Herman Trading

NQ, ES & Gold futures | Probability over opinion | ICT + backtests | TradingView indicators | |

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

London session. 62% probability for the short side.
I took shorts only. +2R on the day.

This is the full model.

1. Intelligent Balance Probability Map at 2 AM NY: 62% short, 38% long
2. Bias set: shorts and shorts only
3. Wait for a sweep reversal with confirmation
4. Short #1: too early, too aggressive. -1R
5. Short #2: small but valid confirmed sweep reversal. Entry
6. TP toward the more probable side. Level reached: +3R

Basic ICT idea, done with numbers: trade toward the more probable side, and only with confirmation.

Full walkthrough in the video.

After the first short stopped out, would you have taken the second one?

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

Hey @grok

What's the SIMPLEST trading strategy that's actually profitable? Be honest.

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

The receipts: Codex at 7% left, with 6 days to go before the reset.

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

93% of a weekly AI allowance.
Gone in under a day.

ChatGPT Pro 5x in Codex, running inside Herman AI Studio.

Claude Max isn't keeping up either.
Grok: subscription upgraded too.

Codex alone, last 30 days: 2.1B tokens.

Where it all goes: turning business ideas into working products, at full speed.

The result: 2 more online stores live.
Not trading related.

Receipts in the reply.

Which one hits its limit first for you: Codex, Claude or Grok?

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

@CoolTradeAI Yes. More often than not.

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

𝗪𝗲𝗱𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗮𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗡𝗬 𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗼𝗻 𝗡𝗤.
𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗼𝗻 𝗹𝗲𝗳𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝟵𝟴.𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲.

I pulled this from my session study on NQ 1-minute data, 2015-2026.

The conditions, all known before London opens:
→ It's Wednesday
→ Yesterday's New York session closed bearish
→ Question checked at 02:00 NY: will London (02:00-08:00 NY) take the previous day high?

What happened:
→ All years: London did NOT take it on 98.0% of those days (n 255)
→ 2022-2026 only: 99.0% (n 105)
→ 2018 to 2022 and 2024 to 2026: 100% every year

The honest part.
The distance from price to the high already explains most of it: distance alone gives 91.5%. The Wednesday + red NY day filter adds 7.5 pp on top of that.

That edge was positive in 11 of 12 years. The one exception: 2017, at 88.24%.

How I read it:
This is context for the London session, not an entry signal. It shows up about 1.8 days a month. It tells you what London usually does with yesterday's high, not where to get in.

Past results do not guarantee future results. Research, not financial advice.

On a Wednesday like this, do you treat the previous day high as off the table for London, or still plan for a sweep?

Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, NQ Session Study v2 (nq-session-study-v2), 2015-2026

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

@SeanWillTrades Imagina trading without it - not knowing where the price is most likely heading to.

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

London session. 62% probability for the short side.
I took shorts only. +2R on the day.

This is the full model.

1. Intelligent Balance Probability Map at 2 AM NY: 62% short, 38% long
2. Bias set: shorts and shorts only
3. Wait for a sweep reversal with confirmation
4. Short #1: too early, too aggressive. -1R
5. Short #2: small but valid confirmed sweep reversal. Entry
6. TP toward the more probable side. Level reached: +3R

Basic ICT idea, done with numbers: trade toward the more probable side, and only with confirmation.

Full walkthrough in the video.

After the first short stopped out, would you have taken the second one?

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

@Donnieblocks @grok Indeed. Noted that myself. Good eye

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

Hey @grok

On NQ futures, how often does the classic ICT Power of 3 day actually happen: Asia accumulation, London manipulation, New York expansion?

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

WHOP: https://t.co/nx6ewlwunl

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

@tmgpi Absolutely
Can't agree more

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

@Enhale11 @grok True.
Seen it as well

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

@Trader_KOC Recently applied for OpenAI creator program - hope to be part of it. Once have unlimited tokens - local tesco dont have enough coffee to keep me going.

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

𝗪𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗡𝗤 𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝘆𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗱𝗮𝘆. 𝗡𝗼 𝗣𝗗𝗛 𝗼𝗿 𝗣𝗗𝗟 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗻 𝗯𝘆 𝟬𝟴:𝟬𝟬.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗳𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝗻 𝟴𝟲.𝟲% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀.

From my NQ Daily Study, NQ futures 2015-2026.

