This is the highest CAPE I've ever seen modelled for the UK, and potentially the highest we'll ever see.
The risk of severe thunderstorms begins tomorrow and could continue right through to the end of the week. Monday currently looks like the most likely day for widespread thunderstorm development, as clear triggers are present. There is much more uncertainty from Tuesday through Friday. While models continue to show extreme instability, they currently lack obvious triggers, although that could change as we get closer.
Even taking a conservative approach, CAPE values of 2,000–5,000 J/kg appear possible across much of the UK, particularly across southern and central areas. These are exceptionally high values for the UK and would support severe thunderstorms and potentially supercells, especially where strong wind shear is present.
Very frequent lightning, large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding could all be possible at various points between Monday and Friday if storms develop.
Tomorrow may see a more widespread outbreak of thunderstorms, particularly along the M4 corridor, including areas around Bristol, Gloucester, Swindon, and extending into North Wales.
Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to high 30s°C, while dew points could climb into the low to mid 20s°C. This combination is creating an extremely unstable airmass and is the reason such extraordinary CAPE values are being forecast.
I do not say this lightly: if sufficient triggers develop to release this instability, we could be looking at a historic week of severe weather by UK standards.
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