When hero-calling on rivers and facing a likely bluff-catch situation, I NEVER consider all that GTO stuff at first.
I ALWAYS focus on my edge and future game dynamics at the table first.
First, I quickly ask myself and try to assess my situation at the table:
"Where is my edge?"
"How many weak opponents are there?"
"In which spots can I exploit my opponents?"
"Will better opportunities arise?"
Within seconds, I assess whether it's worth bluff-catching, especially if it means risking my tournament life on a marginal decision.
This trains my mind to stay sharp and aware of my situation at each table.
In short, the tougher the table, the more inclined I am to make a "marginal" hero call.
On softer tables, I'm content to sacrifice a bit of EV to capitalize on better opportunities in future orbits. Only when I realise that my table is tough and the edges are slim do I contemplate GTO herocalls for a significant portion of my stack.
Yet, 95% of the time, I don’t even entertain these consideration about blockers, mdf and what not.
This mindset simplifies the decision to fold hands where I'm likely behind, knowing I would make a theoretical correct call but my average opponent won't find the right amount of bluffs.
It also helps avoid getting too attached to any particular hand. And not paying out your opponents when subconsciously you know you are behind most of the time.
That doesn’t mean you should play passively on soft tables. Quite the opposite – this is the time to be aggressive and exploit opponent tightness and weaknesses. If you're fortunate enough to be at a table with several bad aggressive players, patience is key. Just wait for strong hands. If you bluff on these tables in big spots, getting into marginal spots over and over again, sorry but then you are the Idiot. You have not understand how Tournament Poker works.
"I can't win on low stakes because people don't fold to my bluffs". Yeah buddy, sure.
Many players don't understand the concept of Future Game and Ingame Table Selection. They remain trapped in their GTO tendencies, even in tournaments with lower buy-ins, because they're unsure where and how to exploit weaknesses. They might find peace in high solver scores, but that won't pay your bills.
Considering ROI in a tournament setting, it's crucial to think about your future game. While it's hard to quantify or assign exact values, you can still avoid those break-even 50bb hero calls when you have a decent edge.
All it needs is to use your brain. To use logic. You don't need to solve anything here. The better you are, the higher your ROI, the more you should avoid marginal confrontations (which will deny future higher EV opportunities).
Some argue, "But Ben, doubling up gives an additional edge."
That's only true around the bubble or in comparable ICM situations (like F2T, FT). It's valid if, and only if, you truly understand how to capitalize on playing a big stack. It's more challenging than most realize.
Moreover, during early and mid-game phases, a big stack doesn't necessarily guarantee extra EV. Do you genuinely believe an average opponent will consider the ICM implications and therefore fold more against a bigger stack in the middle of a tournament?
The common thinking is quite the opposite: "He's got a big stack, so he's likely to bluff or play more aggressively."
Thanks for taking the time and reading this. I appreciate it champ. If you like it, feel free to like and retweet.
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