Ra1

I’m no trader nor a financial advisor. Just a man with a peculiar hobby of reading charts, not quite like anyone you’ve known before.

99% of crypto is a scam.

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

That's when I called the bottom ... How accurate was that ?

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

Mid term election years

In 2022 July was green August and September Red
In 2018 July was green August and September Red
Even in 2014 when July was Red, August and September were still Red.

#Bitcoin #MidTermYears

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

Could the current counter trend rally last into August 2026, it can. But later into Quarter 03 we get back into the macro window of weakness of mid term years

#Bitcoin

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

Could the current counter trend rally last into August 2026, it can. But later into Quarter 03 we get back into the macro window of weakness of mid term years

#Bitcoin

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

If history is any indicator then the next window of weakness in Bitcoin price is going to start in next two to three weeks.

#Bitcoin #MidTermYears #CycleLow

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

Bitcoin is stuck between the 21WeeksEMA and 200WeeksSMA, Hard Rock and Deep Sea as Mr. Cowen is elaborating now a days.
It would be very soon forced to take a side in Q04, after it gets more boring.
S&P 500 drops and takes Bitcoin with it for the cycle low ...

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

You were updated exactly before the pump like all counter trend rallies of this bear market. That's how accurate we can get !

#Bitcoin #BearMarkets

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

The falling wedge around the June low of a mid term year bear market usually calls for the last counter trend rally, usually followed by a seasonal drop in August/September time, causing the final capitulation in Bitcoin for the cycle low.

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

There will be a seasonal drop in August / September 2026 in S&P 500. Get ready guys !

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

This is how your portfolio should start looking by now. If there is any other thing included in it besides Cash and Bitcoin, you are going to hurt yourself badly.
Never sell your winner to buy a looser.
Time ot DCA into Bitcoin ...

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

The falling wedge around the June low of a mid term year bear market usually calls for the last counter trend rally, usually followed by a seasonal drop in August/September time, causing the final capitulation in Bitcoin for the cycle low.

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

Bitcoin topped in October 2025 and it was then and there that I declared that No ALT Season, unless ETH durably holds above previous ATH.

That's the second step, after Bitcoin tops at euphoria rather than apathy, towards the final rotation into ALTs.

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

No ALT Season unless ETH is durably holding above $5,000.

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

You will not get it. Just like you didn't get what I was the only person calling for the failure of ALT Season after Bitcoin topped.

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

Means it will make a cycle low in Q04 and then will break it next year and go flash dumping lower.
So that's why we never buy all or sell all (Period).

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

Means it will make a cycle low in Q04 and then will break it next year and go flash dumping lower.
So that's why we never buy all or sell all (Period).

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

When we are buying Bitcoin at or around the cycle bottom, we need to realise one thing: the four years cycle will probably break in next or next two to three cycles. The matter is that it will most probably break to the down side instead of the upside.

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

When we are buying Bitcoin at or around the cycle bottom, we need to realise one thing: the four years cycle will probably break in next or next two to three cycles. The matter is that it will most probably break to the down side instead of the upside.

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

Now what ?

There can be a pull back in 2nd week of July 2026 and then a window of strength in July 2026 (probably the last counter trend rally before the low) between the larger window of yearly weakness in 2026.

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

The Road to the Market Cycle Bottom - Episode 01 "Price Based Capitulation"

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

S&P 500 will top and have a dip in Q04 which will correspond to the market cycle bottom for BTC.
It doesn't mean you wait for it to buy, you can start slowly now ...

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

I may pivot bullish before October, 2026 depends on how low it gets, and if charts allow me to ...
If it dips to $40,000 immediately, i would never wait foolishly for Q04. I would probably pivot earlier !

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

There can one final counter trend rally before the market cycle bottom is in ...

Q04 is what you look for !

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

The four year cycle of Bitcoin is not broken yet. It is infact following exactly the average of previous bear markets.
Why fix something which isn't broken yet ?

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

Look what I updated you in October 2025 exactly when Bitcoin topped.

That's how brutal, I am. I talked about today when Bitcoin was at the ATH.
We are at the 200WeeksSMA buddy

#Bitcoin #20StepsAhead

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

No one will tell you the secret. People want you to feel it like magic and some really tough thing to do ...
For short-term profits, it's just Buying Bitcoin when it dumps below 200WeeksSMA and Exiting it when it hits the ATH in Q4 of post election years.

[Ra1 @Ra1Azhar]

@HumbleWarrior Cowen doesn't talk. I leave. Good bye