Raadia Capital

Trader | Long/Short Equities, Index Options, and Index Futures | Complex Directional Options Strategies | Tweets Are Not Investment Advice

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

@SteveSosnick

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

@VegaOptions One more HB to add to the list. A lower timeframe, "weak hands" close, for sure.

https://t.co/vXTOxmFzOf

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

/ES value migrated emphatically lower, but we closed with a rally up to the VPOC, which also is HB of the $SPX daily, week, AND monthly bars, HB of the prior swing high, and HB of the current 650-pt balance area. 🤯

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

So which way from here? I continue to expect continuation lower. The monthly, weekly, and daily are down. We have unfinished business within the April 4-7 range. And today's squeeze into the close took us right into the teeth of the sharply descending 8sma hourly bands.

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

/ES overnight 100% short. Gapped modestly lower, retraced to HVN ~5300, auctioned to 5250. Value lower but POC remains within 4/16 range. This morning, watching open in relation to 5250. If open above, expecting retest of 5300. If open below, expecting continuation to 5200.

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

/ES value migrated emphatically lower, but we closed with a rally up to the VPOC, which also is HB of the $SPX daily, week, AND monthly bars, HB of the prior swing high, and HB of the current 650-pt balance area. 🤯

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

@VegaOptions The bulls just overshot your upper balance level by 1.75pts. You're losing your touch😆

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

@VegaOptions Market's trying to get peppy, so we'll see where we close, but for now, leaning bearish.

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

Balance Rules....

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

$SPX A market waiting for new information. Acceptance outside the purple zone will establish direction intraday. Acceptance outside the green zone will establish the next larger move.

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

So this move is clearly nuts. That doesn't mean it can't hold. But we ran (380 points 🤯) straight into MAJOR resistance: Weekly HB, the HB zone from the 3/28 pivot high, declining Daily 8SMA bands, AND 4/3 gap fill. Stay alert.

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

/ES trading inside yesterday's upper distribution. Off the open, explored 20 points into the single prints from yesterday's news-generated melt-up and then reversed. I'm long above the low of that opening drive. #MGI @VegaOptions

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

@wherenow108 @VegaOptions I can check for you when I get back to my desk tonight. If you use ToS, you can check for yourself, too. Simulate the position and then use ToS' historical replay tool to check the performance of the position at any day/time.

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

After $SPX tried and failed to reach yesterday's HB, I initiated a Mon/Fri put diagonal. 30 minutes later, as we pushed into structural support around 5620-5625, I rolled the long leg down to create a mildly bearish calendar spread with a locked-in profit.

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

@wherenow108 I made two teachable mistakes--both of which @VegaOptions has recently warned about😑: (1) got mesmerized by the expiration-date risk graph and held too long waiting for a favorable bounce; (2) I let the position go deep in the money, so the B/A spread got heard to manage.

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

@wherenow108 Yes, I've closed this one. I held it for too long, though. The best time to close it would have been 4/3. After that, the best exit was the morning of 4/8. I didn't close until we had retraced pretty deeply on 4/8, so I gave a lot of open profit back.

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

@VegaOptions Slightly different chart/levels. Similar conclusion.
https://t.co/1OuS83wnrz

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

$SPX A market waiting for new information. Acceptance outside the purple zone will establish direction intraday. Acceptance outside the green zone will establish the next larger move.

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

If you find fulfillment in "gazing into the Matrix," more power to you. I enjoy that stuff when I have time for it. But if anyone tells you that you "have to" follow gamma or order flows to trade profitably, feel free to smile and walk away. @VegaOptions

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

My feed is full of posts about order flow, gamma strikes and whatnot. I'm even seeing people claiming that "levels" don't work anymore and that one literally cannot trade without staring at a display that looks like a EKG readout for a entire roomful of lab rats. 🤪

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

That's all fine. I'll just leave this chart here. In the first four hours of today's session, we have traded exactly to HB of the prior swing low, liquidated 230 POINTS...right to the HB of the prior swing high...before bouncing about 80 points (and counting).

[Raadia Capital @RaadiaCapital]

The weekly chart I'm watching right now. @VegaOptions