Rob Lee

Senior Fellow @FPRI. Previously @USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST. Focused on Russian defense policy.

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

Last month, I interviewed Lieutenant Colonel Vladyslav "Shram" Tovstyi, the commander of the 38th Marine Brigade's (@38obrmp) Corsair UAS Battalion for the Ukraine Military Podcast.

(00:00) Introduction
(03:35) The background of the Corsair Battalion
(04:40) What is the current situation and the effect of weather on the battlefield
(06:50) Russian tactics
(08:25) Assessment of Russia's Rubicon Center
(09:35) Effect of Russia scaling its unmanned systems forces
(10:45) What was the effect when Russia lost access to Starlink?
(11:20) What effect is Ukraine's Middle Strike campaign having on the front line?
(13:43) Urban warfare in Myrnohrad vs fighting for tree lines
(16:20) Role of fiber optic cable FPVs and what is the ratio of fiber optic to radio signal FPVs from both sides?
(19:35) Use of Starlink on FPVs and heavy bomber drones
(20:55) Accuracy of fiber optic cable and radio signal FPVs and how many FPVs are used per day
(25:15) The role of tall buildings in drone warfare
(26:45) UGV and UAS logistics
(29:10) How many heavy bomber drones do you lose per week and what are the typical missions?
(30:30) How many UGV missions are conducted per day and how many UGVs do you lose?
(32:09) Assessment of the E-points system
(34:15) What is the structure of your UAS Battalion?
(35:00) What lessons should other militaries draw from this war about drone warfare?
(37:15) What effect would another Russian mobilization have on the war?
(39:40) How many Molniya and FPV do you face per day?
https://t.co/pkDc3g37QQ

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“Joining the EU soon is an important aim for Ukraine as it tries to complete its exit from Moscow's orbit, but there is scepticism in the wealthy bloc of 450 million people about Kyiv's prospects of achieving that goal.

Some European leaders have said they hope to welcome Ukraine into the bloc in the next few years.

But in conversations with Reuters, more than a dozen diplomats and officials from EU states were privately more cautious, pointing to formidable obstacles that Kyiv and the EU will have to overcome before Ukraine can join.

‘You go around and you realise that, in many countries, politicians don't ⁠expect Ukraine to join in 10 years,’ said Gerald Knaus, chairman of the European Stability Initiative think tank.”
https://t.co/lgGnyzOARh

[PJ "giK" @giK1893]

It was an honor to be part of this run and deliver the vans we could buy thanks to your support to the Ukrainian defenders in Kharkiv and Kyiv.

The vehicles were so well received that we have decided to try and make it a perpetual thing and use our trips to Ukraine not only to bring vans, but to also serve Liberty Ukraine's needs in logistics with them. Just as we picked up the ATVs in the video.

Hence, we have decided to continue our fundraiser.

Currently, the next units on our list to receive vans are KORD Khmelnytskyi, KORD Kyiv, Omega Liberty and 80th Air Assault.

Thank you for supporting the people protecting Ukraine and a free Europe!

https://t.co/5M35B2421P

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“Renewed Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries since late October have reduced Russia's oil refining capacity by about 30%, two industry sources said…

According to the industry sources, the combined daily nameplate capacity of Russian refineries affected by drone attacks since late October, including three major plants in central Russia, stands at around 300,000 metric tons, or 2.2 million barrels, compared with Russia's total primary refining capacity of about 930,000 tons per day.

At the end of October, Russian refineries were processing about 700,000 tons, or 5 million barrels, of crude per day, according to the sources.

The sources estimate that the ‌actual ⁠reduction in crude processing at Russian refineries could be up to 200,000 tons per day.”
https://t.co/bHbii9q9ch

[U.S. Marines @USMC]

251 Years at the Tip of the Spear

For 251 years, Marines have met every fight with resolve, precision, and an ethos that never wavers. The first to fight and the last to yield. America sleeps well because Marines stand the watch.

Happy Birthday, Marines. Semper Fidelis.

(Narrated by @netflix @mosquitobowl Director Peter Berg)

🎥(U.S. Marine Corps video by Staff Sgt. Patrick Katz)

[Rubizh @RubizhBrigade]

Ukrainian turtle tank rolls up on Russian dugout and obliterates it

You think tanks are obsolete yet?

#Rubizh

[genik @gena_novikov]

опта спалила вчора нам робочу конячку. заміна є, але потребує ремонту нормального

тому якщо маєте ще гримні на донати, щиро запрошую

https://t.co/HVg1ZQWqLJ

🔽

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

@Boeing777_39P @KilledInUkraine Senezh uses Gerans.

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

@Boeing777_39P @KilledInUkraine Great work. I’m busy at the moment, but I’ll come back to this.

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“Over 600,000 consumers in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast have been left without electricity following Russian attacks on the power system on the morning of 8 November.

