Quanttrader

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

@gabz_investing $DXYZ's NAV was $24.56 as of 3/31 and should be higher today due to SpaceX and Anthropic. This is trading near NAV currently

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

$VCX up while trading at a massive prem to NAV while $DXYZ down 11% while trading at a much smaller prem to NAV. What's happening here?

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

@MikePha43543783 @epicpioneer How do you arrive at $39?

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

@santhonys The launched options on $RVI yesterday as well. Have you created the same thing for $RVI

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

@santhonys And someone really has to own VCX then they're better of selling the Jan 170 Puts for $85

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

@santhonys Ppl are crazy $VCX at this prem to NAV. Why would anyone buy $VCX instead of $DXYX? You can play the arbitrage and Buy DXYZ while shorting VCX to profit when the gap between the two premiums they trade at closes.

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

Gemini says they did with NAV at $24.56 as of 3/31 and should be higher using today's valuations.

I sold a lot of Naked Calls at the 390, 400 and 410 strikes on VCX and looking great.

They recently issued options on DXYZ and if the NAV #'s are accurate, selling the Dec 40 Puts for about $13 is not a bad idea. Worst case, puts you in the stock at $27 which should be around the current NAV

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

@santhonys Anthony, great work here as always. Has DXYZ published their 3/31 NAV yet? What would the NAV be if we use current valuations on Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX?

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

@RoaringRagnar Why would he buy over 24K 2 weeks ago just to sell a fraction today to pay dividends?

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

@AsifSuria Did very well shorting $CAR but I'm curious to find out what portion of the total profit front Pentwater goes to Avis since Pentwater triggered the 6-month rule

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

@ChadKrout @BenMillerise Great question

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

@santhonys @nitainiubile Thank you! I wish we had options listed in DXYZ and RVI just like VCX

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

When can we get options on $RVI and $DXYZ? We have options on $VCX why not the other 2.

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

What he said! $VCX, $DXYZ, $RVI

[ChinoAleman @chinoalemano]

$DXYZ - Proceed with caution.

With the hype around SpaceX $SPCX and Anthropic IPOs, I've seen $DXYZ floated everywhere as THE proxy trade.

So I dug into the numbers.

Here's what nobody is telling you at $47 ($1.05B market cap).

WHAT IT IS

A fund that owns pieces of private companies you can't buy directly. Like an ETF for unicorns.

They own SpaceX, Anthropic, Databricks, Shield AI + 28 others.

WHAT'S IN IT (Mar 31, 2026 = $742M total portfolio)

➝ Cash: 31.4% (sitting in Treasury MMF)
➝ Anthropic SPV: 18.1% (marked at $380B Series G)
➝ SpaceX: 9.6% (incl xAI after Feb 2 merger, marked ~$400B)
➝ Databricks: ~4% (marked at $134B Series L)
➝ Other 28 holdings: ~37%

Notice cash + Anthropic = nearly half the fund.

SpaceX is 10%.

THE KEY METRIC: NAV

NAV (Net Asset Value) = what each share would be worth if the fund sold everything tomorrow.

➝ DXYZ NAV = $24.56
➝ DXYZ price = $47.62

That's a 94% premium.

You're paying $47 for $24 of stuff.

WHY ANYONE PAYS DOUBLE

Retail can't access SpaceX or Anthropic directly → scarcity premium

Bet that underlying privates rerate higher soon (IPOs ahead).

Meme / FOMO momentum

THE BULL MATH - if all 3 catalysts hit H2 2026

➝ SpaceX IPO @ $1.75T → 4.4x from $400B mark → +$340M
➝ Anthropic round @ $900B → 2.4x from $380B (Bloomberg, May 12) → +$260M
➝ Databricks IPO @ $200B → 1.5x from $134B → +$21M

NAV rerates: $24.56 → ~$39 (+59%)

THE CATCH ➝ stock price ≠ NAV.

Premium decides everything

➝ Premium 94% (today's level) → stock $76 → +60%
➝ Premium 70% → stock $66 → +39%
➝ Premium 50% → stock $58 → +23%
➝ Premium 20% → stock $47 → 0%
➝ Premium 0% → stock $39 → −18%

THE TRAP NOBODY MENTIONS

The same IPOs that make NAV go up are what kill the premium. Once SpaceX trades publicly, anyone can buy SpaceX directly. The scarcity premium evaporates.
DXYZ premium history:

2024 peak: 900% (traded at 10x NAV)

Mar 2025: −10% (DISCOUNT to NAV)

Today: 94%

This thing swings between euphoria and disgust.

Buying at 94% premium is buying near a local high, not a structural floor.

BOTTOM LINE

→ At $30 = buy.
→ At $47 = speculation.

You need TWO bets to hit:
(a) catalysts materialize (probable)
(b) premium holds (unlikely once stocks actually list)

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

$CVNA Good looking H&S. I guess the 5:1 split did nothing to excite new buyers

[Outlier Capital @outlierrcapital]

I never wrote a long form article on $LEN or $NCLH so I understand why I don't get credit for those legendary trades...

But when $CVNA free falls do I get a movie made about me?

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

@santhonys Great piece. How are you shorting? options or shorting the shares?

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

Let's add $CVNA to every index 🤣

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

30% of car buyers trading in vehicles in early 2026 are "underwater," owing more on their loans than the car is worth, with an average gap of over $7,000, per WSJ

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

@TFTC21 Wow so how does this impact $VCX and $DXYZ bc they own some of their exposure through SPV’s?

[Quanttrader @Quanttrader26]

and somehow $CVNA will continue to post record numbers. lol

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

AUTO LOAN AND CREDIT CARD DELINQUENCIES IN THE US HAVE HIT ALL-TIME HIGHS, ACCORDING TO CNBC