P2 🙂 Happy to be on the podium, got a bit lucky with the VSC that helped us to get in contention for the win but Kimi was just too quick, next stop: Budapest😘
Since CPI is either going to be a clearing event or a thanos snap event, I figured it might be a decent time to be helpful.
If you’re relatively new to investing, then you’re bound to learn about what happens when your portfolio goes down.
Now, this is coming from someone who’s portfolio is up a paltry 20% YTD and hasn’t been gunning it on risk recently. Although also someone who’s been trading and investing their own money for the better part of a decade and has managed to not go bust (except for one, very painful time early on).
If you’re constructing a portfolio it’s important to realize it is its own position rather than a collection of positions. A stock is not just a company but the sum of its valuation, shareholder base, its sensitivity to liquidity, crowding, financing/rates and its catalyst calendar. High beta stocks are often five different trades in one ticker.
You should always have a working idea of your “tilts”. Does your portfolio go up/down more if tech rallies, if certain countries outperform, if a specific thematic is validated etc etc.
In general, you should not have a portfolio of 20 different stocks that all act the same. You might think you won’t, but getting the value of your book cut in half will make you do stupid things. (As an aside, this is also why even though buying the dip is generally a good strategy, progressively buying the dip early into a drawdown can make you mess up at the exact lows.)
High beta stocks come in all shapes and colors but in general they are selling the distant future. In good markets, the time out to that future is cheap. In bad markets, you start paying rent. That rent tends to appear as a lower multiple even while estimates stay the same.
A lot of times people will tell you the only thing that matters in a drawdown is “is the thesis intact?”. That’s one aspect, the other two are “how have expectations changed?” and “did you size like an idiot?”.
Don’t average down just to improve your cost basis, the market doesn’t care about your cost basis. Only add if you can truly underwrite the expected return improving, and that means taking a view that goes beyond a default return to multiples that may be unsustainable.
Price can become a fundamental and technical sell offs can manufacture fundamental problems - reflexivity cuts both ways.
The best question you can ask yourself in a drawdown is “from here, what is the range of outcomes and what’s the best use of the next dollar?”. If early in a drawdown you note that every time one sector goes up your portfolio goes down, it could be a decent idea to add exposure to that sector.
The ultimate goal is not to avoid every drawdown but to make sure no single drawdown takes away your ability to act on real opportunities when they arise.
No amount of truisms will help make anyone a better investor, but there is something you can do right now. If this is one of your first few drawdowns, you can observe how you react. Take notes on it. Find out what mistakes you make and then optimize your portfolio, sizing, strategy etc to compensate for those shortcomings. It’s a lot easier to do that than try to fight your own psychology - and anyone who pretends there’s a one size fits all answer to that is lying.
Claude Fable 5 will be available again globally tomorrow.
After a series of productive conversations with the US government, we're redeploying the model with a new set of classifiers to target and block more cybersecurity tasks. In the near term, some routine tasks like coding and debugging will fall back to Opus 4.8. We’ll continue to refine these classifiers over the coming weeks to reduce false positives and better distinguish genuine misuse from legitimate requests.
We’ve also begun drafting a consensus framework—with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and other Glasswing partners—for assessing the severity of AI jailbreaks and how AI developers should respond to them. We invite other industry partners and model providers to join us in this effort.
Finally, we’re scaling up our collaboration with the US government on model testing and safeguards. This will include pre-release access to models and safeguards for evaluation, information sharing on jailbreaks and misuse, and dedicated resources for joint research.
Thank you to our users for your patience, and to our partners across the government, industry, and the research community who worked alongside us to make Fable 5 available again.
Read our full blog: https://t.co/VHyum831ri
100 000 abonnés, nous y sommes ! 🎉
Avant de vous annoncer la suite, je tenais très sincèrement à tous vous remercier 🙏🏻
Lorsque j’ai commencé à publier ici, mon objectif était simple : démocratiser l’investissement en bourse et rendre l’éducation financière accessible au plus grand nombre.
Cet objectif partait d’un constat très simple, auquel j’avais moi-même été confronté lorsque j’ai commencé à investir en 2013 : à l’époque, il y avait très peu de contenu accessible, clair et concret sur le sujet.
Des années plus tard, ce sont des dizaines de milliers de tweets publiés, des Div’Letters envoyées chaque semaine, des millions d’interactions, des centaines de milliers de commentaires,
Et surtout… je pense pouvoir l’affirmer : du contenu (gratuit ou payant) qui aura aidé des milliers de personnes à se lancer dans cette magnifique aventure.
Même si, très honnêtement, le ratio temps passé / argent gagné via Twitter et tout ce qui tourne autour est probablement l’un des moins bons parmi tous les business que j’opère,
Cela reste, de très loin, celui que je préfère faire au quotidien.
Parce que partager sa passion, transmettre ce qu’on a appris, voir des personnes progresser, investir, comprendre, se lancer et parfois même changer complètement leur rapport à l’argent…
C’est une immense consécration pour moi.
Bref, tout ça pour dire : un immense merci à tous d’avoir été là ces dernières années 🙏🏻
Parce que la création de contenu ne fonctionne vraiment que lorsqu’elle va dans les deux sens.
Si ce compte a grandi, c’est aussi grâce à vos retours, vos partages, vos messages, vos questions, vos critiques et votre confiance.
La mission est noble, mais elle est très loin d’être terminée,
Et mon petit doigt me dit que, plus que jamais, il est primordial pour les Français d’investir une partie de leurs revenus chaque mois.
On va donc continuer tous ensemble sur ce même chemin, avec le même objectif : rendre l’investissement en bourse plus simple, plus accessible et plus concret pour le plus grand nombre 🎯
Pour marquer le coup de ce cap très symbolique des 100 000 abonnés, j’avais envie de faire quelque chose que je n’ai encore jamais fait jusqu’ici : un jeu concours.
Pour y participer, c’est très simple :
1️⃣ Liker et retweeter ce tweet
2️⃣ Follow @Divs_King si ce n’est pas encore fait
3️⃣ Mettre un petit commentaire ici, en taguant l’un de vos amis que vous aimeriez motiver à se lancer en bourse.
Au niveau des lots à gagner, il y aura :
• 10 × 200 €, envoyés via PayPal 💸
• Un iPhone 17 Pro Max 📱
• 20 accès offert à La Méthode AQRP 👨🏻🎓
Fin du concours demain mardi à 00h00.
Le tirage au sort aura lieu mercredi 1er juillet et les lots seront envoyés dans la foulée parmi les personnes qui auront liké / retweeté ce post.
Bonne chance à tous ☘️
Et 100 000 fois,
MER-CI 🙏🏻