BackDoorCover Sports

Contrarian biased bettor: I I blend models + spot systems + market analysis to isolate value where public perception creates dislocations. Free content

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

✅Medvedev +4.5 gm vs Djoko (-110) $1.1 / $1.0
✅Medvedev ML (+210) $0.5 / $1.05

Closing it out strong! Epic performance from Medvedev to finally break through the Big 3 wall in a Final, and a nice little cash for team BackDoor to wrap up what was a 🔥 4 days of tennis action.

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

#TennisBets - US Open Men's F

Med +4.5 gm vs Djoko (-110) $1.1 / $1.0
Med ML (+210) $0.5 / $1.05

The gap between Djoko and the Med / Zverev contingent has narrowed significantly on Hard Court data over the past 2Y. Still edge to Djoko, but value is on Med - expect a close match

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

@PhilRiles @mackenrivers @jasonwhitlock Weren’t we all *supposedly* created in his image wearing… absolutely nothing?

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

@WadsterTips Doesn't deserve to win the way he's playing now but IF he can tighten up the backhand errors I think he can turn this match in his favor... its just likely gonna too much to ask to take 3 in a row from 2-0 down if Rublev serves out this set

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

US Open 🎾- Norrie vs Rublev (R4 - D8)
->Norrie ML (-150) $1.5 / $1.0
->Norrie ML x Alcaraz -1.5 set (+138) $1.0 / $1.38
->Norrie O3.5 set (in 2 parlays)

Rublev might be a better *tennis player* but Norrie has more WAYS to win points in this specific H2H

Full Match Preview⬇️

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

@WadsterTips Yeah agreed 100%. Super tight / nervous early and its got him VERY leaky on the backhand side, despite points kind of going the way he wants them to. Roof closing should speed the court up a bit = probably good for Rublev all else equal, who knows how things change after a delay

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

US Open 🎾 - Pegula vs Kvitova (R4 - D8)
Pegula ML vs Kvitova (-120) $2.4 / $2.0

Pegula has massively improved her game vs. the last time these two played a H2H - her baseline consistency will apply alot of pressure on an opponent who has shown wobbles thus far in the tournament

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

@WadsterTips Could very well be! 12 PM match time will help him a bit in that regard re: faster court.

We'll start to see how this plays out once these guys begin to get more familiar with the patterns the other is employing as we move into 2nd + 3rd sets

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

US Open 🎾 (Rd 4 - Day 8):

Full bet card with unit weightings for US Open action on Monday 9/5.

We got a sweat on Collins Outright / Quarter bets tonight as well, I have a feeling Sabalenka is ultimately the biggest hurdle on that adventure

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

@SairajRiser O10.5 / O12.5 1st set was the only thing I thought could make some since here with Nadal starting slow recently, but the pricing on that isn't as attractive as I'd want it to be

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

US Open 🎾(Rd 4 - Day 8):

Here's what I'm honing in on today with implied probabilities for each line:

A couple units @ the ML plays + Alcaraz -6 gm. Will use Alcaraz -1.5 set (-250) and the O3.5 set lines in round robin style 2x parlay combos together

Bet card coming shortly

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

@SairajRiser Don't want to touch it. Clearly improved a lot since the last H2H and he's got the tools to make things difficult if he shows up with his A game as Nadal is off his best level right now, but always potential for a clunker with Tiafoe and he almost cramped in 3 sets vs Schwartz.

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

Match Preview - US Open (Rd 4 - D7):
->Kudermetova / Jabeur O21.5 gm (-120) $2.4 / $2.0
->1st Set O10.5 (+245) $0.4 / $1.0
->1st Set O12.5 (+400) $0.25 / $1.0

Super even, serve dominant matchup with girls that tend to run hot and cold within a match (momentum swings). Over party

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

Match Preview - US Open (Rd 4 - D7):
->Med / Kyrgios O40.5 (-120) $2.4 / $2.0
->Kyrgios ML (+150) $1.5 / $1.0
->1S O10.5 (+120) x Gauff $0.54 / $1.0
->1S O12.5 (+165) x Gauff $0.41 / $1.0

Pure coin flip given H2H priors and some changes Kyrgios has made, I'll take +150. Notes⬇️

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

Match Preview - US Open (Rd 4 - D7):
Busta -3.5 gm vs Khach (-115) $1.15 / $1.0
Busta ML x Gauff ML (-108) $2.16 / $2.0

Khach has owned the H2H on HC but Busta was a different player at that time - he is the form player in this matchup, consistency + aggr hand him a big edge

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

Match Preview - US Open (Rd 4 - D7):
Samsonova -3.5 gm vs Tomljanovic (-115) $1.15 / $1.0
Samso ML x Gauff ML (-105) $2.1 / $2.0

Tomljanovic overmatched here if the Samsonova of the L3 months shows up here. Nerves + a draining W vs Serena set the stage for some lopsided scores

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

@Ace_Previews One of the tastier spots I've seen on a +400 / 5.0 ML underdog in a very long time
https://t.co/8ZdurShTyp

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

Match Preview - US Open (Rd 3 - D6):
Moutet +2.5 sets vs Ruud (-125) $2.5 / $2.0
Moutet +1.5 set (+200) $0.75 / $1.5
Moutet ML (+425) $0.35 / $1.5

Moutet exactly the type of player who can make Ruud uncomfortable + Ruud has thrown in some duds vs. LH recently. LOVE this set up

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

Ruud rarely finishes best-of-5 matches in 3 sets + his forehand dominant game can hit the skids against LH's attack his weaker side consistently.

Moutet CAN draw Ruud off the baseline into uncomfortable territory... IF drop shot is landing then this devolves into a messy match

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

Match Preview - US Open (Rd 3 - D6):
Moutet +2.5 sets vs Ruud (-125) $2.5 / $2.0
Moutet +1.5 set (+200) $0.75 / $1.5
Moutet ML (+425) $0.35 / $1.5

Moutet exactly the type of player who can make Ruud uncomfortable + Ruud has thrown in some duds vs. LH recently. LOVE this set up

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

O34.5 gm works as well for the ML pairing, saw that one @ +150 on Bovada

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

#TennisBets - US Open (Rd 4 - Day 7)
Berrettini ML x O3.5 set (+140 @ Bet365) $1.0 / $1.4

Fokina presents a tougher challenge than prior opponents for Matteo, he could make this a messy match. There are also clear reasons why he will struggle to actually win...

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

Used some Gauff ML in 2x parlays (specifically with Busta and Samsonova ML's to pair with spread bets) and then took some Full Match + 1st Set Overs in Medvedev vs Kyrgios --> I'm likely going to end up on Kyrgios ML, just wanna watch how that line dances for the next 5 hours

[BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple]

#TennisBets - US Open (Rd 4 - Day 7)

Bet card with unit staking for R4 - D7 is attached below.

Think Moutet gives Ruud a lot of trouble today stylistically / Berrettini wins but it takes 4 sets / Busta form ramp supersedes H2H history / Samsonova in an absolute smash spot