight line up in this chart. Growth is not exponential and that is a relief.