G$

offhand sprezzatura | PSD '81 | trader |pro gazumping| hft/ll truther | Pensées

[G$ @QuantraCap]

Таким образом, свободная воля не является необходимой для теории вероятностей

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@anishbuilds @iner_li @evan_semet @Kalshi Agree, tell that to the tighty whitey ev punters.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@timeoutburner @blondspit And it's not even close

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@MajinVegeta6969 @evan_semet @Kalshi Stand by my count.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

G1X was out of routing for SpaceX by 10 AM ET, literally couldn't handle basic IPO volume. Non existent Equities business. SIG LL Options is also non existent. When we interview QT's from SIG, they talk about spread sheets, and vibe punts. Optiver faster + sharper at trading Index Options, IMC better at spread capture.

Jane (league of it's own), HRT XTX (crushing LL), Quadrature, G-Research crushing statarb, Citsec reverting back to LL roots,full rebuild, running up stats, Jump doing LL Futs + Crypto punts, DRW doing their own Cumberlands thing, and IMC doing 1 trick pony SPX Options Spread capture.

Then there's SIG (punting singles and failing at Equities, ETFs and anything LL) , and Belvedere (apologies for the stray) stuck in there somewhere.

I count 5 tiers. What am I missing?

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@iner_li @evan_semet @Kalshi If you lookat the positive ev nerds they do sling big balls size too. Don't know any prop shop that just walks by 15 yards of loss.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@NothingMisanz @evan_semet @Kalshi Not according to my brokercheck.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@p_gammae That's not true objectively. You don't blindly do the same thing.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@evan_semet @Kalshi Lot of stat arb books atye diluting sharpe, for absolute pnl and eating the variance. That is what it comes down to for SIG, as you said, but they are still shovelling on excel sheets.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

No way that's a good faith response.

tl;dr I don't want every positive ev trade, they do. Not only do they want it, they want it served on a platter of shit infra.

edge - lambda *risk > threshold

1.) Most MM's aren't as sharp dilutive as SIG. Positive expectancy isn't necessarily Sharpe accretive. Given recent top line numbers, more firms are lowering their Sharpe floor. To achieve that, you change your view on risk, and lower the threshold. It's not rocket science or better trading, just a response to trends.

2.) A lot of their businesses (including Prediction Markets, go figure) appear to be concentrated in that lower Sharpe space, which is why I think they are riding primo amongst those who are willing to punt alongside them (their Tier) But more firms could, just on principle, chip away at that, by revaluating their position on how much risk to run and at what marginal sharpe.

You can argue against that, but I'll contest most firms tag each others trades, are somewhat aware of the risk they are running, and I am telling you, a lot of that shit sits in its own category, cause I don't want to run a 1.8 Sharpe punty book.

I'll even admit every two years someone at my shop hires a giga chungus from Jane to solve the clicky boys game, and every cycle has been a lesson in learning why an alpha first shop would never jive with vibe max trading. They show up with bizarre microstructural notions, and no knack for hedges, and inevitably crash out.

Simple fact check, if you are near any MSR team, ask them to show you what the year on year slope for trade pnl looks like at Jane, HRT, DRW, Citsec, and then look at SIG. You can have positive velocity with none to negative acceleration.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@__paleologo I do have a dual pronged test -
- Do they have taste - in all things are they guided by beauty?
- Are they a good hang?

70 - 30 Weight.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@Notbullnorbear @briskybop Did you ever end up reading Trading at the Speed of Light by Donald McKenzie?

I would agree. From the time we see light down the fiber, to us pushing out the first bit of the the partially formed packet is close to 1-2 mics (allegedly).

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@rdd147 @tweetieaa You are not incorrect. And I am not uncertain.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@Notbullnorbear @briskybop Under 10-50 mics ish tick to trade. Depending on product, colo etc.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@evikokalari COPE

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@kirkthenecker @booktycoon He comes across as a cookie left dipped in stale milk for far too long. That is his crowning achievement, to be offensively unremarkable. I ish Inhad never come across this turd.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@DavidSuissaJJ That's a reach my guy.

[Cinema Tweets @CinemaTweets1]

Cinema is Forever

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@armanigracia Boo fucking hoo, retarded cunt.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@little_gradient @shove_bet Futures and China Equities yes.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@little_gradient SIG is easily Tier 2. I'd even put it lower.

[G$ @QuantraCap]

@KamVTV @KenPaxtonTX Don't delete this, I'll come back to this post election.