Robert J. Sutherland

Christian. Dad. Grampa. Explorer. Trail angel along the Appalachian Trail. ( Je suis sans peur.

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

Bon chance.

[Casual Study @casualstudy023]

曾用2700万美元一个月狂赚26亿美元、创下100倍神话的华尔街传奇大佬比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman），前两天在CNBC放话：他手里有两只股票还能再涨10倍，是整个美股赔率最不对称的投资。

说的就是房利美（FNMA）和房地美（FMCC）。

很多人以为他是看特朗普上台才跑出来蹭热度，但去查美国证监会的13D档案，这笔仓位他已经死拿了13年：

2013年10月，他从1.54美元开始扫货，砸了4亿美元把两家公司买满近10%，房利美均价2.29美元，房地美均价2.14美元。

买进去就是十年寒冬。
2021年最高法院判股东败诉，单日暴跌32%；2022年底最低跌到0.35美元，账面浮亏85%。但他一股没卖，硬扛到今天。

他为什么死磕这两家公司？因为背后有一本极荒诞的账：

08年次贷危机两房被政府接管，财政部前后注资1914亿美元救命，拿走10%优先股和79.9%的普通股认股权证。
结果2012年两房恢复大赚后，政府突然修改协议搞“净值清扫”，把两房所有利润100%全部上交，且不算还本金。
到现在，两房累计上交了3010亿美元，比借的钱多还了一千多亿，但账面上反而还欠财政部3000多亿美元。

阿克曼赌的翻盘方案只有三步：
1. 财政部认账，承认已交的3010亿算还清优先股；
2. 政府行使认股权证，拿走79.9%普通股；
3. 直接让两房重返纽交所挂牌。
按他测算，这样政府能再赚3000亿美元，普通股每股能值45到50美元——对比现价4.21美元，正好是10倍。

但按4.21美元的现价倒推，市场给的成功概率其实只有7%左右。卡脖子的主要是三点：

一是财政部如果不肯注销那3000多亿优先股、而是直接债转股，老股东会被稀释殆尽；
二是一旦私有化削弱了政府兜底预期，债券买家要求更高利息，就会推高全美房贷利率，这是谁都不敢碰的政治红线；
三是必须在特朗普任期结束前完成，而下个月就是中期选举。

2块多的成本拿了13年，年化还不到5%。这到底是十倍黄金底，还是一张完全看政客脸色的期权？做了个7分钟的视频，把当年的建仓档案和这笔账完整理了一遍。

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

I don't care who you are ...
this is funny.

[Mary Katharine Ham @mkhammer]

I don’t care about the NBA at all but I will watch Charles Barkley every time he crosses my feed.

[AG @AGHamilton29]

For those keeping track, at least 4 widely cited polling firms have been exposed for fabricating or manipulating polling data:

- Wedgewood polls
- Median Strategies
- PSI
- SoCal Strategies

These polls, and the surrounding comemntary/reporting, had real impacts on races.

[AP @AFP9714]

This is an extremely bullish sentiment. Bill Ackman gave us an indication of the Trump administration's thinking. At this price level, these stocks are stupidly cheap quoting Ackman's post a while back.

After watching this interview, I am more convinced of the timeline I was thinking of, although now I find that timeline quite conservative in view of this information from Bill.

Initially I argued that Trump most likely will wait till we are close to the warrant expiration for him to release and relist $FNMA and $FMCC. This will minimize the political firestorm that will follow the release as he can argue he has no choice but to release otherwise the warrants will expire and that will deny American people hundreds of billions of dollars of windfall. I argued we may start to see movement in Q2 next year and full speed ahead in Q3/Q4.

However, I think given that Sep 2028 is so close to the presidential election, releasing the twins so close to that date may not be politically prudent. The ideal timeframe therefore for release is either Q4 2027 or Q1 2028, hence Bessent's statement of next year or the following year. Releasing the twins in Q2 2028 is cutting it too close. Ideally, the release needs to happen Q4 2027 but in case there are still open items, maybe Q1 2028 is still OK. You want to release the twins with reasonable time gap to the presidential election to allow for the political dust surrounding the release to settle while the nation moves on to other REAL pressing issues. (Democrats will try to lie and gaslight about how bad releasing the twins are, but the American people are smart to see through the lies.)

Given this release date timeframe, we should start seeing movement Q1 next year and quite possibly right after midterms as Bill Ackman suggested. You need at least a full year to prepare for releasing and relisting the twins.

Borrowing Bill Ackman's post a while back, at this pricing level, $FNMA and $FMCC are stupidly cheap.

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

Woe to those who call evil good and good evil.
🙏

[New York Post @nypost]

Judge orders fishing influencer to erase social media pics after he illegally nets great white https://t.co/l8a4NAxtWO

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

😎

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

Some thoughts on Fannie $FNMA and Freddie Mac $FMCC

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

@CBSSportsGang @JJWatt @NFLonCBS @tracywolfson He's an excellent choice. Depth of understanding & natural talent. Not obsequios. Makes watching the game more enjoyable.

