@mellowrk_lion Seriously..sucks! But cant be a green day every day I guess.. Looking forward to the bounce next week.
HAGW! Picked up some ENPH down here in the lows.
HERE'S WHY $RKLB, $ASTS AND $SPCX ALL DROPPED OVERNIGHT.
Last night at 21:14 ET, Blue Origin's New Glenn booster ignited seven BE-4 engines for a static fire test at LC-36.
Four seconds later, the anomaly began.
Two seconds after that, the booster was gone.
The pad damage is described as "significant" — lightning tower, flame trench, ground support equipment all heavily impacted. Realistic return-to-flight estimate: Q1 2027.
The detail nobody is leading with:
this is the second BE-4 anomaly in 2026.
NG-3's upper stage underperformed in April. The booster destroyed itself last night. Same engine platform, two separate failures, in less than 60 days.
The market read it correctly.
$ASTS dropped 10.2% on 4.8x volume because BlueBird's constellation now has no confirmed heavy-lift backup.
$SPCX slipped on ETF-level sector contagion, dragging the entire small-cap space basket lower. $RKLB fell 3.1% for the same indiscriminate reason — which is precisely where the mispricing lives.
Neutron's first flight just became the most consequential medium-lift event of the year. Every customer whose payload was sitting on a New Glenn manifest is making phone calls today. Rocket Lab is the one picking up.
The scoreboard tells you everything:
SpaceX has completed 87 successful launches in 2026. Blue Origin has completed zero.
That's not a gap. That's a structural reality the market is still pricing as temporary.
It isn't.
💬 Where are you positioning into Neutron's first flight?
A $2.0 billion company building the first commercial photonic memory product on the market in partnership with $MRVL and nobody is talking about it.
$PENG Penguin Solutions. Trading at $40. 15x forward earnings. Zero photonics revenue priced in.
Penguin was an early investor in Celestial AI. $MRVL acquired Celestial in February 2026 for billions. $PENG got a $27.5 million cash payout from that acquisition and kept the most important thing. The partnership.
They are actively developing the Photonic Memory Appliance with $MRVL right now and the CEO confirmed it explicitly on the last earnings call.
The PMA is the first commercial photonic memory disaggregation product being built for large scale AI environments.
Photonic connectivity dramatically increases the capacity to share memory across workloads at speeds conventional interconnects cannot match.
As inference scales this is a critical bottleneck solution. $PENG builds the box.
$MRVL guided $500 million run rate by FY28 and $1 billion by FY29 on the Photonic Fabric platform. $PENG is in the critical path of that entire buildout. The market is pricing none of it.
Then the $AMD partnership just dropped. $PENG and $AMD signed a collaboration with Shell to enhance AI data center efficiency.
Shell’s Houston facility already runs 864 Penguin built servers loaded with dual 96 core EPYC processors. $AMD takes the chip revenue.
$PENG takes the systems revenue. Every enterprise AI deployment on EPYC is a $PENG revenue event
Full year revenue growth guidance just raised from 6% to 12% on the back of memory segment strength. Enterprise and sovereign AI pipeline growing 50%.
15x forward earnings. Photonics optionality at zero. $AMD CPU supercycle tailwind. $MRVL partnership confirmed.
The re-rate will happen soon.
I just bought $2M of a brand new stock after it crashed 7% today.
$PENG is now a 20% position in my Asymmetrical Bets fund (+89% YTD) on @joinautopilot followed by $10M.
Credit goes to legend @pennycheck for being the first to call this stock.
With Penguin Solutions I now own the winner agnostic integrator behind the memory, CPU, and photonics supercycle at under 17x forward earnings.
1) The memory business alone is worth the market cap.
Penguin's Integrated Memory biz = they take raw DRAM chips from manufacturers like SK Hynix and package them into custom memory modules built to spec for AI servers, telco gear, and enterprise systems.
It's now 50% of revenue, did $172M last quarter, growing 63% YoY, ~$800M annualized. Apply a 3x price to sales on just this unit and you're already above what $PENG is worth today.
2) Play the CPU supercycle.
CPU:GPU ratios going from 1:8 to 1:1 as agentic AI takes over. $PENG is the lead integration partner for AMD EPYC and Intel Xeon. Every new socket = more memory cooling and integration revenue baked in.
3) The AI Factory platform is real.
OriginAI is their turnkey deployment from 256 to 16,000+ GPU clusters for sovereign and enterprise customers. 85,000 GPUs already deployed.
UBS says non hyperscaler buyers (sovereigns, neoclouds, enterprises) capture 48% of AI infra spend in 2026. Hyperscalers build in house. But these other players ALL need Penguin.
4) Photonics is the unpriced asymmetric bet.
$PENG called photonics early and was an early investor in Celestial AI. $MRVL acquired it $3.25B in December. Now Penguin is building the Photonic Memory Appliance, making it the only public play on this kind of wild photonics tech. The PMA is basically a box that uses light to link memory across a bunch of servers so the entire AI cluster can share one giant pool of memory like it's one big computer.
Marvell guides Celestial to $1B revenue in 2029. If Penguin captures even low double digits of that stream, that could be 9 figs of unpriced networking revenue on $PENG's highest margin, most defensible IP.
5) People/partners are cracked.
Chairman of $PENG is ALSO Chairman of $LITE.
AMD CTO Mark Papermaster sits on the board
SK Telecom dropped $200M as a strategic investor
New CPO Ian Colle ran AI infra at AWS
6) Risks are real but manageable
Penguin's AI cluster business is lumpy and one big customer slipping a quarter can tank earnings (already happened in Q2, down 42% YoY). The memory shortage is a headwind as high DRAM prices are slowing customer orders and hitting Penguin's gross margins. The photonics upside is a 2027+ story, so if it slips, the stock can sit dead money for a while.
Because the multiple is still so cheap, I overall see limited downside compared to the upside if their photonics option can be quantified with $MRVL where I could see Penguin trading closer to a 30x+ forward PE.
Surf's up. Full thesis linked on Substack below.
Read this to your kids today-
Winnie the Pooh by A.A Milne
Written by A A Milne
“If you live to be a hundred, I want to live to be a hundred minus one day so I never have to live without you.”
Piglet sidled up to Pooh from behind. “Pooh?” he whispered. “Yes, Piglet?”
“Nothing,” said Piglet, taking Pooh’s hand. “I just wanted to be sure of you.”
“We’ll be Friends Forever, won’t we, Pooh?” asked Piglet.
“Even longer,” Pooh answered. “If ever there is tomorrow when we’re not together… there is something you must always remember. You are braver than you believe, stronger than you seem, and smarter than you think. But the most important thing is, even if we’re apart… I’ll always be with you.”
@Han_Akamatsu@JohnLoc18 My guess is he started watxhing other furus and got swayed to stay short..cant marry a position have to trade with flows. I got burned too, but i now wait for the reversal to take place.. and it aint hapen ing just yet in my opinion.