Rajnish Busa

[Rajnish Busa @Rajnish_Busa_]

@AimInvestments Seeing this for a long time

[Rajnish Busa @Rajnish_Busa_]

@PMOIndia @narendramodi Nifty dekho ek baar. Apne jo top dia tha fail ho raha hai 🤣🤣

[Rajnish Busa @Rajnish_Busa_]

@abhibathla38 @raghav_chadha Is dalle ko ye kon Samjae

[Rajnish Busa @Rajnish_Busa_]

@raghav_chadha 28 Dina ka suppose recharge 300 hai aur 30 din ka 330 kar denge. Ham to wahi k wahi. Akkal nahi hai kya tujme? Din ko adjust nahi karna hai price ko control kaena hai bewkoof. Aya bada constructive politics wala party badlu dalla.

[Rajnish Busa @Rajnish_Busa_]

@Mitesh_Engr True

[Rajnish Busa @Rajnish_Busa_]

@UC_Assist How to contact their customer care. It’s worst company ever.

[Rajnish Busa @Rajnish_Busa_]

@urbancompany_UC @abhirajbhal UC denied installation saying their technician is in home town and it will take 1 month to install. They wanted to say they if all of their technician will go to home town they will close their company. Is it so? My pin code is 361004

[Rajnish Busa @Rajnish_Busa_]

@UC_Assist Nobody called me for video call help.

[Nitin R @finallynitin]

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[Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎 @TheOneLanceB]

I’ll be real… what the fuck is the point of a “small account challenge?”

The logic is “I’m good at trading so I’m gona show it by making as little money trading as possible” ?????

Or is it: “Hey, look how not scalable my strategies are!”

No trader on earth at a real prop desk has EVER said “please set my BP to $10k”. You all are crazy.

[Rajnish Busa @Rajnish_Busa_]

@sudheep8531 Half picture Bata ke logo me fomo mat create karo.

[Rajnish Busa @Rajnish_Busa_]

@sudheep8531 Over all negative kitna hai wo bhi bata do

[anshuman tiwari @anshuman1tiwari]

#thebottomline
The Recession Clock
Moody's at 48.6%. Goldman at 30%. What the Market Knows That Washington Isn't Saying

The Number That Ends Presidencies
Back in October 1973, gasoline lines snaked around city blocks. Nixon was technically winning. By August 1974, he was gone—and it wasn't just Watergate. The Arab oil embargo had sent prices up 40%, cratered consumer confidence, and made every other scandal feel unforgivable. The economy is where presidents actually go on trial. The jury's already assembling.

Trump launched this war on an economy already wobbling. A dismal February jobs report showed an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs—against forecasts for a 60,000 gain—while unemployment crept toward 4.5% and wage growth slowed, especially for lower-income Americans.

The war didn't create these conditions. It inherited them, then poured accelerant on everything underneath.

The Data Wall Nobody In Washington Is Reading Aloud
The recession probability numbers circulating on Wall Street this week aren't predictions. They're confessions.

In normal times, the risk of a US recession in any 12-month stretch runs about 20%. Moody's Analytics is now at 48.6%. Goldman Sachs at 30%—its third upward revision this year. Wilmington Trust at 45%. EY-Parthenon at 40%, with the explicit caveat that "those odds could rapidly rise in the event of a more prolonged or severe Middle East conflict."

Every major forecaster is running at least double the historical baseline. Several are nearly at a coin flip.

Moody's put it plainly: every US recession since World War II, except for Covid, was preceded by a spike in oil prices. Goldman projects Brent averaging $115 in April, raises PCE inflation to 3.1% by December, cuts full-year GDP growth to 2.1%, and sees second-half growth slowing to between 1.25% and 1.75%. Growth at 1.25% annualized in Q3 isn't a recession by the textbook.

Fuel prices in California are already nudging $9 a gallon. That's not a data point. That's a political obituary being written at every pump.

The Political Transmission Mechanism
At what exact threshold does this become Trump's economy rather than Iran's war?
History gives three markers—and the US is approaching all three at once.

First, sustained gasoline above $4.50 nationally for more than six weeks shifts voter blame from external cause to presidential management. The US crossed $4 three weeks ago. Goldman's rule: a sustained 10% oil increase adds 0.2 percentage points to inflation and trims GDP by 0.1 points. Brent is up 45% since February 27.

Second, unemployment crossing 4.7% historically pushes presidential approval below the midterm recovery threshold. Goldman already projects 4.6% by year-end. One bad monthly print separates forecast from catastrophe.

Third, consumer confidence below 65 on the University of Michigan index has preceded every midterm wave election against the incumbent party—1973, 1979, 2008, no exceptions. The trajectory under current conditions points directly at that floor before summer.

Wars have a precise political shelf life. The Gulf War gave Bush Sr. a 91% approval rating in March 1991. He lost the presidency nineteen months later on domestic economic grounds.

Iraq gave Bush Jr. his second term in 2004, then cost his party Congress in 2006 by the largest margin in a generation.

Johnson's Vietnam destroyed a presidency so completely he didn't run again.

The pattern holds across decades and parties: rally-around-the-flag peaks within weeks, economic consequences arrive two months later, the political bill follows six months behind the oil price.

Trump's rally moment peaked around March 5. The economic consequences are arriving now. The bill is dated November 2026.

Why Even Peace Doesn't Undo the Damage
A ceasefire this week doesn't reverse what's already broken. The fertilizer shortage hits harvests in October. The remittance collapse across South Asia compresses household consumption through Q3.

Airlines absorb war-premium jet fuel through summer and pass costs to consumers precisely as recession fears peak. These are timed charges already placed—with fuses of varying lengths, burning regardless of what happens in Muscat.

Every oil shock of this magnitude since 1945 has claimed a political casualty. Trump has midterms in November. The question is not whether a reckoning comes—it’s whether Washington exits the war before the economic bill arrives at the ballot box in legible form.

The clock is running. At $115 Brent in April—Goldman’s own forecast—the alarm goes off. The only uncertainty: whether anyone in the White House is listening. #IranWar‌

[Trading with Groww @TradeWithGroww_]

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[Nav Toor @heynavtoor]

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[Manas Arora @iManasArora]

It’s live.

New podcast is out.

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Just real conversations about risk, losses, discipline and the boring stuff that actually makes money.

@_groww @TradeWithGroww_

[Rajnish Busa @Rajnish_Busa_]

@mystocks_in Mandir wahi banayenge 😆😆

[Rajnish Busa @Rajnish_Busa_]

@iManasArora And zero productivity too

[Karel Mercx @KarelMercx]

https://t.co/ln3HPAE88N