R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱

Husband, father. Sports & political junkie. Individual freedom is paramount. Capitalism works. Collectivism always fails. Where is John Galt?

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@Jimfrombaseball Absolutely! Not only a great baseball biography, a great biography period.

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@dannogallagher7 He thinks he was paid for hitting 48 bombs in minor league parks in Covid-ball 2021? Is this a case of take the money and run or a case of a tone-deaf, pampered athlete? Either way, my lord.......

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@KeeganMatheson @MitchBannon Vladdy's theme Song has to be, "Take The Money And Run"
Steve Miller Band

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@CheriDiNovo The USA in its infinite wisdom is not a party to the Rome Statute and does not recognize the legitimacy or jurisdiction of the ICC. Surprised you don't know this, unless you're just playing your partisan political games.

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@athletnick @_DockEllis That's some of my analysis re: dWAR and its problems. There's more, but I'm typed out. I await your comments/feedback etc.

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@athletnick @_DockEllis Improper Assumption: WAR assumes that a single season's worth of defensive data represents a player's true talent level. As a result, a player's dWAR can wildly fluctuate from +15 runs to -5 runs from one year to the next without any change in their physical athleticism or skill

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@athletnick @_DockEllis Offensive stats stabilize quickly because players log hundreds of AB's a year.
Defense operates on a different timeline.
The Flaw: True defensive skill takes roughly three full seasons of data to accurately stabilize. Yet single-season dWAR numbers are cited in MVP awards, etc

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@athletnick @_DockEllis Defenders don't exist in vacuum, yet defensive metrics struggle to isolate individual skills from team contexts.
Pitchers dictate types of batted balls fielders face. Elite staffs give OF's less chances to build positive defensive value. Groundball staffs inflate chances for IF's

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@athletnick @_DockEllis A player like Keith Hernandez, arguably the greatest defensive first baseman ever, consistently finishes with a near-zero or negative career dWAR purely because the formula assumes first base defense carries minimal weight. This is egregious.

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@athletnick @_DockEllis The Flaw:
This creates massive baseline disparities. SS's get a big run credit, while 1B & LF/RF receive penalties.
Wrong Assumption: The metric assumes that an elite defender at an "easy" position contributes less to winning than an average defender at a "premium" position.

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@athletnick @_DockEllis Positional adjustments over-penalize certain fields

Because some positions are inherently harder to play than others, WAR adds or subtracts a rigid "positional adjustment" to normalize values across the diamond. A 1B isn't a SS who isn't a LF goes without saying.

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@athletnick @_DockEllis WAR treats these outputs as concrete figures, yet defensive calculations are just estimates stacked on top of estimates.
Many opine that full-season defensive values carry a variance of 1 - 3 wins. Yet, are presented as having a level of precision that doesn't exist.

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@athletnick @_DockEllis The "Estimation Stack"
Unlike offensive stats, that are built on hard, discrete events defense is a game of space, time, & coordinates

Calculating runs saved means estimating a ball's trajectory, predict a baseline catch probability, guess where the fielder should've been

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@athletnick @_DockEllis Here goes, I hope you guys are ready for what's to follow.

The foundational flaws in defensive WAR stem from attempting to convert imprecise, highly volatile data into a precise, aggregate baseline number. This introduces several improper assumptions and analytical blind spots

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

Paid for what he did? Does he mean having his career year hitting bombs in minor league parks in Covid ball 2021?
Does he mean last years end of season and post season run?
Perhaps, creating the HR blazer? Or perfecting the Gatorade toss?
@BlueJays @Sportsnet

[Master Flip | Phillip Feliz 🇩🇴 @Masterflip_]

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. opens up on his slump year: “They didn’t pay me to hit 40 every year. They paid me for what I already did.”

I want people to understand one thing. The money they gave me wasn’t for what I’m going to do. It was for what I already did. They didn’t pay me because I’m going to hit 40 every year. They paid me for what I already accomplished. People are confused about that, but I think the same way they do. Like, sometimes I even say to myself: bro, they gave you all that money and you’re out here doing nothing. I try.

You know how it is with fans, when you’re good, they’re with you 100%. But when you smell like shit, like we like to say here, nobody supports you.

The ones who support you are the ones who stay with you. Those are my fans. My family.

Via VeronicabatistaTv/IG

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@Barkley_Tap Cecil & Prince Fielder

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@Jimfrombaseball Jim, I assume you've read Larry Tye's excellent biography on the great Satchel Paige.
Have you read Mark Ribowsky's book? Different approach, also really good.
A legend. Hardest workin' arm in the game.

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@_DockEllis @athletnick I need more than 280 characters to fully explain all the flaws with dWAR. So you know, I'm a math guy. A real one who also created a slew of algorithms in my time.
For dWAR, the formula is flawed, the assumptions made are less than scientific, are inherently skewed/distorted.

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@MissLauraMarcus In your hypothetical, a weak, neutered British Gov't would twiddling their thumbs, then ask for American help.

[R M 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇮🇱 @RMtaxg]

@_DockEllis @athletnick Counting stats on offence are real, observable actions.
Defensive "stats" are convoluted puddles of supposition and hypothetical outcomes.