The setup at 08:00 NY:
1. The previous day was wide (range above 1.3 TR)
2. Neither the previous day's high nor its low was taken by 08:00

What followed: the overnight high (Asia + London) was taken out after 08:00.

2022-2026: 86.6% of 82 days
Baseline for the same distance: 70.9%
Above baseline in 11 of 12 years

Timing: most often in the NY AM block, median 10:43 NY.

TR = median range of the previous 24 clean days.
Historical frequency, not a trade signal. No entries, stops or costs modelled.

Before the open, do you check yesterday's range or only the levels?

Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, NQ Daily Study (nq-daily-study), 2015-2026

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

@ReggieTheOwl @tradingview Perhaps that was the ultimate goal? Not sure

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

🚨 TradingView Section 22 UPDATE:
November 1 is NOT a migration deadline.

I have it in writing from @tradingview 's Creator Team.

After weeks of uncertainty around commercial Invite-Only Scripts, I've received an official response.

Here's what's CONFIRMED:

✅ November 1 is ONLY the deadline to contact TradingView, not to complete the transition.
✅ NOTHING changes for creators or customers on November 1.
✅ Existing Lifetime and fixed-term customers keep access without interruption or extra payment under the upcoming transition.
✅ Existing subscriptions remain valid until their end date.
✅ The 100-boost requirement to apply for the TradingView Marketplace has been DROPPED.

TradingView says the new program will be more flexible for vendors.

BUT the final commercial terms, transition requirements and effective date are still pending.

A public announcement and FAQ are expected before the end of October.

This is welcome progress, but the full picture isn't here yet.

To all Pine Script developers selling premium indicators:

Does this change your plans to stay with TradingView, or are you waiting for the final terms?

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

🚨 TradingView killed the $29.95/user fee drama - but replaced it with something MUCH bigger.

From Nov 1:

• Commercial Invite-Only scripts/indicators move to Marketplace
• Whop → TradingView paid access effectively ends
• 7-day refund window
• No grandfathered pricing
• Payout settlement can take up to 30 days
• 0% platform fee today - but not guaranteed forever

TradingView is now taking much more control over the paid Pine Script ecosystem.

Better deal - or just a different kind of platform risk?

Stay with @tradingview , move to @NinjaTrader / cTrader / MetaTrader / Sierra Chart, or build your own?

#TradingView

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

Yes - but in a slightly different way. Working with 3 main AI's (Vlaude MAX, ChatGpt Pro and Grok Bot Super) I had to create 2 things: 1. Central Brain - database with informations (local AI Studio dashbord and Githu) 2. Playbook - One master set of rules ovverriding other agents rules. Works better now.

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

I've just applied to become an OpenAI Codex Ambassador. 🤞

My biggest motivation? Bringing more value to this community.

Behind the scenes, I've been putting countless hours into building the Next Generation Herman Trading Terminal with Codex.

The vision? Backtesting trading strategies, validating ideas with real data, and eventually turning proven strategies into automated trading systems.

But this isn't just about building something for myself.

I want to bring more knowledge, tools, research, and real value to the Herman Trading community. Share the wins, the failures, and everything I learn along the way.

The application is submitted. Now we wait!

Herman Trading community, can I count on you to keep your fingers crossed for me?

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

@SeanWillTrades @tradingview You know it is. Are you using it as well?

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

🚨UPDATE: Sweep Reversal Map+ [Herman],
3.4K boosts on TradingView.
Now it shows only the side you trade.

New in the Inputs:
→ Show LONGS on/off
→ Show SHORTS on/off

Short bias for the session? Turn longs off.
Only the reversal zones above price stay on the chart.
Long bias? Flip it.
No bias? Keep both.

The logic underneath is the same ICT liquidity sweep model:
1. Price sweeps a confirmed swing high or low
2. Reclaims the swept level
3. Closes beyond local structure
4. The reversal zone prints, on your chart timeframe and on up to 2 higher timeframes

In the video: MNQ 30s, longs switched on, the long zone appears at the morning low. Then the bar replay of that move.

Free and open source. Link below.

Do you trade both sides of NQ, or only with your bias?

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

Link: https://t.co/hGmfEiNQpc

[Herman Trading @RHerman]

Longs only on/off
Shorts only on/off