RacetotheWH

RacetotheWH predicts elections and tracks the latest polling. In 2022, it led all forecasters in calling the highest # of Senate and Gov. Races correctly.

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

Here's how I made the forecast - which I do routinely for Senate and Gov primaries around the country to power RacetotheWH.
1. I project each candidates vote share, using polling, momentum, fundraising, endorsement, experience, and google searches in CA

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

Here's the chance each candidate has of making the general election by finishing in the top two. Becerra, Steyer and Hilton have all separated themselves cleanly from the rest of the field.

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

Xavier Becerra surged ahead at lightning speed since the day Eric Swalwell was forced out, rising from the bottom tier of candidates to the very top in just 30 days.

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

The gap between the top three candidates is so miniscule. While I think the most likely outcome is Steyer v. Becerra, it would take just the slightest over-performance to turn this into a Becerra v. Hilton or a Steyer v. Hilton general election.

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

Final Projections for California Governor🧵
Xavier Becerra has zoomed ahead and is slightly favored to finish on top - while Steyer may narrowly eclipse Hilton, which would lead to a Republican lockout.

[RacetotheWH @RacetotheWH]

For those checking our Governor forecast - you'll see the actual race shifted even further, because up until today we thought there was a 10% chance Scott didn't run for re-election. If he didn't run, Democrats would have been heavily favored to win.

[RacetotheWH @RacetotheWH]

There are some races where a regular forecast isn't going to do the job. in Vermont - Governor Phill Scott wins by overwhelming margins in a D+30 state every time. So we're changing the forecast - and giving way more weight to Scott's performance last election.

[RacetotheWH @RacetotheWH]

In past cycles, we've wildly underrated him until we had polling for the race. This time, we're getting it right earlier on. So his projection improves from R+17% in the old system to R+36%.

And his odds of winning rise from 89% to 98%.

[RacetotheWH @RacetotheWH]

2028 Democratic Primary Polling Update:
For months, Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom have dominated the race. Now, both have fallen below 20%, while Pete Buttigieg has surged to almost 15%, followed closely behind by AOC at 12%.

[RacetotheWH @RacetotheWH]

Democrats new lead in the generic ballot is now D+7.1% - their highest since we started tracking the polling back in January of 2025.

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

It's election day and we've got primaries in Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, and Texas. Here's my predictions for each race:
1. Georgia Governor - Dem:
Chance to Win Today: Keisha Lance Bottoms 62%,
Make Runoff or Win: Bottoms 100%, Thurmond 18.3%, Esteves 2.4%, Duncan 2.4%
(1/10)

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

Here's my final projection for the Georgia Republican Senate Primary.

Projection: Collins 42.5%, Dooley 29.0%, Carter 24.4%, McCollum 2.6%, Coyne 1.6%
Chance to Make Runoff: Collins 79%, Dooley 62.4%, Cart 25.8%
Chance to Win Outright: Collins 22%

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

CA Governor Primary Update: After 40,000 simulations of the election, Becerra broke past Steyer as the narrow favorite. Here's the average result:
1. Xavier Becerra 18.8%
2. Tom Steyer 18.3%
3. Steve Hilton 18.2%
4. Chad Bianco 12.2%
5. Katie Porter 10.6%
6. Matt Mahan 7.5%

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

I simulated the California Governor Primary 40,000 times, and Tom Steyer emerged as a slight favorite in a fast-changing race. Here's the average result:
1. Tom Steyer 20.5%
2. Steve Hilton 19.2%
3. Xavier Becerra 16.5%
4. Chad Bianco 13.7%
5. Katie Porter 10.6%
6. Matt Mahan 8%

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

The Michigan Senate Primary could not be closer in my election forecast. I simulated the race 40,000 times, and here's the average result:

1. Abdul El-Sayed 34.8%
2. Mallory McMorrow 32.8%
3. Haley Stevens 32.5%

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

I added the new Virginia maps to the House Forecast on RacetotheWH, and Democrats’ chances of winning the majority surged from 73.4% to 78.2%.

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

Overnight, Xavier Becerra has emerged as a instant top contender for the governorship, becoming the clear beneficiary of Eric Swalwell dropping out of the race. Ten days ago, he polled at 3.8%. Now he's at 13.0%.

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

Once again, Ed Markey looked so vulnerable to a primary challenge. And once again, Markey has risen from the ashes, and is leading by just over 15% in the polls.

[Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH]

Donald Trump’s approval rating is falling again, after a brief respite following the start of the Iran war. Today, it dropped to a second-term low of 39.4%.