makiyo

KK

[Siaxares 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 @siaxares]

Day 35 of war with Iran and only 1% of the population have internet.

That 1% isn’t normal citizens. The vast majority are regime agents on white SIM cards — the ones the government still keeps online so they can flood every platform with their narrative.

People like me with Starlink or expensive configs? We’re 1% of that 1%. A tiny, fragile window to the outside world.

And sometimes it feels crushing. Every single day I’m trying to push back against the tsunami of propaganda the regime and its supporters (both inside Iran and abroad) are pumping out.

Every lie, every edited video, every twisted narrative. I screenshot, I translate, I document, I reply, I post, I repost… and I still catch myself thinking: Am I doing enough? Because when almost nobody else can even get online, it starts to feel like the truth is resting on the shoulders of a handful of us who have to fight tooth and nail to still have signal.

If you’re reading this and you still have internet, you’re not just scrolling. You’re one of the last witnesses. Don’t look away. Be our voice.

#DigitalBlackOutIran‌
#KingRezaPahlavi‌ForIran

[紀春生 @ji_chunsheng]

川普这两天都没露面，一直在白宫甚至都没打高尔夫：

“在华盛顿，川普周五整天待在西翼，在椭圆形办公室和相邻的餐厅之间往返，听取搜寻军官任务的简报。

川普取消了周六的打球行程，留在白宫关注进入伊朗寻找失踪飞行员的行动部署。”

[紀春生 @ji_chunsheng]

川普周日接受Fox News电话采访时表示，他对伊朗设下的“周一最后期限”依然有效：伊朗必须尽快与美国达成协议，并开放霍尔木兹海峡，否则将面临针对其电力基础设施的军事打击。

川普称，美方已向参与美伊谈判的伊朗代表提出“有限赦免”方案，试图推动协议在最后期限前落地。但如果德黑兰拒绝让步，美国下一步可能直接“接管伊朗石油”，进一步升级对伊朗的经济与军事施压。

川普还指责伊朗试图拖延谈判时间线，并表示这正是上周德黑兰郊外一座关键桥梁遭袭的背景原因之一。尽管川普称在周一期限前达成协议“有很大机会”，但截至目前，伊朗官方并未公开释放任何接近达成协议的信号。

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Oman and Iran held deputy foreign minister-level talks Saturday to discuss “smooth passage” through the Strait of Hormuz, per the Omani Foreign Ministry.

This formalizes Iran’s April 2 push for a joint Iran-Oman “protocol” to oversee Hormuz transit. Araghchi said last week the future of Hormuz “rests with Iran and Oman.”

At the same time, UK maritime shipping journal Lloyd’s List is tracking three Omani vessels, two oil supertankers and an LNG carrier, transiting the Strait today outside Iran’s approved corridor, sailing unusually close to the Omani coast.

Oman is at the negotiating table and simultaneously sending its own ships around Iran’s control zone. That is what hedging looks like.

[David Tsai/蔡慎坤 @cskun1989]

马兴瑞去年被免去新疆自治区党委书记后，就打发到中央农村工作领导小组坐冷板凳，配合中纪委专案组调查，马兴瑞开始把所有贪腐问题都推给妻子荣丽和秘书李光禄，去年八月，中央每月两次召集政治局委员妻子，包括彭丽媛在内，学习党风廉政建设专题报告，并对权贵太太约法三章，每月交一份汇报材料。夫人整风运动显然不仅针对“家属作风”问题本身，也对政治局委员乃至政治局常委形成某种直接震慑。

[撸毛小狗 @LumaoDoggie]

2026.4月自备梯子指南

最近大家都知道, 中转机场大部分都炸了... 还是回到直连吧

(所有链接全部放二楼)

VPS选择
我个人用过的 vps,推荐三个

0. 特别有钱选 DMIT 或者搬瓦工的 的香港区域, 都是40-80美元一个月的. 300-500G . 这里不详说了. 反正我用不起.

1. 有钱选 DMIT 美西洛杉矶区域. 9.9美元一个月.
选Eyeball 那个套餐就够了,流量多一些,实测下来和Premium差别可以忽略不计. 前者750G流量, 后者500G流量. (双向收费,所以做梯子流量要在页面上的数据除2)

用量少的可以找两个朋友平摊一下. 我主力用这个.

