What the July CPI means for the Fed
• The July CPI extends a run of much cooler inflation and makes a September rate cut from the Fed as close to a lock as these things get.
• This report makes it easier at the margin to avoid dissents on the first cut.
• This report doesn't resolve the debate over whether to start with 25 bps vs 50 bps. To get 50 bps, you'd probably need to see something bad in the labor market.
• A big question for the September FOMC will be how many rate cuts are penciled in for the rest of the year. (Remember, the September SEP is unusual. Because the SEP is calendar-based, it's basically guiding on the path of policy at the Nov+Dec meetings.) Mild inflation readings could make a three-cut baseline more likely https://t.co/JdqMA4gkqE
The core CPI rose 0.17% in July, in line with estimates.
This lowered the 12-month rate to 3.2%, the lowest since May 2021.
The six-month annualized rate fell to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021.
The three-month annualized rate of 1.6% was also the lowest since March 2021
Here are my favorite stocks for the last few months of the year:
1) $MU
2) $CRWD
3) $WULF
4) $CLSK
5) $LRCX
6) $AXON
7) $ZETA
8) $GMED
9) $ORCL
10) $CLBT
11) $VRT
12) $CAMT
13) $ACMR
14) $PLAB
15) $AEHR
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