Raymond Parsons

Professor of Economics, North West University Business School, Potchefstroom, South Africa

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

NWU Business School Policy Uncertainty Index (PUI) 2Q 2026 rose to 81.9 from 77.8 1Q 2026 (baseline 50)/mainly driven by global energy crisis/ so far data shows contained growth setback and temporary inflation surge/much depends on whether US-Iran MoU holds & oil prices stay low

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

The US-Iran MoU/big welcome relief to world economy after negative global economic impact of Middle East conflict/prospect of lower fuel & other costs over time/delay of months to remove bottlenecks eg Hormuz Strait/geopolitical promissory note, with no payment certain when due?

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

Good news Fitch rating agency after many years upgrades SA’s investment rating by a notch, though still junk status/recognition of gains so far on fiscal & reform fronts/but also emphasises relative weak GDP growth of about 1% plus - far short of 4% in comparable rated economies

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

By 4-2 majority MPC raised interest rates 25 bps/seen as preventative step against inflation from global energy crisis shock/upside risks to inflation & downside risks to growth/no clear evidence of second round effects yet/for good reasons minority want pause to July meeting

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

April headline CPI rose to expected 4% on impact of oil price shock & higher Eskom tariffs & fuel levies/SARB & other experts previously warned of inflation escalation/MPC on May 28 needs to decide whether or not to ‘look through’ CPI rise & first wait for second round effects

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

Worsening unemployment 1Q 2026 early warning signal of worsening economic impact of global energy crisis/recent ‘green shoots’ of economic recovery jeopardised/economic buffers partial & limited/all domestic policies must be geared to keep GDP growth in positive territory in 2026

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

Importance of Constitutional Court’s decision on Phala Phala issue 1. Parliament must follow constitutional processes 2. Insistence on accountability by executive authority 3. All are subject to rule of law. With clarity on process, now in hands of Parliament to further manage

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

Partial relief on petrol & diesel fuel levy extension to June inevitable & necessary/R17.2 billion fiscal loss manageable for now/but global energy crisis injects urgency into work of Ministerial task team on fuel costs/especially reform of fuel price regulatory structure needed

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

@michaelxpettis Outstanding analysis! Reminds one of a quotation from historian RH Tawney - ‘The children of the mind are like the children of the body. Once born, they grow by a law of their own, and if their parents could foresee their development, it would sometimes break their heart’.

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

@BusinessTechSA MD of IMF, & other central bankers from the BoE & ECB recently said: 1. Central bankers should generally be vigilant, but not rush to raise interest rates in the face of ‘radical uncertainty’ 2. Central banks with high credibility (as is the SARB) can now afford to ‘wait-and-see’

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

March CPI inflation only edging to 3.1% from 3.0% in Feb no reason for complacency/combined impact of global & internal cost factors as from April 1 will now test 4% limit of SARB’s 2%-4% inflation target range/inflation will get worse before it gets better again later in 2026

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

@BevansAdvocate Skidelsky was a powerful intellectual and scholar over many years in theory & history of ‘political economy’- also his magisterial three volume biography of John Maynard Keynes. In truth and error Keynes was a great economist, & Skidelsky put him into authoritative perspective

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

Link below to op-ed piece around global energy crisis in ‘Business Times’ yesterday on ‘SA’s economic resilience calls for timely and co-ordinated action’.

https://t.co/UaPflqK5RL

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

Business should see appointment of Roelf Meyer SA Ambassador to US as opportunity to 1. strengthen economic relations with the US & 2. repair strained diplomatic interaction with White House/key stakeholders should proffer best advice to new appointee - & then judge by results?

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

Failure of Pakistan US-Iran negotiations unsurprising given wide agenda gap & mistrust/global markets will now respond to 1. fragility of cease fire & risks of escalation 2. whether US now blockades Strait of Hormuz 3. revised IMF outlook on global growth and inflation this week

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

‘Mitigating the fallout from the oil price spike’ is an article which appeared in ‘Business Day’ today
https://t.co/vtZxVDfMzi

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

Last minute partial fuel levy relief inevitable 1. magnitude of combined cost shock on economy 2. other countries have also found mitigating steps 3. need to protect vulnerable groups 4. but help only temporary given big fiscal constraints 5. fuel pricing reforms need expediting

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

https://t.co/W5ZLsadNkR

Interview on Business Day-TV today unpacking NWU Business School’s 1Q 2026 Policy Uncertainty Index in context of global energy crisis and economic & business implications for SA

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

In response to global energy crisis, MPC as expected decided to leave interest rates unchanged/MPC now sees risks to inflation on upside & risks to growth on downside/triple shock April 1 from fuel prices, fuel levy & Eskom tariffs/interest rates will remain higher for longer

[Raymond Parsons @RWKParsons]

April 1 ‘triple whammy’ for economy 1. Initial impact of higher domestic fuel prices following impact of global oil crisis & weaker rand 2. Implementation of higher fuel/ RAF levies & carbon tax announced in Budget 3. Rise in Eskom tariffs/what can government do to mitigate this?