Nearly half of all Premier League goals involve a random event — a deflection, a rebound, a keeper error.
60% of the gap between xG and actual goals is pure luck.
So I borrowed a technique from poker research to build a player evaluation metric that subtracts the luck.
🧵👇
Wirtz is a width player who was forced centrally because of the acl for safety measures; same measures that are now limiting his game. Isak is a ball to feet player minus the technically that Firmino had so he’s basically a lost cause. Sorriest “what if”
Easy to champion the people who made sacrifices for World Cup winners, what about all the grandparents whose kids were shit? My dad drove me to every cricket ground from Barnstaple to Wells to watch me average 3.5, surely that’s more commendable