RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA

Senior Research Analyst (Agri commodities)

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

Brazil soybean premiums sink to all-time lows
Soybean cash premiums in Brazil have dropped to historical low levels amid an ongoing record harvest coupled with slow Chinese demand due to unattractive crush margins.

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The bill has been referred to the Senate Finance Committee and currently has one cosponsor, Sen. Thom Tillis (R–North Carolina

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In U.S., Sen. Blackburn Proposes 6-Month Return of $1/gal Biodiesel Blenders Credit

On December 2, 2025, Sen. Marsha Blackburn introduced a proposal aimed at providing temporary relief to the biodiesel industry amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the 45Z clean fuel credit.

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

The CROP Act (S. 3297) would reinstate the $1 per gallon 40A biodiesel blenders tax credit for six months, through May 31, 2026, allowing taxpayers to choose between claiming 40A or 45Z during this period.

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

Brazil may not be able to raise the mandatory biodiesel mix in diesel to 16% from 15% within a government-set deadline of March 2026, an official from the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy said on Monday.

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Brazil Soy Planting Hits Record Pace

Farmers have planted 4.16% of the 2025/26 soybean area, the fastest start on record. Favorable rains in Paraná are driving the surge, compared to just 0.54% last year. 🇧🇷

#Soybeans #Brazil #soybean #AgriCommodities #CropProgress

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

detailing comments received and their impact on timelines.

*Key Milestone Ahead:* The November 7 filing will determine whether the court imposes stricter deadlines to ensure the RVOs are finalized before the 2026 compliance year. 2/2

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

The legal fight over the 2026 RVOs has intensified as EPA signaled further delays, citing its supplemental SRE proposal, drawing criticism from biofuel groups for stalling. Judge Kelly has now ordered the EPA to file a Joint Status Report by November 7, 2025, 1/2

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The decline is partly attributed to the age of oil palm trees, with around 40% of them being older, which also affects productivity, GAPKI (Indonesian Palm Oil Association) reported.

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Indonesia’s Palm oil and palm kernel oil production set to drop 5% in 2024: GAPKI

Indonesia's output of crude palm oil and palm kernel oil is expected to decrease by 5% in 2024, due to the impact of dry weather patterns in 2023. The estimated output is 51 MMT for 2024.

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

Palm oil surges to 2 yr high
On Wednesday, Malaysian palm oil futures surged near 2% to above MYR 4,470/MT, rallying for the 3rd session and hitting highest since Oct’22, amid a weaker ringgit and gains Dalian and CBoT markets. As of now, in October the market is up by over 12%

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

Over the past month, Rapeseed oil prices have eased by 8%. In the last three months, price gains have narrowed to 15% and over the past six months, prices are up by 32%. Over the last year, mustard oil prices are up by 24%, largely driven by a duty hike.

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

Rapeseed oil rebounds from one-month low

The Rapeseed oil expeller prices in Jaipur, India rebounded to ₹1,310 per 10 kg on Tuesday from lower levels in domestic markets. The market has corrected nearly 10% from its recent peak of ₹1,460, in line with the movement of rival oil

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Over the past month, soy oil prices are up by 2%. In the last three months, prices have seen a more significant increase of 28%. Over the last year, soy oil prices have surged by 32%, largely driven by a duty hike.
On Monday, CBOT Soy oil futures went up by 1.20% to 42.31

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

Despite this export surge, Indian soymeal prices are at a near four-year low, hovering around INR 31,000 per quintal. The decline is attributed to competition from cheaper DDGS (a by-product of ethanol), ample global soymeal supply, and weak demand from the poultry sector.

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

India's Soymeal Exports Surge 65%
According to the latest data from the Solvent Extractors' Association, India's soymeal exports surged by 65% between October 2023 and September 2024, reaching 2.45 million tonnes, up from 1.48 million tonnes in the same period the previous year.

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

Earlier, MPOB reported Malaysia’s palm oil M-O-M production down by 3.80% to 1.82 MMT. Conversely, stockpile increased by nearly 7% to 2.01 MMT. And export increased marginally by 0.93% to 1.54 MMT in the month of September as compared to August.

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

On Tuesday early session, Palm oil Malaysia went up for a second consecutive session and gained by nearly 1% to MYR 4343 per MT amid a weaker ringgit, strength in soybean contracts on the Dalian market and good export numbers.

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Malaysia's palm oil product exports for Oct 1-20 rose by 9.51% compared to the previous month, as reported by independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia.

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

@im_rajeshsahani Both palm and soybean oil prices have declined by 5% and 4% from their peaks, respectively. Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and refined soybean oil are expected to consolidate within the 1150-1200 range until there is a recovery in demand.

[RAMCHANDRA KUSHWAHA @RC__Kushwaha]

Palm oil gains to start the week

Malaysian palm oil futures gained over 1%, approaching MYR 4,300 per tonne, marking the first increase in three sessions. This rise was influenced by stronger soyoil prices on the CBOT market and a rebound in crude oil prices.