RDM Advisory

London-based Political Risk & Business Research Advisory with Turkey & MENA focus | runs @Turkey_Monitor | Risk. Diligence. Monitoring.

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

X bans Istanbul Mayor and CHP’s Presidential Candidate Imamoglu’s account due to “legal demand.” Imamoglu, Erdogan’s main rival, was arrested on 19 March on vague corruption allegations, in a move widely seen as political.

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

Turkey’s main opposition CHP wins first election victory since 1977, in major blow to Erdogan’s AKP, keeping major cities Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir and adding 14 more. #Turkey #TurkeyElections #elections

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

“We could not get the results we wanted.” “This was our 18th elections. God willingly we will continue to win.” “There is good in everything that happens” President Erdogan after defeat in #TurkeyElections.

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

President Erdoğan in first message after his party’s defeat in local elections: “31 March is not the end but a turning point for us.” #turkey #TurkeyElections

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

With 10 days remaining for #Turkey elections runoff, what are Erdogan's and Kilicdaroglu's playbooks? Can Kilicdaroglu's change of heart turn the tide? Who will harness the ultranationalists' support for the ultimate victory, at what cost? #TurkeyElections
https://t.co/ZB10T9GIik

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

As common sense has replaced tit-for-tat, white smoke has finally emerged in Ankara. The opposition, perhaps half-heartedly, is now reunited under Kilicdaroglu, and their eyes are fixed on Erdogan. Our update on the 72-hour political drama.
https://t.co/Syl6WSClxu

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

How did IYI Party's surprise pull-out from TR’s opposition alliance change the electoral dynamics? Can -now- the "Table of Five" weather the storm or have they already lost the fight? And what is next in Erdogan’s playbook? For the shifting plates: https://t.co/UzffxhrKgM

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

"The best hope for the crisis-struck opposition now is to keep Erdogan under 50% in the first round (of voting) and show unity in the second round," said Erdem Aydin, founder of London-based RDM Advisory.

https://t.co/K0UB1fkMjd

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

We now offer pro bono due diligence services to any organisation as part of their #earthquake relief donations for #Turkey. Our hearts are with those still trapped under the debris, the survivors and the nation of Turkey.🙏 #TurkeyQuake

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

Conflict breeds corruption. CIS, C Asia & MENA among worst hit in 2022, @anticorruption says.
Worst performers〽️
🇦🇿AZB ↓7 pts, rank #157
🇹🇳TUN ↓4 #85
🇦🇲ARM ↓3 #63
🇪🇬EGY ↓3 #130
🇸🇦KSA ↓2 #54
🇧🇾BLR ↓2 #91
🇹🇷TRY ↓2 #101
🇰🇿KAZ ↓1 #101
🇷🇺RUS ↓1 #137
https://t.co/hVVpOLeHTZ

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

We are proud to announce that we have partnered with @englishpen to evaluate their #Turkey Programme. #businessnews #journalism #humanrights #compliance #politicalrisk @Turkey_Monitor

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

We are now a member of @ACi_ExCo! Hope to grow together! #investigations #duediligence #compliance #riskmanagement

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

Another rate cut by CBRT followed by another lira crash. After 100 bps cut to 14%, USD/TRY trades at 13.38 at GMT1130, up %3.75. Lira now has lost more than half of its value in 2021. Brinkmanship.

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

First messages from the incoming Fin Min, the third in little over one year, mimic President Erdogan's unorthodox views: Will ''not prioritize high interest rates,'' and aim for ''higher investment, production and exports.'' Gimmick. https://t.co/YETOsxEKLC

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

Turkey's main opposition party leader Kılıçdaroğlu calls for a ''first rally'' against the recent economic mismanagement which threw lira off balance and caused 15% loss of value against the USD. Action.

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

Snap commentary on Lira's new 10% crash on Tuesday after Erdogan's and his ruling partner's latest statements. The Vicious Cycle continues... #EMEA #emergingmarkets #Finance #economy https://t.co/D8N6SxBU46

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

The vicious cycle continues... For the background: https://t.co/8pkelIui8c

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

The vicious 'rates decrease->inflation' cycle is likely to eat into Erdogan's own ruling alliance, party and electorate. Despite the odds, Erdogan seems determined to push for more cuts. Why? We argue that his 'old friend' got in the way. For more 👇 https://t.co/8pkelIui8c

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

In light of the lira crash following politically motivated rates cut Ankara is a melting pot. All the signs are present for early elections, inc. those from Erdogan’s own govt. Can the regime hold its ground until 2023? How far can Erdogan go in measures? https://t.co/8pkelIui8c

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

CBRT cuts interest rates by 100 points to 15%, following Erdogan’s anti rates statement on Wed, further weakening TRY in the face of USD. USD/TRY ⬆️ 3.2% after decision, 1 USD=10.90TRY. Eclipse of reason continues.