Adem Tumerkan

Editor of Speculators Anonymous | book addict; Long chaos, cycles, contrarianism; Short equilibrium, gov intervention, fragility

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

*Emailing out now

Sry if any grammar issues but wanted to get this oil play out ASAP

This play trades at an extremely steep discount to peers and has a great margin of safety (moat + low cost)👇🏻

https://t.co/0vwpCJklAI

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

*Note to subs: working on two plays on next dips - an oil producer that’s looking to capture some of OPEC’s losing influence

And a bet against slowing global trade

Stay tuned

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

@nirvanode @DTrades98 Exactly why it’s trading at such a discount. Management is incompetent (spun off key assets and didn’t even award shareholders any)

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

French bond yields now match Greeces

Actually, French bond yields are higher than 3-of-4 PIGS nations..

Those countries were forced to reform and deleverage, whereas France didn’t

France's gov. Spending as a % of its economy is to be a whopping ~60% in 2024

Yikes France

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

@BobEUnlimited While I agree, there’s context: A big diff. is that all previous debt cycles were due to wars which required massive debt fueled spending - there is no war this time (external factors), it’s simply debt Providing Diminishing returns towards growth and financial bubbles

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

The US yield curve via 10yr vs 2yr has finally uninverted (steepened) after 2+ years

Remember, it’s the uninversion that historically signals a recession since it’s the short end that’s being cut amid Fed easing (not steepening from growth/inflation picking up)

Let’s see..

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

Via the BLS - early revision showed 818,000 fewer jobs in year through March, biggest beg. Revision since 09

That’s around 70k jobs that were overestimated per month.

Also note that 2023 revisions saw there were more job losses than new jobs

Not surprising. Labor is a lag

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

@StealthQE4 It was inevitable

That’s why when I see people say “oh the Fed beat inflation”, they don’t look at the reason for inflation falling is credit over extended and flat wages and diminishing spending (thus lowering demand)

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

@JamesLucasIT

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

@JamesLucasIT Nice list but Forgetting Turkey’s beautiful beaches

Oludeniz, Bodrum, Alanya, and others in Black Sea

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

Curious what @michaelxpettis makes of this chart and economist piece (if seen it)

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

*China’s loss making industrial firms have exploded as there’s anemic demand in China + over-production

Beijing is subsidizing the losses so that they can keep producing + exporting, preventing the unemployment + slowdown in growth that would follow

Forcing RoW to absorb it

😬

[Complete Intelligence @complete_intel]

🔥 New Week Ahead episode! 🔥

💸 100 bps of Fed rate cuts this year? @econstratPB
⚛️ China’s nuclear power ambitions @@chigrl
💳 US debt crisis & flagging productivity @radicaladem

Watch it here: https://t.co/634m0KN6N0

[Complete Intelligence @complete_intel]

🚨 New Week Ahead episode! 🚨

💸 Fed Cuts: @econstratPB on #Fed cut chatter.
⚛️ China’s #Nuclear Power: @chigrl on global nuclear growth.
💳 America’s #Debt Crisis: @radicaladem on rising delinquencies & productivity.

Watch now! https://t.co/634m0KN6N0
#Economy #Markets #China

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

If labor productivity growth (output per hour) was actually rising faster, then nominal wage growth could continue

But labor productivity growth has been sinking for decades, hence more debt’s been needed to subsidize spending (make up the difference) 👀

Aka more Debt debt debt

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

*via NY fed - over the last year, approximately 9.1% of credit card balances and 8.0% of auto loan balances transitioned into delinquency (both the main stressors vs student debt and mortgages)

Meanwhile debt keeps rising

This doesn’t include buy not pay later which has surged

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

The CPI (inflation rate) is roughly 3%, meaning it’s rising slower than before - but the CPI’s up ~22% since 2020 yet nominal wages only 17%

To put that in perspective, b/w 2010-2020, inflation cumulatively grew only 19% yet nominal wages grew 28% (over a whole decade)

Yikes

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

*China’s macro leverage ratio is now 295% (macro leverage ratio is the total debt of an economy relative to its GDP) w/ most held by local govs (this doesn’t include the other roughly $10T in shadow debt)

Debt is deflationary because longterm $ must be used to pay it off

Hmm

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

The US ISM Manufacturing Index was a huge dud today

But the labor complement really showed fragility

The ISM Manufacturing Employment index plunged to 43.40 points in Jul/2024 (lowest since Jun/2020) from 49.30 points in the previous month, and well below forecasts of 49

[Adem Tumerkan @RadicalAdem]

Chinese brands captured 11% of the European electric-car market in June, notching record registrations as manufacturers raced to beat stiff European Union tariffs that took effect early this month

China over subsidizing EV makers to flood exports is a form of mercantilism