2. 中产的情况. 电信用户, 可以考虑 腾讯云 轻量云 硅谷节点. 回程CN2线路, 99元一年, 丢包还行. 不限量. 缺点是限速30Mbps. 看Youtube 2K视频也够了.
2核心2GB内存. 拿来搭vps跑一些小脚本也不错. 这个价位基本没更便宜的了.

另外一个缺点是, 买了腾讯云后需要DD一下机子, 大概就是重装系统的意思, 把腾讯云的监控软件都杀掉. 不然会因为你翻墙给你掐掉.

注意几个限制条件: 1.电信用户 2.一定只能硅谷节点,其他节点垃圾. 3.先DD机子再装翻墙脚本.

3.穷逼的选择..
0撸.

AWS 申请账户绑定双币信用卡, 会送100美元以上额度. 然后再用这个账号去开AWS lightrail, 类似轻量云. 选东京,或者新加坡节点都行. 弄好后记得锁卡,防止意外扣费.

大概可以免费用一年. 我的新加坡节点来备用. 因为很多defi网站限制美国ip.

这几个vps都可以无条件退款, 所以你要是最后没搭起来, 或者搭起来了发现速度不行, 也不用担心.

爬墙协议:
用甬哥Github的脚本生成就行了, 生成两个
1. Vless-tcp-reality-vision
2. Hysteria2

两个都各有利弊. 前者是tcp的, 但是打开网页那一瞬间会略慢一点点,因为tcp三次握手. 如果你选了美西机房可以感受的到.

后者是基于udp的, 打开主流的西方网站, 现在大多支持QUIC协议了. 少两次握手, 页面加载会快一些. (但是推特不支持,所以还是慢)
其中还涉及你本地到vps是不是多路复用的, 技术问题这就不详说了.
总之你就安装这两个协议,切换一下, 哪个快就用哪个.

安装方法:

1. 去网站上买vps
2. 上传ssh-key或者生成ssh-key, 然后新建机器
3.本地ssh客户端连上vps.
4. DD机器装一个干净的操作系统(如果是腾讯云的)
5. 安装甬哥Github自动翻墙脚本
6.把翻墙脚本对应的端口去vps网站上防火墙打开. Vless-tcp-reality-vision用的是tcp端口, Hysteria2用的是udp端口.
7. 本机安装翻墙客户端. Windows就Clashverge, Android就Nekobox, iOS就 Surge/ShadowRocket

不会的话就把本文喂给ai, 然后把网页截图, 他会一步一步指导你的..

[奶昔🥤 @realNyarime]

面对4月以来监管部门对国内机房施压，要求运营商集团向省公司下发函件，清退涉及VPN翻墙客户，不少机场又重回直连道路，不少推友又开始失联了。对于普通人，租赁不起昂贵的跨境专线，涉及外贸又需要外网需求，只能把目光投向eSIM+国际漫游的选项。

的确，在旅行向eSIM面世之前，国际漫游一直是个昂贵且碰不起的东西。以内地三大运营商为例，每天就是25块钱，一个月下来750块钱换来一个100MB后限速384Kbps的限速，而且还有GFW陪伴着。不过，以我对eSIM的理解，其实接触这玩意不难，甚至像全局代理的VPN，而且不用担心WebRTC等去泄露，缺点就是延迟高、贵。当然我的方案仅作为参考，如果有VPS自建节点的能力，倒是不必那么麻烦。

既然要玩eSIM，简单来说就是卡+套餐。先说卡，就像台式机连WiFi需要无线网卡，需要硬件支持。让传统的手机支持eSIM就需要实体卡，对于手机来说，他就是一张普通电话卡，目前市面上最好和最性价比的分别是 https://t.co/e2Wm2RJIo3 （eSTKme���和 https://t.co/h6CKORPQem （9eSIM）两种，使用优惠码NAIXI打九折，毕竟不是手机厂商原生的，建议额外整个PC/SC读卡器用于备用。再说套餐，除了Trip（携程国际版）、以及 https://t.co/0dS623AmEv （红茶移动）等，还有像 https://t.co/3dHwzeeF0i 这类中国移动国际（CMI）的代理商，价格在100GB 50刀，有效期长达1年且上述优惠码同样适用。当然也有一年268HKD带香港号码的3hk prepaid，具体保号政策不是今天讨论的范畴。

