I love prediction markets, but I worry they've confused young people about how the stock market and American economy work overall
Prediction markets are zero-sum. In the end: winners pay out losers, no net value is created
They have their place: prediction markets forecast outcomes better than polling & allow contrarians to monetize truth-seeking
But the stock market, capitalism, and the American economy are absolutely not a zero-sum game
Our economy is not a poker table where your win has to necessarily come at someone else’s loss
When someone invents the impossible, unlocks resources previously unavailable, finds a more efficient way…
Or at the grandest scale: opens up an entire new frontier, like space:
That adds so many new chips to the table. And without taking from anyone else’s chipstack
4+ years later, I still have mixed feelings about how I responded to this tweet. I fired back, all guns-blazing
And in retrospect: I was right. Time has proven that out. I’m quite proud of having called the top of the Art NFT bubble: almost down to the day
But I’m not proud of the way I did it. Just because someone slings mud my way doesn’t justify slinging more back. And perhaps I started the mud slinging by trashing an industry at the time I had real issues with.
It hurt in the moment because it came from an investor I deeply respected. So I fired right back
Hopefully I’ve matured since then and have found healthier ways to disagree & assert contrarian opinions in the moment
My respect since has regrown for Chris. I still think he’s a remarkable investor and we just had a heated disagreement in the moment.
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Yes. In government office it’s customary to speak about elected officials using honorifics as a courtesy to the office and the position they hold in society
For Congress and Senate, it’s “The Honorable [name]”
I generally think our current officials don’t live up to their honorifics, nearly across the board
But my dad was and is every measure of “The Honorable Bob Goodlatte”
He lived up to, and still lives up to that honorific. Even if at times his son didn’t show him the respect he deserved
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The best piece of wealth / financial advice I know is this:
If you suddenly find a huge pile of money dropped on your lap… change absolutely nothing for a year
See if you even can resist changing nothing
Make no lifestyle changes whatsoever for at least one year. See if you even can.
And then proceed however you will
This is not the path I took, but it would have led me to where I’m at now in relation to money about 5 years sooner
@tcballard@kevinxu You can tell something this… and they won’t listen
I know because the only way I learned it is by going through it. Nouveau-riche is a cliche for a reason
My dad isn’t particularly wealthy, especially not by the standard of former members of Congress
Not as any sort of boast, but I am significantly more wealthy than my parents
As to why? Well for starters that’s never why he ran. He’s an incredibly honorable person.
He’s every measure of the man you’d want in Congress. And that’s coming from his kid who used to publicly battle him on politics. Regrettably.
We’re now closer than ever and he demonstrated the same sort of maturity and benevolence that I hope I can extend to others going forward, even when they might be swinging hard at me
@wyllohland Well put. There area healthier ways of expressing disagereement — especially in finance — that don't require mud-slinging
You can take your side of the bet, I can take mine. And we can just see where the chips land and respect each other either way.
You’re over-reaching on what I said fwiw
I was speaking to art NFTs in the moment. And 4 years later, it looks abundantly clear I was correct
But digital art? I’m all for it. I want to support artists — you know for a fact I do that in my personal life
But what was happening then was maybe 99.9% grift, 0.1% art
I’m the first in line if we can find a way to flip that ratio
I’ve beat Chris to every good investment he’s ever made so I welcome the short.
Chris was series B at Coinbase, I was series A.
Chris bought ETH in 2015, I bought in 2014. 🤷♂️
Dunks, then blocks me. What a clown
@wyllohland This was my response. A true statement, but maybe a low blow and just slinging mud back
Again, not proud. But I’m also the type to not delete a post even when I was in the wrong posting it
I’ve beat Chris to every good investment he’s ever made so I welcome the short.
Chris was series B at Coinbase, I was series A.
Chris bought ETH in 2015, I bought in 2014. 🤷♂️
Dunks, then blocks me. What a clown
@Matt_Levine_1 Make war with ideas, not with people. Is maybe the lesson
You can fight an idea and be very strongly-worded about it
But as soon as you’re fighting a person… well it gets personal. And regrettable
No I don’t forget. There’s a reason why I was so direct with my words
It’s very rare for anyone to have these moments in finance of clarity: where you absolutely know something is wrong and you want to call it out in the strongest possible way
I’m not going to stop doing that going forward. I’m just going to be more respectful about it
I think the biggest reason my initial tweet went viral, the one Chris responded to:
I was crypto industry insider. With every credential one could have at the time
Invested in Coinbase when it was 3 guys in an apartment, bought the Ethereum pre-sale
The call was coming from inside the house
It’s one thing for an outside critic to laugh at that something that was on-it’s-face absurd…
I think the fact he thought I was his ally kicked off his initial reaction that led to a lot of unnecessary mud slinging
In the end: I was his ally and still am. I’m proud of my crypto investments and always will be. But I also call balls & strikes as I see them
It was so bad at the time it was covered in TechCrunch: https://t.co/oQvjZllFxE
I’ve since come to learn that when you disagree with someone on Twitter: especially when it comes to something objective like finance
Just quietly place your short. Stating your point through a bet is a lot healthier than saying nasty words back and forth
I can actually appreciate the original intent of art NFTs, probably more than most
My house is full of art. I even store art for a struggling artist friend of mine
I think art NFTs actually did start out from a wholesome place. But very quickly it was co-opted by grifters. And that became 99.9% of the space
That’s about when I spoke my peace about the whole affair