Q

Futures & options advisor @ JGL | Canola & wheat risk management | Prairie grain markets, hedging & basis 🌾Get in touch via JGL 👇

[Q @QuintinStamler]

Canola - Crop Conditions

[Q @QuintinStamler]

Canola is having an extreme week. D4 RINs as well.

Head and shoulders pattern potential - a key factor to watch here is volume. Volume typically fades as the pattern plays out.

Margin requirements on canola increasing = not a helper with volume.

[Q @QuintinStamler]

Manitoba crop report: Canola winding down flowering, earliest fields into pod fill. Winter wheat/fall rye turning color, soft dough — Eastern MB harvest could start first week of Aug. Hot/dry week in the south, wetter up north.
Full Report:
https://t.co/S6cuOMAKmV

[JGL @JGL_Ag]

How is canola going to finish the year?

[Q @QuintinStamler]

EU July crop report: heat cut rapeseed yields to -2% vs 5yr avg (-1% m/m), soft wheat down 2% m/m. Türkiye's wet spring, though, delivered a record winter wheat crop.

Full Report:
https://t.co/q5aGRT6nyy

[Q @QuintinStamler]

Canola July 27 vs. Nov 27 spread is getting getting. Add this one to the watch list.

[Q @QuintinStamler]

Big wildcard: in April 2026 the EU proposed reclassifying both palm oil AND soybean oil as "high ILUC-risk" feedstocks — which would cut soy-based biodiesel out of EU targets entirely. Parliament rejected the draft on July 8, 2026 and sent it back for rework. Far from settled.
Source: USDA FAS GAIN Report E42026-0052, "Biofuels Annual: European Union," July 17, 2026.

[Q @QuintinStamler]

Trade is being reshuffled hard. EU anti-dumping duties gutted Chinese biodiesel imports (down ~100% in 2025). Early 2026: Argentina imports have also collapsed, while India and Thailand are surging as new suppliers.

[Q @QuintinStamler]

On exports: the US switched from a blenders' to a producers' tax credit, killing the EU's soybean-biodiesel export trade to the US almost overnight. The UK has stepped in as the EU's new #1 export market — up ~60% y/y in 2025 and still climbing.

[Q @QuintinStamler]

BIODIESEL (BBD): consumption up 4.1% in 2025, forecast +2.8% in 2026, driven largely by new EU Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandates.

[Q @QuintinStamler]

BIOETHANOL: EU fuel ethanol consumption jumped 44% from 2020-2025 on E10 rollout. 2026 forecast: ~7.9 billion liters, up 5.9% y/y.

Domestic production is flat — France/Germany near max capacity, Hungary squeezed by tight corn supply. So imports are forecast to rise to 1.91 billion liters in 2026, mainly from the US and Ukraine

[Q @QuintinStamler]

New USDA GAIN report out on EU biofuels 🇪🇺⛽

Bioethanol and biodiesel demand keeps climbing on tighter renewable transport rules — but domestic production is stalling and trade flows are getting rewired

https://t.co/weuaIuqpqW

Here's what matters 🧵

[Chuck_Penner @LeftFieldCR]

Interesting output from AAFC. Using NDVI on an ongoing basis. May not be perfect but another source of info is always appreciated.

This map is projected durum yields.

[Q @QuintinStamler]

https://t.co/OFxzIeAmQQ

[Q @QuintinStamler]

Canola market so far on US tariffs.

[Q @QuintinStamler]

How It’s Made might be some of the most captivating TV I’ve ever watched.

[Q @QuintinStamler]

@JGL_Ag SK Crop report from two weeks ago quoted 6% acre loss (0.804M in SK)
I would guess MB is higher than 6% and Alberta is lower.
https://t.co/Lz616mvKw8

[JGL @JGL_Ag]

How many canola acres do you believe have been lost nationally this season?🌱

[Q @QuintinStamler]

ooof

[Q @QuintinStamler]

Alberta Crop Report
Canola condition: 57% G/E provincially — regionally split:
South 71%
Central 72%
N East 53%
Peace 52%
N West 33% ⚠️

Spring wheat condition: 70% G/E provincially — regionally split:
South 85%
Central 89%
Peace 62%
N East 58%
N West 43% ⚠️

https://t.co/dHwO9JjLd6