至此，将eSIM二维码写入eUICC中，打开数据漫游，就能访问不带GFW的互联网了。大部分的对华eSIM均为HK或SG的落地，抛开ping0这种娱乐IP风控不谈，多个像iplark等测试纯度都蛮高的。至于解锁，安��用户还可以整个termux跑流媒体解锁脚本，大概能解锁多少、支持多少平台，就像测VPS一样一看便知。
也不用担心违法，因为这不是翻墙，而是通过运营商基站、专线、结算，到为你提供eSIM服务的运营商，再从该运营商的出口进入互联网，换来的坏处就是高延迟。

如果你担心非法信道，建议早点行动起来。上个月Giffgaff等号卡集体消失，保不齐哪一天小白卡等实体eSIM、eUICC芯片转接衍生物都会在市场上消失，受益的只剩原生eSIM设备（外版）以及存量用户了。对我来说，我是没有被4月的这波清退所影响，甚至是早已做好应对措施。既然国家几乎三四成的GDP来自于外贸，就不会做出断网、切断国际漫游等极端行为。至于这些长期eSIM买一个备用还是有意义的，实体卡也可以复写，在还没有局域网模式之前，VPS自建仍是低价、高效、分流等高端玩家的首要选择，而eSIM仅仅是为了防止失联。

[CN Wire @Sino_Market]

🇺🇸🇮🇷TRUMP: Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Trump will hold news conference with the U.S. Military at 1 pm tomorrow — 3 hours after his “48 hour warning” to Iran expires.

[张平 @pingzhang632]

据报道，大约有4000名伊朗高级官��和将军的子女，正生活在所谓“大撒旦”的梦想之中——他们持有美国绿卡或公民身份，在那里发展事业，享受着他们的父辈一生所谴责、打压的自由与开放。

其中包括阿里·拉里贾尼、前总统穆罕默德·哈塔米、现任外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇、阿亚图拉·穆罕默德·亚兹迪（已故伊朗首席大法官，曾判处无数人死刑）、穆罕默德·贾瓦德·扎里夫（前外长），甚至还有“终极屠夫”卡西姆·苏莱曼尼的子女和亲属。

这或许是该政权从未印在标语上的最真实口号：

“美国，滚出去😠……但看在上帝的份上，请把我们的孩子带走🙏🏻🤪。”

对普通大众来说，革命就是屠杀；
但对领导的家属们来说，是头等舱登机牌。🤦🏻‍♂️

[紀春生 @ji_chunsheng]

川普将于美东时间周一中午1点（大概在最后48小时通牒后3小时），在白宫与军方人员一起召开记者会并发贴：

“周二对伊朗来说，将会是“电力设施日”和“桥梁日”二合一的大日子，前所未有！！！赶紧把他妈的海峡打开，你们这帮疯子王八蛋，不然就等着下地狱吧——让我们拭目以待！赞美真主。”

[张平 @pingzhang632]

关键时刻，还是得依靠中情局！

🚨一位特朗普政府高级官员告诉我，在找到那名武器系统官并展开美军救援行动之前，中情局（CIA）首先发起了一场欺骗行动，在伊朗境内散布消息称美军已经找到他，并正在地面转移，准备将其撤离出境。

🚨该官员表示，中情局利用其独特能力展开搜寻，并成功找到这名武器系统官。“这无异于大海捞针，但这一次，‘针’是一位躲在山体裂缝中的勇敢美国人，肉眼几乎无法发现，只有中情局的能力才能定位他。”该官员说。

🚨据该官员称，中情局随后立即将飞行员的精确位置共享给五角大楼、美军以及白宫。

🚨总统随即���令展开紧急救援行动，五角大楼负责执行，而中情局则持续提供实时情报支持整个任务。

[AB Kuai.Dong @_FORAB]

