Lots of "markets" and "economics" people here make sweeping statements extrapolating today until forever (both forward and backward). Don't buy these fairy tales. There is an immense amount of malpractice here. Do your own research. Find your own data. Develop your own thesis. Draw your own conclusions.
This is incorrect. Trump admin as accomplishing everything they wanted: inflating the world and driving capital back to the U.S. to prop up the market bubble. That is what Hormuz is about. Not silly notions by finance bros who know zero about geopolitics
I am feeling vindicated but also deeply frustrated for a couple of reasons let me explain.
First, we have been having these conversations for literally almost a decade. We first started having serious tariff conversations in 2017 and we are six month from 2027. It shouldn't take people, I don't care what their excuse is a decade to get to a basic understanding of reality.
Second, Trump has really just melted people's ability to carry a vaguely rational or reasoned thought. In 2017, when Trump first started going down this road the Dems and Acela Corridor were trying to pitch the narrative HRC would have been the staunch defender of free trade and then they pivoted this counter factual later to well she would have been free trade but tough on China. Then when given the chance under Biden, they basically just kept Trump status quo no material move on trade in any direction. The Europeans are the latest of all movers to this party in the year 2026 they are just now starting to even consider trade measures against China. As I have noted before, you want to criticize Trump, you want to criticize policies, have fun. You aren't hurting my feelings and sometimes I will even agree with you on specific policies where I feel it is the correct policy judgement. Before he was elected I was pro-HRC because I didn't think Trump was actually serious about China. I think there are some valid criticisms (which I have regularly noted) but he has clearly gone much harder on China than any Democratic administration this century. You want to criticize him, please criticize him where you feel appropriate but at least try not reflexively criticize beset by raging TDS.
Third, the newcomers to the trade restriction party don't understand the implications of what they are saying as many people who have accepted trade restrictions. The implications of yielding on the trade argument automatically require acceptance of much bigger changes than they understand. Think of it this way: if the problem was a narrow industrial subsidy tax dispute, leveling tariffs of 10% on a specific Chinese sector would be fine. However, that isn't the problem. the problem requires much more deep and broad rethinks. Only now is the polite company Acela Corridor crowd recognizing the futility of trying to work through the WTO or how you reorganize international trade to avoid key China dependencies or how you run industrial policy to avoid real traps that allow you secure key goods. Recognizing the trade problem should automatically carry with it massive implications, but most are unable to acknowledge the weight of this implication.
I supposed some progress is good but so much further to go
Hey, spicy ranch-hands, new expansion pack just dropped! The Asian Apprehension Achievement is live now!
Not gonna lie, been needing another adrenaline bump and haven't had any opportunities for a while. I've almost got the full American collection (except Chilean & Canadian), but no Asians. The language barrier will be interesting, but everybody seems to understand blinding lights, angry shouting, and pointing to the ground.
@TimOnPoint@braxton_mccoy@XanBongino Twitter has a search feature. You can search for certain words tweeted by specific people pretty easily. Don’t think he scrolled through and read every tweet from the last 6 years.
Take this to the bank: if Trump actually talks to President Lai, the Acela Corridor crowd is going to rapidly veer from caving to Trump is about to start WWIII by crossing Beijing's red line