Is the $LULU growth story officially broken? π
β$lulu just dropped its Q1 FY26 earnings, and the "bottom" we predicted last quarter has evaporated. Instead, we got slashed guidance, and a massive margin drop.
βThe breakdown you need to see π§΅π
1/5
π‘ The Ultimate Takeaway
Lululemon is abandoning unproven seasonal risks and shifting to a defensive "Chase Strategy"βpumping 20% more volume into foundational core franchises like Swiftly.
FY26 is no longer a springboard year; itβs a dogfight to protect the core. 5/5
If you buy $MU at a $1T valuation today and hold it for life, you'll likely never see it generate $1T in cumulative free cash flow. But why let fundamental business economics get in the way of selling to the next know-nothing speculator?
@StockMarketNerd I cannot believe that they are nearly being valued as $dpz. Promoters are doing an extraordinary job here and the public has no idea that they don't have any moat which likely going to be disrupted at one point with this bizarre valuations.
@MattJMcClintock Chip does not comprehend the size of Lululemon. Lululemon is no longer a niche player, it's a joggernaut. $AS entire revenue is less than $7B with its technical brands less than $3B. Don't you think that the only way for Lululemon is to not go back to its root demographics?
@StockMarketNerd The downtrend at the end of the cycle would be epic. It would be very unlikely that any investor would make money from any of the two at these valuations.
@i_bayes The margin is expected to actually fall for the year between 200bp-300bp, mostly in first half in Q1. Q1 is expected to be the bottom of Operating margin and Q4 2025 was the highest drag on full price selling with easing in Q1 2026. The stock is priced for failure.
The herd ignores risk-adjusted returns.
$LULU is staring you in the face exactly like $NFLX in July β22 and $META in Oct β22.
You missed Netflix. You missed Meta. Youβre going to miss Lululemon, and youβll miss the next one, too.
Keep waiting for the crowd to hold your hand. ππ
@i_bayes Bear case is already priced in. No matter how you look into it, each International business and North America business alone are worth more than $14B. That's easily a double in the bear case.