拯救这名美军飞行员的背后，一个无法被敌方识别，且向外界呼救的神器。

美国此次被伊朗打下来的 F-15 战机，飞行员紧急弹射降落后，并未与外界失联，而是启用了名为 CSEL 的生存通信设备。

该设备由波音公司制造，体积小、抗冲击，固定在飞行员背心上，在弹射后自动启动。

不同于传统无线电通话，CSEL 通过发送加密的短数据信号，与外界通信，包括位置信息、伤情状态以及附近有敌人等简单信息。

这些信号采用跳频方式传输，在敌方系统中，看起来更像背景噪音，难以被定位或追踪。

该设备可直接连接军用卫星，将实时数据传输给搜救部队，同时让飞行员保持无线电静默，从而降��暴露风险。

只有在撤离行动临近时，设备才会切换至引导模式，使直升机或其他救援飞机，能够精确锁定其位置。

这意味着，即使身处敌后，飞行员也并非孤立无援，而是始终通过加密网络，与整个美军搜救体系保持连接，同时最大限度避免暴露自身位置。

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says he believes he can "get a deal with Iran" by Monday and that Iran is "negotiating now."

Trump also says he is considering "blowing everything up" and "taking Iranian oil" if Iran does not make a deal "fast."

[紀春生 @ji_chunsheng]

<纽约时报>对今晚营救行动的报道：

坠机后失联的那名美军飞行员，在几乎只有一把手枪可用于自卫的情况下持续躲藏。过去48小时里，找到并救出他一直是美军的最高优先事项。

这场营救行动动用了数百名特种部队人员，以及数十架美军战机、直升机，同时还整合了网络、太空和其他情报侦察能力。

为了阻止伊朗车队接近飞行员藏身区域，美军攻击机对相关车队进行了轰炸和扫射。两名前高级军方官员透露，当美军部队向坠机飞行员位置收拢时，现场爆发了交火。

这名飞行员身上配有紧急定位信标和加密通信设备，用于与前来营救的部队进行协调联络。

一名美军高级官员形容，这次营救任务是美国特种作战历史上“最艰难、最复杂的行动之一”。

而在武器系统官（WSO）被成功救出后，行动又出现最后一个波折：原本计划将突击队员和两名飞行员运送至安全地带的两架运输机，竟然在伊朗一处偏远基地发生故障无法起飞。指挥官最终决定再紧急调入3架新运输机，完成所有美军人员和飞行员的撤离；与此同时，他们炸毁了那两架失效运输机，以防落入伊朗手中。

这架F-15E战斗机是在伊朗一个反政府情绪较强的地区被击落，因此这名飞行员很可能得到了当地民众的掩护和协助。

不过，坠机同样引来了伊朗军方的高度关注。据报道，伊朗部队当时正在大范围搜查该区域。伊朗政府还曾请求当地居民协助搜捕这名坠机飞行员，并悬赏奖励其被捕。

此外，CIA在这类行动中通常也会发挥作用，负责联系愿意帮助受困美军士兵存活下来的平民。这一流程在美方内部被称为“非常规协助回收”（unconventional assisted recovery）。

[Dennis Wilder偉德寧 @dennisw5]

An excellent forward-looking article by PLA expert Phil Saunders.

https://t.co/lQ6L0YDaPa

[Jukan @jukan05]

MS and Google Pursuing LTA with SK Hynix

SK Hynix is entering into long-term supply agreements (LTAs) for DRAM with major global AI companies including Microsoft (MS) and Google. Big Tech is moving to lock in DRAM—a product known for high price volatility—over extended periods. As concerns over DRAM supply shortages intensify amid the global AI infrastructure investment boom, Big Tech is strategizing to secure stable access to memory, a critical component for data centers. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the world's No. 1 and No. 2 DRAM makers, are ramping up capital expenditure in response to the growing supply-demand imbalance.

◇ MS and Google Arrive with Long-Term DRAM Contracts

According to industry sources on the 5th, SK Hynix is in final-stage negotiations with MS on a long-term supply agreement for DDR5. The deal, valued in the tens of trillions of won, would cover a three-year period starting this year. Discussions are reportedly centered on provisions such as a price floor to hedge against significant DRAM ASP declines during the contract period, and terms under which 10–30% of the total contract value would be paid upfront.

