Dave Wasserman

Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.

[Cook Political Report @CookPolitical]

Iowa is now the center of the political universe.

Read our post-primary analysis: https://t.co/eAs4I7Wm1c

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

It would be disastrous for Dems to get locked out of a seat they redrew to be a safe pickup, #CA06. There’s still good reason believe Pan (D) will ultimately edge out Stansfield (R) for the second slot, but it’s the difference between a sure D pickup and an assured R hold.

[Paul Mitchell @paulmitche11]

🚨 🚨 #CD6

[Cook Political Report @CookPolitical]

🎯 Mark your calendars! @Redistrict and the CPR team goes live TONIGHT at 9m ET to talk primaries in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Tune in on Substack: https://t.co/7P5ksbon00

[Patrick Marley @patrickdmarley]

How this age of extreme gerrymandering is transforming American politics — via @patrickdmarley @oliviacgeorge https://t.co/f1dqPgq7PO

[Amy Walter @amyewalter]

April @CookPolitical Battleground District Survey, 25% of Rs & 23% of Indies said they liked Trump’s policies, but not behavior; trust R’s more than D’s on economy/culture issues. But, when Trump is center stage, the harder for substance to come through.

[PBS News @NewsHour]

Virginia’s Supreme Court struck down a plan that would have redrawn the state’s congressional maps to benefit Democrats. In an opinion, a majority of the justices said a referendum passed by voters last month was unconstitutional.

It’s a major setback for Democrats, as both parties wage a war of mid-decade redistricting.

@IAmAmnaNawaz speaks to David Wasserman (@Redistrict) for more.

[Graham Moomaw @gmoomaw]

Seems like SCOVA's main holding is that, contrary to the Democratic lawyers' argument, an election starts when people start voting

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

Enormous setback for Dems as VA Supreme Court strikes down the referendum vote and therefore Dems’ 10D-1R gerrymander. Now best Dems can hope for is to pick up two seats under current map, not four.

[Brandon Jarvis @Jaaavis]

“This violation irreparably undermines the integrity of the resulting referendum vote and renders it null and void. For this reason, the congressional district maps issued by this Court in 2021 pursuant to Article II, Section 6-A of the Constitution of Virginia remain the governing maps for the upcoming 2026 congressional elections.”

[Amy Walter @amyewalter]

New GOP friendly maps in AL/TN/LA/FL can help R’s a bit, but they can’t change the political environment. Even if those maps pass legal scrutiny AND Dem map in VA gets struck down, most realistic scenario is that R’s net 4-5 seats from redistricting. https://t.co/eyOnTcczdn

[Jacob Rubashkin @JacobRubashkin]

Something to consider as Republican states look to redraw their maps following Callais: unlike in TX or NC or FL, where there will still be Dems in the delegation or statewide, these states are considering getting rid of all of their Dem voices. That could give some pause…

[Matthew Klein @MattKleinOnline]

We’re in uncharted waters now with a high degree of uncertainty. We don’t know how the SCOTUS standard will be applied going forward. But we do know that Southern states will take an aim at many Black-majority seats, most likely before 2028.

Read our full thoughts on VRA here:

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: Three big takeaways from the Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Act decision. https://t.co/5z1PB0egwX

[Matthew Klein @MattKleinOnline]

Initial VRA thoughts — working this through on the fly.

Louisiana and South Carolina are the most likely to draw out Dem seats. But both have their primaries very soon and the filing deadlines are long gone. Doubtful there’s enough time for new maps this year.

(1/?)

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

It's nearly impossible to disentangle race and partisanship in the South, which is why this ruling could have such apocalyptic consequences for Black representation across the Deep South (more likely in '28 than '26).

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

Not a legal expert, but to my plain reading this is the passage in the ruling that seems most concerning for the future strength of Section 2, and likely why Elena Kagan was so alarmed in dissent.

The key question going forward: can plaintiffs produce evidence for any current Black-majority Southern district showing that racially polarized voting exists in a way that cannot simply be explained by party affiliation?

[Amy Walter @amyewalter]

And, for that “temporary’ pause in CA of non-partisan redistricting until 2030. Hard to believe that Dems in the state will not fight for partisan redistricting if Rs get rid of 5-7 Dem seats in the south in 2028

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: DeSantis gerrymander targets four Dem seats, but not all are guaranteed GOP pickups in 2026 - and three FL GOP incumbents would remain at some risk. My full analysis: https://t.co/4JFt0h61Li

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

The four Dems most imperiled by this proposal:

#FL09 Darren Soto (D)
#FL14 Kathy Castor (D)
#FL23 Jared Moskowitz (D)
#FL25 Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

The riskiest play? Targeting Castor, b/c surrounding Tampa Bay GOP seats would be absorbing many of her Dem voters.

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

NEW: per Fox News, new FL map proposed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would target four Dem seats, aiming to convert a 20R-8D delegation to 24R-4D. But in a year like 2026, not all of the 24 seats would be safe for the GOP. More from @CookPolitical soon. https://t.co/Io1uwuNtTW

[Matthew Klein @MattKleinOnline]

With our @CookPolitical rating changes following the Virginia referendum's passage, the median House seat is now getting dangerously close to Lean Democrat.

That didn't even happen in 2018. Needless to say, Democrats are the clear favorites to win a House majority.

[Amy Walter @amyewalter]

If you want to understand what comes next in VA, read @ercovey ‘s very smart piece here!

https://t.co/AaIGbJKcSp