Reece

G10 Macro Trader

[Reece @RKMacro]

A good start to July with the EA.

Looking forward to next week.
$xauusd $Gold

[Reece @RKMacro]

Month 1 running the Gold EA live.

June results:

✅ +$2,466 profit (£1,856.89)
✅62.46% win rate
✅ 2.60 profit factor
✅20/20 green days
✅ 570 trades on XAUUSD
$XAUUSD #Gold

[Reece @RKMacro]

Month 1 running the Gold EA live.

June results:

✅ +$2,466 profit (£1,856.89)
✅62.46% win rate
✅ 2.60 profit factor
✅20/20 green days
✅ 570 trades on XAUUSD
$XAUUSD #Gold

[Reece @RKMacro]

@sam_kb_ Amazing!

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

"The markets are like a smorgasbord. You can go back and fill your plate at any time." Meaning: the markets will always be there. Don't worry about missed moves. It's OK to take time off. New opportunity always await!

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

SENATORS HAVE REACHED A DEAL TO END THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN: POLITICO

[Ken Chigbo @realkenchigbo]

Why USD is rebounding right now…

1. The pendulum swung too far.
Markets had fully priced in a series of Fed rate cuts stretching through 2026, pure over-optimism. When expectations get that stretched, they have to rebalance. The dollar was oversold on sentiment alone.

2. Powell pushed back.
At the last FOMC meeting, Chair Powell said another December cut is far from a foregone conclusion. So basically, the Fed isn’t racing to zero. That single line flipped rate expectations and gave the dollar air.

3. Macro disappointment + re-pricing.
When the market’s expecting nonstop cuts and doesn’t get them, you get a violent unwind. Traders scramble to cover shorts.

4. Trade truce relief.
Trump and Xi agreed to a one-year U.S.–China trade truce, including tariff relief and renewed agricultural purchases. That reduced global uncertainty, lifted U.S. growth expectations.

5. Technical reset.
On the monthly chart, the DXY bounced off a key multi-month demand zone, a textbook technical alignment with the fundamental shift.

6. The week ahead, watch the Fed speakers.
A line-up of Fed officials are due to speak this week.
If their tone aligns with Powell’s pushback on aggressive rate-cut bets, that would reinforce the dollar’s recovery. However, if they sound more dovish, we could see the rebound pause or fade near-term.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

🚨 POWELL: ANOTHER CUT IN DECEMBER IS FAR FROM ASSURED

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

*FED SAYS SCHMID DISSENTED IN FAVOR OF NO RATE CHANGE

*FED SAYS MIRAN DISSENTED IN FAVOR OF HALF-POINT CUT

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

For the reasons I have discussed before, I am a huge optimist about the significant productivity and growth upside of AI and, by implications, its potential to help address many other challenges facing current and future generations.
Having said that, this Wall Street Journal headline speaks to a key risk (one of four) that is not yet being mitigated sufficiently: the balance between labor displacement and labor enhancement. It’s a joint responsibility that needs to be addressed on a more timely basis and far more effectively.
#economy #ai #markets #growth #Productivity @WSJ

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

CHINA AND US REACH TRADE CONSENSUS

China’s Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang announced that China and the United States reached a consensus on key trade issues after “candid and constructive” talks in Kuala Lumpur.

Discussions covered export controls, tariff suspensions, fentanyl-related measures, anti-drug cooperation, trade expansion, and US Section 301 fees.

Li said both sides will now begin internal approval procedures.

[Ken Chigbo @realkenchigbo]

Risk-on start to the week

US & China have agreed a framework trade deal ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting, including:

- Averted 100% tariffs on Chinese goods

- China resuming US soybean imports

- Deferral on rare-earth export curbs

Markets love it.

AUD & NZD higher, China optimism = Aussie & Kiwi boost.

JPY weaker as safe-haven demand fades.

Gold gaps lower on stronger risk appetite.

Trade peace = risk-on = commodities & cyclical FX bid.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

ADP REPORT: NUMBER OF JOBS CREATED IN AUGUST WAS REVISED TO -3,000 FROM 54,000

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

Erika Kirk: "[Our daughter said] 'Mommy, I missed you.' I said, I missed you too. She goes, 'where's daddy?' She's 3."

"I said, 'Baby, daddy loves you so much. He's on a work trip with Jesus, so he can afford your blueberry budget.'"

😭💔

[Zach Henry @zhenryaz]

Charlie, your voice inspired a generation and captivated a nation. We’ll never forget you. Rest in peace, patriot.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

A busy week ahead for the global economy and markets ... after one dominated by fiscal issues, particularly in the United States and the United Kingdom.
Wednesday marks the end of US President Trump’s 90-day delay to the individual country tariffs announced on "Liberation Day" in April. The actual outcome remains uncertain given ongoing trade talks and lingering concerns in Washington about "empty shelves." Additionally, watch for the Federal Reserve's FOMC minutes, comments from Fed officials, and the latest budget data.
Europe has a busy week, including EU meetings, the ongoing and somewhat "stumbling" China-EU trade talks, and remarks from European Central Bank officials. Data releases will include retail sales, German CPI inflation, and industrial production.
The Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report, expected this week, is always a good read for insights into the financial system's resilience.
Finally, in developing economies, keep an eye on the release of details from the OPEC+ meeting regarding the increase in oil production, and the outcome of the BRICS meeting in Brazil.
#economy #markets

[Reece @RKMacro]

@_toughcookie_ PCE data expected to be bullish dxy. EUR and GBP been on a wild ride, I expect EUR and GBP should be lower.

[Reece @RKMacro]

@_toughcookie_ Amazing returns 👌

[Merlin @_XXC2_]

The tariff news is nothing that should come by suprise. Trump needs some room to negotiate with Merz next week. There is no way these tariffs are the final EU ones and they never will get introduced by june first.

Come on, thats a sunday.

[PiQ @PiQMarkets]

PUTIN:

TRUMP SAID RUSSIA FAVOURS PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF UKRAINE CRISIS - TASS

RUSSIA READY TO WORK WITH KIEV ON A MEMORANDUM ON FUTURE PEACE TALKS - TASS CITES PUTIN

CEASEFIRE WITH UKRAINE POSSIBLE ONCE AGREEMENTS ARE REACHED - PUTIN

‘WE'RE GENERALLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK" - RIA

RUSSIA AND UKRAINE MUST FIND COMPROMISES THAT SUIT BOTH SIDES - TASS CITES PUTIN

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: Moody's: United States ratings cut to Aa1 from AAA.