Captain Sum Ting Wong

Investor gathering the best information from the best sources. Infamous #29er. Downstream weirdo. Occasional (Regular) Shitposter.

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@buckrogersmd The average person has no idea how much of a headache being a landlord is.

Hire a management company? They take all the profit, you get all the risk.

30 Year Treasury is currently ~5% guaranteed for 30 years and they want to go chase deadbeats for missed rent for 4%?

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

This is the exact problem.

Nice houses didn’t just disappear. At 6.5% interest, 20% down, and 1.5% property taxes, this house is 5441 per month. At 30% gross pay, that’s 217K per year. That’s 86 percentile income in Dallas.

Plus 157K down.

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@bankersguide @VladTheInflator aLyS bEaCh wEnT uP tHiS yEaR

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@buckrogersmd There's an overhang of millions of boomer households in the coming 5-10 years. Most of those are the 3K-4K mcmansion boomer shitboxes that don't have to force sell, and are sitting for 1.2M+. Sitting.

Death has a way of "force selling"

70% of inherited houses go to market.

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@buckrogersmd Right now you have a wide bid/ask. Sellers want top dollar, very few buyers can afford that (on an income basis) or are willing to pay that.

Prices remain stagnant because few HAVE to sell. But forced selling flips those dynamics rapidly.

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@buckrogersmd But simultaneously, you now have 20-35% of mortgages that were sold under the guise of "date the rate", with payments too high to afford long term, and principals too high to cover in this current market.

A simple white collar recession will cause a flood of forced selling.

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@LinkedInLunat1c Diabolical

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@bankersguide @VladTheInflator Base money supply is not up 200% in 6 years, so it makes no sense to then attribute that price action to money printing.

Lending created temporary money (debt) that either needs to be earned in the future to pay off, or collapses in a deflationary spiral.

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@endurancetest @insiwest Some would classify them as “future buyers”

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@KathuriaManan I guess there’s always https://t.co/Exg3A4n0RU.

More gig worker supply with decreasing demand though, eventually the arb between that and unemployment will close.

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@KathuriaManan Tic-tocking away while a sector that makes up 15-20% of gdp runs at 3/4 capacity, pretending that won’t inevitably lead to a recession in and of itself.

Once recession officially starts, there will be forced selling.

Who is riding Ubers if everyone is an uber driver?

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@KathuriaManan The nuts and bolts of it, is it’s no different than any other illiquid market. People saw a number on a screen (zestimate) and grew attached to it. They don’t want to sell for less, and won’t, unless they are forced to.

So meanwhile, we sit with existing home sales at 75% norm

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@KinskiVHerzog @TheDataBased @EricSpracklen A 166 year house has stood the test of time.

A 57 year old house is about to start showing 50+ years of under maintenance and decay.

This isn’t a Victorian classic. This is average shelter built on the fly 57 years ago.

[Captain Sum Ting Wong @RFitz8990]

@ESGhound @James_Duade @JoshCrumb @_riskFULL @Bprivateers69 @anaparastasum @KathuriaManan Please do oh bright one... Enlighten me!