Source: DTEK, the largest private energy company in Ukraine; Oleksandr Hanzha, Head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast State Administration

Quote from Hanzha: ‘Over 600,000 consumers have been left without electricity in the Dnipro, Kamianske, Samar, Pavlohrad and Synelnykove districts due to enemy attacks on the power system.’”
https://t.co/ksLqGAfU5q

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“The number of people killed in the Russian strike on the settlement of Komyshuvakha in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 2 November has risen to 53.”
https://t.co/tH2FHLMabw

[imi (m) @moklasen]

RU 3rd Division (20th CAA) observing UA 3rd Assault Brigade assaulting with a group of UGVs
49.29006, 37.93966 (0:38)
Druzhelyubivka, Kharkiv
@UAControlMap @GeoConfirmed

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

The commander of Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade Shamil Krutkov will become the deputy commander of the Ground Forces. Notably, General Syrsky was in the process of removing Krutkov from brigade command before he was replaced. General Drapaty not only stopped his relief but is now promoting him. @dianabutsko
https://t.co/u5oTU47VC3

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

2/

[Dallas Analytics @dallas_analytic]

🇮🇷🇷🇺 Despite Washington's recent assertions that Moscow is not backing Tehran, confidential Russian defence records tell a different story. Dallas Analytics publishes primary industrial documents proving conclusively what the export code "K-10" designates: Iran.
🕵️ State plants built specialised missile-launch hardware – arming the forces now strangling global energy transit in the Strait of Hormuz – alongside a wider pipeline spanning Yak-130 trainers and helicopter upgrades.
Read our investigation and examine the original schedules: https://t.co/uzHDyssDzr

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“Russia agreed to supply Iran with 90 launchers for the advanced guided missiles widely used by its forces in Ukraine, a sign of Moscow’s military support for Tehran despite the demands of its own sputtering war effort. 

A production schedule for 2024 and 2025 from a major Russian defence manufacturer, seen by the FT, details an export order for the helicopter-mounted launchers to a buyer identified by a code name used in Russian defence documents to refer to Iran…

Both types of launcher [APU-L and APU-305] are designed to carry Russia’s light multipurpose guided missile, known as LMUR or Izdeliye 305, a precision weapon capable of striking moving targets. First unveiled at Russia’s Army Expo in 2021, the missile entered military service in 2022 and has since been widely used by Russian forces in Ukraine.”
@maxseddon @MilesMJohnson
https://t.co/scEm0XmAFl

[Aidan Stretch @aidan_stretch]

Again no running water in parts of Kyiv this afternoon, following more Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Water supply had been restored to the city fewer than 24 hours ago after what had been the largest outages of the year.

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“The bodies of 42 Ukrainians have been recovered from the rubble in the village of Komyshuvakha in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with 33 more people still missing as of Nov. 5, three days after Russian forces attacked the settlement with heavy aerial bombs, the National Police said.

With the final death toll yet to be officially established, the strike on the front-line village is already one of the deadliest single Russian attacks since the start of the full-scale invasion four and a half years ago.

Russian forces struck Komyshuvakha several times with aerial bombs on the morning of Nov. 2, initially hitting a school building where local residents had gathered to receive humanitarian aid. One of the bombs was a 3-ton FAB-3000, which contains more than 1,000 kilograms of explosives and has a blast radius of up to 250 meters.”
https://t.co/UfZpGCvYpn

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“Emergency power cuts have been introduced in Kyiv's Podilskyi, Shevchenkivskyi and Sviatoshynskyi districts following a Russian attack.

Source: press service for DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company

Details: Scheduled power cuts do not apply during emergency outages. In other districts of Kyiv, the scheduled power cut timetables remain in force.”
https://t.co/olCIbYRzd7

[Kyle Glen @KyleJGlen]

This is the 6th strike on oil infrastructure in 7 days during this renewed campaign.

[jasonbellini @jasonbellini]

Kyiv no longer produces its own power. It can't. Most of it now travels about 200 miles from nuclear plants... and Russia is hitting the wires in between. #Kyiv @scrippsnews

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“The mass Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy system on Nov. 3 triggered Kyiv’s most severe water outage during the full-scale invasion, three people with knowledge of the matter, including a government advisor, told the Kyiv Independent.

Residents throughout Kyiv were left without waterfor more than 24 hours after the strikes cut power to the city. While authorities haven’t confirmed the exact number of consumers left without water, outages were reported in most districts of the city, including the center, where some restaurants even had to close their bathrooms to customers.

‘This is the most serious water outage in Kyiv since the war began. It is also expected that the situation will worsen in the winter,’ Mykhailo Yatsuk, director of the Institute of Water Problems and Land Reclamation, told the Kyiv Independent.”
https://t.co/zThmF6jYUJ