Owen

Data Scientist for all things MLB for @RunTheSims
Creator of a full game MLB simulator used for DFS and Props

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

https://t.co/TozhblXEA7

Here's a look into the insane level of detail that goes into our daily MLB projections at @RunTheSims

- True Game Sim with pitching changes, RP selection, pinch hits, baserunning models
- Advanced batter and pitcher baseline projections
- Models to track changes in swing and adjust projections accordingly
- Recent changes in stuff and arsenal adjustments for pitchers
- Pitcher VAA vs Batter Swing Plane adjustments
- Custom batter specific weather and park adjustments
- Custom umpire adjustments
- Platoon adjustments incorporating stuff and advanced batted ball statistics
- Fielding adjustments
- Home/Away

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

Michael Jordan, former minor league baseball player...

[Jeff Bates @jeffbatesx]

Gable Steveson, former Buffalo Bills DLineman, will fight for a heavyweight title in the UFC soon!

His UFC debut was as expected…
Absolute destruction
#UFC329

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

Follow for behind the scenes insights on player performance.
https://t.co/QYFeJzm8KR

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

Tanner Bibee struck out 26.3% of batters in 2024. He's only struck out 19.5% of batters this year. We've detected that he recently changed his change up, and has promoted his Sinker as his dominant fastball. We can use this information to gain an edge as we predict his strikeout rate will continue to drop.

This early detection is the main reason why Bibee Under 4.5K's is our #1 K Prop for the day.

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

If a runner steals 2nd base before the pitch is delivered, and the batter hits a fly ball, does the runner have to retreat to 1st base or can they tag from 2nd?

[Codify @CodifyBaseball]

maybe the biggest jump in baseball history

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

https://t.co/rwHnSFTyIq

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

Tanner Bibee struck out 26.3% of batters in 2024. He's only struck out 19.5% of batters this year. We've detected that he recently changed his change up, and has promoted his Sinker as his dominant fastball. We can use this information to gain an edge as we predict his strikeout rate will continue to drop.

This early detection is the main reason why Bibee Under 4.5K's is our #1 K Prop for the day.

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

Add Gavin Williams to the list. His 11K performance wasn't a fluke. Our models really like what he did in his last start, leaning heavily into his best pitches (4S, SL, and CU). He's also increased his velo significantly. This has earned him the highest 'recent stuff' K boost out of any starter.

We able to detect that he's a different pitcher than years past and have his k rate at 28.9%, while all publicly available systems have him 25-26%, as they're weighted down by his previous seasons.

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

After 65 days and 7433 bets, our MLB simulator is now +327% against the CLOSING LINE. Most touts post their results against soft lines posted on random books. They tout a +125 bet they 'took', and when you go to bet it yourself it's -115. Finding bad lines can obviously be profitable, but you don't need a good model to do that.

Our simulator beats the sharpest line, the closing line by 5% consistently.
https://t.co/y1mF3shCRm

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

@NickDes22 Not sure honestly. Just tracking the underlying data

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

Add Gavin Williams to the list. His 11K performance wasn't a fluke. Our models really like what he did in his last start, leaning heavily into his best pitches (4S, SL, and CU). He's also increased his velo significantly. This has earned him the highest 'recent stuff' K boost out of any starter.

We able to detect that he's a different pitcher than years past and have his k rate at 28.9%, while all publicly available systems have him 25-26%, as they're weighted down by his previous seasons.

[Lance Brozdowski @LanceBroz]

Guardians pitching lab has been cooking.

Complete Joey Cantillo overhaul, Slade Cecconi has a new slider, and now Tanner Bibee has a new changeup.

Bibee's changeup slot is down ~5°, he rotated the ball, fingers are closer together, and the pitch added 1.5 mph and 7" drop. 📈

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

@paintingcorner Not quite. That's the odds he'd get 12 hits given 12 PA, but there are many 12 PA samples. He's had 54 PA this year, so that's 43, 12 PA samples. Odds of Tolbert getting 12 consecutive hits at some point so far this season is more like 1 in 4.7M, still crazy though

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

Our models also think Volpe is one of the better fielding short stops. He's likely a bit of anti-Jeter. Has really good range making difficult plays look routine, but will also boot or throwing the ball away. These errors are the obvious things that stand out to fans, but there are many plays that he makes look routine that other SS's have to fully extend for and are given grace when they don't make the play.

[Mike Petriello @mike_petriello]

I don't know if Yankee fans actually want to hear this right now, because everything else has been such a bad run lately, but: Statcast thinks Anthony Volpe's defense at short has been pretty good

--> https://t.co/ocwlzbcyC9

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

@LanceBroz Good stuff. Our models really like the new Cantillo. Expecting him to increase both his K% and BB%, but a net positive for sure. Doesn't really see these adjustments moving the needle for Bibee or Cecconi though.

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

@BallparkPal Do you account for exact spray angle or just general direction (left, right center). Obviously fences are shorter down the lines, but spray relative to batter handedness matter a lot for how much a ball carries due to spin

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

Market hasn't caught on, Cantillo over 5.5K

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

Joey Cantillo is a completely different pitcher than the beginning of the season.

He's largely abandoned his slider, and in the past few games introduced a cutter and significantly increased his curveball usage.

We detect this, and he's seen a dramatic increase in his predict K%. The downside is, he'll also likely walk more batters.

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

Joey Cantillo is a completely different pitcher than the beginning of the season.

He's largely abandoned his slider, and in the past few games introduced a cutter and significantly increased his curveball usage.

We detect this, and he's seen a dramatic increase in his predict K%. The downside is, he'll also likely walk more batters.

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

Roki's Velo up 1.5mph 👀

21% K rate before velo bump, 30% after

[Owen @RTS_Owen]

Great call by Lance. We have models that look for changes in 'stuff' and/or pitch distribution changes, and Gilbert currently has the largest K boost out of any starter.

By looking at these metrics under the hood, we can separate the signal form the noise and adjust extremely quickly.

[Lance Brozdowski @LanceBroz]

Weird stuff going on with Logan Gilbert's four-seam fastball...

Season avg: 95.5 mph, 16.9" iVB, 2,112 rpm
Last two starts: 96.3 mph, 18.3" iVB, 2,333 rpm

63%(!!) usage in his last two outings too, up from 33%. Spin/velocity + usage trendline below. Weird one! 🤔

[Adam Scherer @ShipMyMoneyDFS]

Projections, Props, Optimizer, Sims all available @RunTheSims

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