@jayparsons I’ve been surprised at some of the suburban / secondary markets where condos have worked. Lot of wealthy boomers want to downsize into a managed building near their kids.
@ChadGriffiths If this come to pass it won’t be the owner’s problem (developer + PE). It also won’t be the lender’s problem (debt fund). But it will be a huge problem for whoever is lending to that debt fund (regional bank).
@patefortworth Yup middle tier is in trouble. Megafunds are investing in other funds more and more through secondary businesses, which are growing fast. But none are really making primary commitments - even they can’t raise $ for that
@patefortworth This is dated thinking. The mega funds (BX, Brookfield) are buying entire vertically integrated REITs and platforms, becoming vertically integrated themselves. But the next tier of funds ($1-2B) are too small for that and still have double promote - and cant raise $ because of it
@TheRealEstateG6 Looking at it on an NOI basis in scenario 1 but on a value (ie capped NOI) basis in scenario 2 is misleading. You can make your point without contorting the math Mr. God
@HighyieldHarry Some will survive as specialists with stagnant AUM, some will be acquired by bigger firms with more capital than deals, some will die. Happened to hedge funds over last 10 years and now happening to privates
@BarryRoland19 Control over leverage and exit. And some private owners can create real operational value in certain property types. But vast majority can’t.
@bobbyfijan Population inflows / favorable demographics + housing shortage pushed rents up…it wasn’t the unit changes. Everyone has a story of “getting underwritten rents without putting the $ in” - that’s proof imo
@resetbasis PE still being picky so have to have something unique. And class C distress is not unique right now…at all. Not supporting it just how it is.
@DailyREITBeat Think you’re conflating investment M&A (like the BX deal) with strategic M&A (Artemis / Bridge deals). Very different underlying drivers for these.
@credealjunkie Incentives here are…terrible? If you buy for $100 and sell for $100 4 yrs later you pocket $20 (plus fee) and your LPs get $80 (20% loss). Cmon.