[WSB-TV @wsbtv]

Georgia inmates used fake warrants to swindle victims out of $464K https://t.co/os0KJb3YxJ

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

@SteveJBurge Hahaha
Your unique customer care is genuine.

Hal and Majel Barrett are probably thinking, "Why didn't my data suggest that?"
✌️

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

@JosephSlife Sorry to hear your pope has cancer. Praying he'll be healed and give God the glory.

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

@ATLNewsFirst Thank you for alerting me to the news about this shooting. It helps me find another source that doesn't make it stupidly hard to link to more information, as does this site.

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

Stunning

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

Elon Musk often says: "Patents are for the weak."

Why does he say that? In 2014, Tesla opened up all its patents. Anyone could use them. Everyone thought it was a PR stunt. It was actually a declaration of war. Elon's point was that patents mostly serve to slow down progress, protect the positions of giant corporations, and make lawyers rich. Not to innovate.

His logic is simple: if your competitive advantage lives inside a legal document, you're already dead. The only real moat is your speed of innovation. If you move faster than everyone else, you don't need patents. If you need patents to survive, it means you've stopped moving fast enough.

The strong build. The weak file.

And AI is about to make that sentence true for the entire economy.

Take biotech. For 50 years, starting a biotech company meant a PhD, ten years in a lab, access to closely guarded knowledge, millions before your first proof of concept, and a network in the right academic and regulatory circles. Knowledge was scarce, access was scarce, and that scarcity was worth billions.

That scarcity is dying.

I genuinely believe we're entering a world where anyone will be able to start a biotech company. A 19-year-old with AI agents will be able to explore molecular spaces that entire labs used to spend years mapping. Trade secrets, credential rents, access rents, positional rents: all of it is about to blow up.

And look at what's already happening. Some of the first calls to "urgently regulate AI agents" are coming from established biotech players. Coincidence? When your business model depends on scarce knowledge and knowledge becomes free, you're left with only two weapons: the patent and the regulator.

The two weapons of the weak.

Here's what's coming. A wave of panic. Dozens of labs and incumbents retreating behind their patents, filing lawsuits, and above all pouring money into regulatory capture. They won't try to build better. They'll try to make it illegal for anyone else to build.

Because the truth is, a lot of people in business were never strong. They were protected. They never won on product, on innovation, on speed of execution. They won because the market was locked. Because attacking their industry required hundreds of millions of dollars, years of approvals, and armies of lawyers. The wall was never their talent. The wall was regulation.

And when the wall comes down, we find out who actually knew how to build.

This isn't just biotech. Banking. Insurance. Law. Healthcare. Energy. Hardware. Education. Defense. Almost every industry where incumbents were sleeping behind barriers to entry is about to get hit by thousands of founders able to attack their business from every angle at once. With teams of 5 people and an army of agents.

Everyone gets to play now.

My conviction, and I'll say it plainly: a huge chunk of the S&P 500 could be completely flushed in the next 5 years. Not because those companies will make mistakes. Because their competitive advantage was never real. It was built on how hard it was to get in, and that difficulty is disappearing.

The weak will cry danger. They'll talk about safety, risk, disaster. Sometimes they'll be right on a specific point. But most of the time, what they're protecting isn't the public. It's their rent.

What's coming isn't a collapse. It's a renaissance. The biggest explosion of value creation in history, driven by people who were always told they weren't allowed to play.

Patents are for the weak.

And the weak are about to have a very bad decade.

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

.@EMCSecurity @JacksonEMC

I'm grateful that #EMCSecurity sent Wayne to my home to repair my alarm system. He was great. All is well. Again.

Wayne is a tremendous asset to your company, and to my home security.

[MichiganPodcast @MichiganPodcast]

LSU paid over a hundred million dollars to get rid of Brian Kelly, hire Lane Kiffin, and assemble this roster. Only to have a worse record now than it did last year through six games. Penn State spent 50 million to buy out James Franklin last season for losing to Northwestern and starting 3-3, only to hire a coach who lost even worse to Northwestern and also started this season 3-3. Michigan has committed $43 million to Kyle Whittingham and Jason Beck, and $40 million to this year's roster, only to have the exact same record it had last year at this time with Sherrone Moore and an even worse offense.

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

.@KirkHerbstreit @ABCNetwork

Really appreciated Kirk's work during the Georgia game. He made the game better with his insightful comments and with his pauses.

Thanks.

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

@EWErickson Amen

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

@ATLNewsFirst Whose idea was it to make your links harder to hit?

We have dozens of easier ways to get the same information.
😳🫣

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

.@comcast

3:15 PM. Internet down. Like a dozen other days.

Today? In the middle of an Amazon order.

The most reliable aspect of
#Comcast internet? It's unreliable.

Beautiful afternoon, not a cloud in the sky.

No internet.
🫣🥴

[Robert J. Sutherland @RJSutherland]

@access_northga @GABroadcasters Well done!