SK Hynix is also in discussions with Google on a long-term supply agreement. The negotiations reportedly cover not only its flagship High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) but also commodity DRAM used in servers. MS and Google are also pursuing long-term memory supply agreements with Samsung Electronics. Micron Technology, the U.S.-based No. 3 DRAM maker behind Samsung and SK Hynix, reportedly signed a similar contract last month.

◇ "Securing Volume Matters More Than Price"

A long-term supply agreement is a contract in which volume and pricing are predetermined over an extended period. This type of agreement is typically employed when prices for a specific product surge or supply becomes scarce. Until now, large companies like MS and Google had not entered into annual or multi-year memory supply contracts with memory manufacturers, given that memory is a highly cyclical product subject to significant price volatility.

Nevertheless, Big Tech has recently been approaching Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix with LTA proposals one after another due to an increasingly acute memory shortage. Memory supply has tightened significantly as AI infrastructure investment expands worldwide, and prices have surged accordingly. According to DRAMeXchange, the DDR4 contract price, which stood at just $1.35 in March of last year, skyrocketed to $13.00 by the end of last month.

Moreover, as the AI infrastructure hegemony race appears set to become protracted, analysts note that AI companies have shifted to a strategy of securing volume first. A senior semiconductor industry executive explained, "Right now, the fact that prices have risen so much is secondary—the real issue is that DRAM volume itself is extremely difficult to procure."

◇ Samsung and SK Hynix to Significantly Expand DRAM CAPEX

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have decided to aggressively invest in DRAM capacity this year in light of these conditions. Samsung Electronics is focusing on ramping up volume of 10nm-class 6th-generation (1c) DRAM—used in HBM4—at its main DRAM production base, the Pyeongtaek campus in Gyeonggi Province. At its Hwaseong campus, the company is accelerating process migration to 10nm-class 5th-generation (1b) DRAM, which serves as the base die for SOCAMM and commodity DRAM modules.

SK Hynix is addressing new HBM volume demand centered on M15X, its new production base in Cheongju, North Chungcheong Province. Its headquarters campus in Icheon, Gyeonggi Province, is also aggressively pursuing process migration to its most advanced 1c DRAM node.

Driven by the DRAM supply crunch, both companies' Q1 earnings are estimated to reach all-time highs. In a report on the 3rd, Meritz Securities projected Samsung Electronics' Q1 estimated revenue at KRW 122 trillion and operating profit at KRW 54 trillion. The estimated operating profit is more than triple the previous Q1 record of KRW 14.12 trillion set in 2022. FnGuide estimates SK Hynix's Q1 revenue at KRW 46.6252 trillion and operating profit at KRW 31.5627 trillion—4.2x the KRW 7.4405 trillion reported in the year-ago quarter.

[Archaeo - Histories @archeohistories]

The funeral of Ruhollah Khomeini in June 1989 became one of the largest public gatherings in modern history. 🇮🇷

Following his death, millions poured into Tehran for the funeral. Estimates suggest around 10 million people attended, roughly one-sixth of Iran’s population at the time.

The sheer size of the crowd led to chaos. Mourners surged forward to reach the body, at one point overwhelming security, causing the coffin to fall and forcing officials to regain control. Plans for a traditional procession were abandoned, and the body was ultimately transported by helicopter to the burial site.

At least several people were killed and hundreds injured in the crush of the crowd.

The event reflected the scale of Khomeini’s influence following the 1979 Iranian Revolution and remains one of the most intense and widely documented funerals ever recorded.

The turnout holds a record for the largest proportion of a nation’s population attending a funeral.

© History Pictures

#archaeohistories

[松尾 豪 Go Matsuo @gomatsuo]

これまで頼って���た中東産輸入ナフサの代替として、備蓄/輸入原油を活用し国産ナフサ確保を拡大するほか、余裕のある国から本図の「誘導品」を輸入しようという話。実際、ケミカルタンカーが米国・テキサス州から日本に向けて数隻出航しており、米国産のナフサ/誘導品を確保できつつあるようです。

[华尔街日报中文网 @ChineseWSJ]

#本周热读 伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡附近小岛上修筑的防御工事增强了其对这条关键水道的控制力，而要重新开放��海峡的航运，美国或盟军部队可能需要夺取其中一些岛屿。 https://t.co/9rdAAcDYUd