Chetan R

father by choice ,investor by passion & trader by hobby. views are personal 🤞🤞

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

The next IND–Pak conflict will be decided by Iran & Saudi . The moment Pak is pushed to fight Iran, it will open a front with India , knowing it cannot afford a direct fight with Iran when around 20% of its population is Shia. I expect this scenario to unfold within this year.

[Veles @velesxbt]

Flip a coin. Heads, your account goes up 50 percent. Tails, it goes down 40 percent. Expected value is plus 5 percent a flip, so you take the bet a hundred times. Expected value says your $10,000 becomes $1.3 million. The most likely path leaves you with $52.

An MIT professor explains the entire gap in one sentence, in a free undergraduate lecture, then moves on like it was nothing.

His name is John Tsitsiklis. He teaches undergraduate probability at MIT. He also proved in 1994 that Q-learning converges, the result that says the algorithm under modern reinforcement learning does not merely happen to work, it has to. INFORMS gave him the von Neumann Theory Prize for that line of work in 2018.

He runs the lecture on the students for an hour.

First he takes the average apart. A random variable is not a number, it is a function. A bar graph of probabilities is a PMF. Expectation is the center of gravity of that bar graph, the single point where you slide a pen underneath and the thing balances. He is slow and patient about it. By minute 35 you trust the average completely.

Then he stops and says he wants to give "one general word of caution."

"The average of a function of a random variable, in general, is not the same as the function of the average... in general, you can not reason on the average."

Everything before that sentence was the trap.

Go back to the coin. Compounding is not addition. Up 50 then down 40 is not plus 10. It is 1.5 times 0.6, which is 0.9. You are down 10 percent. Do that 50 times each way and you have 0.9 to the fiftieth power. Fifty-two dollars.

So where did the $1.3 million go? It is real. It is parked at the very top of the distribution. Run the hundred flips and only about one path in seven finishes above where you started. Only about one in a hundred ever reaches that $1.3 million. Those few runs are gigantic, and they carry the average for everybody else. You will not be in them.

In February 2018 that trade had a ticker. XIV, short volatility, $1.9 billion in it. It had paid on the average day for seven years. On February 5 the VIX rose 115.6 percent, the biggest one-day jump ever recorded. XIV went from $115.55 to $4.22 overnight. Credit Suisse shut the note two weeks later. Nobody in it was wrong about the average. They were wrong about which path they were standing on.

The usable version: your compound return is your average return minus roughly half your variance. A system averaging 20 percent a year at 40 percent vol does not compound at 20. It compounds at 12. That missing 8 is not fees or slippage.

Tsitsiklis delivers the most expensive sentence in finance, finishes the variance section, and ends with "see you on Wednesday."

The lecture is free. The average is free. Knowing which path you are standing on is the trade.

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

Turns out ,it was indeed time to takeoney out ...
https://t.co/sfAZNRnQik

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

@Reematendulkar A full context would help .
The same report suggests that th fwd projection fr South Korea is 38% in fy27 compared to 320 % in fy26 .

Time to inject fresh money in South Korea was yesterday. Now is the time to trail the money .

God bless retail investors following headlines.

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

@perplexed2012 Happy Gurupurnima 🙏🙏

Sure ,will include few examples .

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

As a gratitude ,will post a video on sector rotation coming weekend 🙏🙏

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

@iPranav_14 Happy Guru Purnima Pranav ji 🙏

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

With what happened in last two weeks ,I am fairly confident now that us -iran war will continue in 2027 also.

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

@arvi79 Happy Guru Purnima Aravindan Ji 🙏🙏

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

https://t.co/RISfoehnNp

😐😶

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

@DRKUMAR25 Happy Guru Purnima sir 🙏🙏

[Jiten Parmar @jitenkparmar]

On this Guru Purnima, I want to share a very simple, powerful and important slide from my presentation.

Happy investing to all.

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

@arvi79 Next 3 months would be tough .

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

A guy has NGO & his college accreditation suspended .
fasting starts ,his second wife is absent. his associate call police to take to hospital where his wife waiting to negotiate behind door ..then third in command frm power comes up to seal the deal & GUY decides to oblidge .

[Jensen Huang @JensenHuang]

For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter.

AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country.

Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty.

The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models.

https://t.co/AUKzoQ5Ikb

[surendra singh @ssingh1950]

Look at the result ,it seems it will fall now...best of luck investor who are chasing buzzing stock ...first sign of this was promoter holding

[Anuj Dhar @anujdhar]

So long the protestors were sitting on dharna peacefully, the Govt did nothing. But after the protestors became violent, the Govt started giving in. And, we are expected to believe this very government's propaganda that the ruthless colonial British rulers fled from India because of peaceful, non-violent protests.

[Idc🎳🇦🇷. @dudeitsokay]

ban reservation.

[Chetan R @rajorich7]

Nothing is going to change in INDIA unless justic system is sorted , that's the rot eating India day by day.

I don't like noises and prefer to focus on cause rather than symptoms.

[Dr Prashant Mishra @drprashantmish6]

A patient came to me needing bypass surgery. Since he worked as a driver and the procedure at our hospital costs around 4.25 lakh rs , I advised him to go to a civic (BMC) hospital where the surgery could be performed free of cost through a government scheme.
​That evening, his son called me and said, "Doctor, we would prefer to get the surgery done here at Thunga Hospital only .
Please help us reduce the cost as much as possible." I assured him I would do whatever I could to help.
​The next day, the patient's boss transferred the required funds directly via RTGS.
​After a successful surgery, I called his boss to update him: "Thank you for your support—Mr. Shukla’s surgery was successful."
​He replied, "Thank you, Doctor, for taking such good care of my colleague."
​Surprised, I asked, "Colleague? But he mentioned he works as your driver."
​He answered, "Doctor, we work together."
​"I understand, but isn't he your driver?" I asked again.
​He explained gently, "He has been with me for 15 years, and I don't see him as just my driver. I work, and he works. We simply hold different roles in our daily life, but we work together. His job is different from mine, but we are colleagues."
​I was completely speechless.
​The lesson learned: Never look down on your domestic help or staff as mere "servants." They are the ones who keep our lives running smoothly, and they deserve equal respect and dignity.

[Vishnu Agarwal @vishnuagarwal64]

Today, our government confirmed that there is no proposal currently to scrap the LTCG tax on equities.

It reminds me of Samir Arora's argument, who wants India to scrap capital gains tax on equities entirely, and the math backs him more than people admit.

Across FY24 and FY25, the government raised Rs 2.01 lakh crore from LTCG on equities alone.

That is roughly Rs 275 crore a day pulled from investors.

If you observe, the US taxes long-term gains more lightly than ordinary income, deliberately, to keep people invested.

India does the opposite. It taxes the exit while begging retail to stay in for the long haul.

You cannot ask a nation to build an equity culture and then penalise the patience it demands.

Arora ji's point is not about revenue. It is about which behaviour you reward.

Source: Business Standard.