Rocky

[perigeeaero.shop inc (wokely) @Orbital_Perigee]

THAYS MY FUCKING MODEL

ON NBC

WHAT

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

There has been a lot of hand wringing on the appropriate valuation of SpaceX. Some large institutions believe SpaceX can only be valued at half what the market seems to be willing to pay for it. Others are claiming it has 15X appreciation ahead of it.

Almost all of this difference of opinion comes down to how comfortable you are modeling beyond 2030 and what valuation method you use.

2030 valuation using a traditional Gordan DCF produces a very different result than a 2040 EV/EBITDA Multiple. Both have pros and cons. Most analysts don’t really discuss this and lead with a headline number.

We are very comfortable modeling out to 2040, as large portions of what SpaceX is proposing is real world infrastructure, which provides modelable physics constraints to anchor against.

The analysis we released today explores this in-depth, its open to the public all the way through IPO. I highly encourage you check it out prior to then.
https://t.co/McShCl78uo

We’ve run 5,000 monte carlo runs across 500 variables (real number, even though it sounds fake) and three valuation methods.

This video is of a 3D cloud chart showing every simulation outcome expected in valuation output across two of the most impactful variables to the model when using an EV/EBITDA multiple from 2026 to 2040.

The horizontal axis is the steepness of the orbital data center demand S-curve.

The vertical axis is the rate at which chip compute efficiency becomes cheaper.

Each of the 5,000 dots is one simulated future; green dots are the ones where SpaceX's 2040 value clears the $1.77T IPO line, over time.

Under EV/EBITDA valuation through 2040, 96% of our simulated futures clear the expected IPO price once the bell rings Friday.

We aren’t publishing this publicly to tell investors what the stock is worth, we’re publishing this to help investors understand the world of outcomes, what the fundamentals suggest through 2040, and what frankly most analysis simply won’t share.

SpaceX is a generational company working on long term infrastructure harnessing a domain no one has been able to tap in so far: space.

It deserves doing the work as an investor. because this in not financial advice.

The cleanest way to hold SpaceX is a bond stapled to a call option (AI-Compute); Starlink is the bond, the near term SatCom annuity that funds the next flywheel.

Understand the world of outcomes and take your position accordingly.

Comparables and P/E won't take you far enough.

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@Maxarick Why does gender matter at all? It’s all about qualifications and expertise. Not to mention the ratio of male to female astronauts.. Bigger pool of qualified astronauts in the male section, not sexist just true.

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@COSportsNut Champ Bailey #24

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

Great rare interview with Bret (SpaceX CFO).

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@sairahul1 lol this is cute.

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@InvestingAddict Only an idiot would ever sell.

[Nic Cruz Patane @niccruzpatane]

Ron Baron believes @SpaceX will become the largest, most profitable company on the planet.

“We think it’s going to be worth $10T, $20T, or $30T. People in the company believe I’m lowballing it.”

I don’t see it any other way myself. Nobody else is doing what SpaceX is doing.

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@deltaIV9250 Then you are dependent on what they built, which is dangerous. They need a truly truth seeking ai.

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@otherside_X42 We still can, and we will.

[Ti Morse @ti_morse]

Set is ready @ElonMusk

We built it 25min from downtown Austin and can shoot anytime in the next 7 days on 1h notice.

Humanity is on the verge of becoming a multi-planet species and spacefaring civilization.

My goal with this interview is to help people viscerally feel what that future is going to look like and get everyone excited to help build it.

[Adeo Ressi @adeoressi]

I organized an intervention to stop Elon from starting SpaceX. Here is the story...

Twenty five years ago, Elon and I sat in a car on a dark stretch of Long Island highway, two neurodiverse geeks staring at the night sky and wondering what came next. We had both experienced substantial exits and felt the weight of possibility ahead of us.

When I joked about 'space' while gazing upward, neither of us imagined we were planting the seed for what would become the largest IPO in history. We spent the next two hours debating why space was so hard. In the end, rockets are fuel and metal. We also debated where to go, and it was crystal clear that Mars was the only real destination.

Upon returning to NYC, we embarked on a global tour of space, meeting space agencies and luminaries worldwide. This opened our eyes to an industry stuck in bureaucratic thinking. If things continued at that pace, it was clear that we would never explore space in our lifetime.

So, we launched Life to Mars to show the world that two ambitious young men (29 and 30 years old), could send life to Mars without any government backing or support. We planned to send and grow plants on Mars, though some were pushing us to send mice.

We had a $50 MM budget that rested on our purchase of two Russian ICBMs for $7 MM each. We assumed one ICBM would fail, and we would learn and fix everything before launching again. When Elon went back to actually buy the ICBMs, the Russians tripled the price, bringing out launch costs from a total of $14 MM to $42 MM.

Our ambitious Life to Mars plan was no longer viable.

As you might imagine, Elon was not pleased. So, he decided to start SpaceX and create his own Mars rockets. Now, this is a crazy idea, both now and at the time, so I organized a large panel of top space experts, and we ambushed him at the Georgian Hotel one morning. It was set up like an intervention for an alcoholic, but for space.

Elon looked me in the eye when leaving the room and said, "I am going to do this." The intervention failed. Elon was committed. The rest is history.

I am excited to see this IPO after 25 years of hard work. What SpaceX has done is a testament to human will and overcoming insurmountable obstacles. It's nothing short of amazing.

Congratulations, E. Amazing.

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@ScottLikedSLS @Maxarick You showed a graphic with no meaning or context just random images.

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@ScottLikedSLS @Maxarick Those are last figures SpaceX gave regarding payload volume , it still says over 1,000 cubic meters of payload volume. Don’t be mad at me be mad at SpaceX, it’s on their website.

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@ScottLikedSLS @Maxarick That literally shows nothing lol

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@ScottLikedSLS @Maxarick Which part? Don’t be ambiguous, explain yourself.

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@ScottLikedSLS @Maxarick There will be 180 square meters of more payload volume in starship V4 than NG 9x4. Not to mention booster V4 has over 4 times the lifting capability as NG 9x4. Even with similar payload volumes starship can take much much heavier things to orbit.

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@ScottLikedSLS @Maxarick lol well you’re gonna hate to hear V4 has much more payload volume as well. NG is cool but it’s just not competitive with starship. There is no single metric where NG beats starship.

[Rocky @RaptorForge42]

@Evidentioual @Maxarick If you’re allergic to research just say that.