RayMorale

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[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@LMastro99 @BryceLottos @peanut_bettor @nicksummy A lot of books refuse to adapt and update their pricing methods. Call it stubborn old heads, execs underpaying traders/DS, etc. I don’t blame top down bettors - if books don’t change how losing markets are being priced…it’s open season. But when limits happen, don’t act shocked

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@nicksummy @LMastro99 @BryceLottos @peanut_bettor All college baseball basically come from circa or DK this year. Only DK opens overnight, then everyone jumps on a feed and copies. Circa the only other book originating bases, even BOL just copies DK then moves off exchange orders/max bets (only take $250 in most cases).

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@LMastro99 @BryceLottos @peanut_bettor @nicksummy You would be shocked (not really) at the lack of sophisticated modeling going on in the industry.

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@LMastro99 @GamblingSheriff @peanut_bettor @nicksummy Correct, which is essentially the same thing @peanut_bettor is saying. As someone that works for a popular book, Reading an oddscreen doesn’t provide sportsbooks any valuable information. It’s low hanging fruit, it’s easy to bet. It’s why origination is viewed in higher regard.

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@nicksummy @peanut_bettor It’s not about resources imo. Now if you want to get into greedy mentality, how books can technically afford to give even arbers higher betting limits, 100%. But as a business - it’s foolish to continue taking action from them. No origination, no value. Just sheep, to be frank.

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@lognadkins @peanut_bettor So now from a sportsbooks’s perspective when profiling an arber, they’re seeing someone lacking an original thought, but still bad business as they’re reading an oddscreen and picking off stale numbers. Not an advocate for books, but it’s the nature of the business.

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@lognadkins @peanut_bettor Absolutely - which is why platforms like NoVig, Kalshi etc. welcome the liquidity with open arms. Sportsbooks realize sharper originators exist on these exchanges though, so the arb money they’re receiving is even less desired than normal.

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@matchpo1ntbets There’s no way people still listen to this guy, right?

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@ManOfTheLibrary Who let this scammer back on X?

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@TheGoobr Win more bets you fucking loser 🤣🤣

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@PlusEVAnalytics It obviously depends on the size of the bankroll, but when the bonus bet is
2x yours, it might be plus ev long term to guarantee that large of a profit (in retrospect). Certainly not the mathematical edge short-term, but curious in your thoughts. Thanks!

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@PlusEVAnalytics Question - Wouldn’t it be more advantageous to arb out that 10k bonus bet if his BR is 5k? While sacrilegious in thought, the idea of essentially doubling your bankroll off a free bet allows you to increase your unit size faster, ultimately leading to quicker gains.

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@On3 @PeteNakos So he bet underage and on/against his own team? Yeah he's not playing this season.

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@Zaydadonn7 @Blkeddie412_ @BrookieJ07 You ain’t getting laid big guy

[RayMorale @RayMorale35]

@SleeperNFL @TonyPauline @SleeperJets @Jets_Lead @jetsmuse They’re both going to be worse than Bain