Leveraged Dopamine Fiend

Grinding $TSLA, $SPY, and $QQQ options on the regular. Getting my hands dirty in the Nat Gas and Oil pits. Experienced Real Estate investor.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

$SPY Rally in its 10th week.

Churning in the $750-760 price range for the 8th day now.

Market tops for rallies like this normally take 1-3 weeks to form.

There is still potential for another leg higher in the rally if VIX continues to compress and some of the mag 7 begin to rally.

VIX compressing down to 15.40 again today, potentially forming a double bottom.

Once VIX stops compressing, the rally will become more fragile, especially with only 2 weeks to go until opex.

Very noticeable rotations between mag 7 stocks in the last two weeks:

2-3 day rallies turned into false breakouts for $NVDA, $META, $MSFT, $AAPL, all immediately faded back into their recent recent price ranges.

$Googl, $TSLA & $AMZN all holding below their recent price ranges.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

$750 by end of the week seems probable.

Will plan to load up on puts again if VIX compresses between $17-17.50 by end of the week and $SPY moves up past $750.

Mechanical hedging will drive price towards $750 this week unless CPI is very high on Wednesday.

Institutions are loaded up on puts and are pricing in a $SPY drop to $720 by June 18th and $QQQ drop to $685.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

VIX up 40% in one day 😆 we got the majority of the move down I was expecting to happen in the next 2 weeks.

Will keep an eye on the mag 7 stocks for signs institutions are accumulating- $META buy zone looks like it is $580-595 just below the recent range of $600-620.

$MSFT back into the $400-420 range.

Both good buying opportunities.

The other mag 7’s look like they have more potential to run lower over the next couple of weeks!

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

Was not expecting $QQQ to drop 3%.

Most MAG 7 stocks are near the bottom or below their recent price range with the exception of $AAPL.

Expect $APPL to move down to $300-305 by next week if the sell off continues.

Risk off benefits $APPL initially in a pullback but it’s not immune to a general market sell off.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

$SPY Rally in its 10th week.

Churning in the $750-760 price range for the 8th day now.

Market tops for rallies like this normally take 1-3 weeks to form.

There is still potential for another leg higher in the rally if VIX continues to compress and some of the mag 7 begin to rally.

VIX compressing down to 15.40 again today, potentially forming a double bottom.

Once VIX stops compressing, the rally will become more fragile, especially with only 2 weeks to go until opex.

Very noticeable rotations between mag 7 stocks in the last two weeks:

2-3 day rallies turned into false breakouts for $NVDA, $META, $MSFT, $AAPL, all immediately faded back into their recent recent price ranges.

$Googl, $TSLA & $AMZN all holding below their recent price ranges.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

@DrakeMT Team loses. Deflect blame on refs. Repeat.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

@unusual_whales Fewer high paying tech jobs will not bode well for consumer spending or the economy.

The list of economic headwinds continues to get bigger.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

@JustBins 😆😆

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

$TSLA had 3 probes down to $390-397 hour range after hours today.

Will be watching for another move down to this range within the next few sessions if price doesn’t move and hold above $420 this week!

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

The problem is $SNDK and $MU aren’t the market leaders.

They are a big piece of the latest rally but the majority of market leaders (mag 7) need to continue higher for the market to continue to rally into June.

If the chop continues with MAG 7 this month, expect somewhat of a pullback by June before $SPY and $QQQ make the next move upward.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

@Odourboy1 @JimChuong If you have a house worth $2M, sell it, move somewhere you can buy a house for $400-500k and you can earn $130-160k per year with an 8-10% ROI on a balanced portfolio

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

I agree it’s not worth it for a $2M home in Vancouver or Toronto, but there are people who bought properties for $300-400k back in the 90’s and in some cases the LAND is now worth $10M. Tax free.

I couldn’t disagree more that your home is not an investment, comparing stocks to real estate is apples to oranges.

There are many benefits to buying real estate that are difficult to come by with stocks, primarily the benefit of LEVERAGE.

I bought my first home 9 years ago with a $15k down payment.

Lived in it for 7 years, it appreciated by $100k over that time.

Rented out the basement for 5 years which offset the monthly costs of the property by half.

That is a 33% annual ROI - tax free.

After I moved out, the ROI got much better.

Between the monthly cash flow & mortgage being paid down it’s over a 100% annual ROI on the initial down payment.

I wouldn’t consider this deal a home run but im a lot better off that I would have been if I rented a place for $2000 per month for 7 years.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

@ZeeContrarian1 Hundreds of millions each quarter to all the employees who have accumulated stock.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

TSLA had 3 probes down to $390-397 hour range after hours today.

Will be watching for another move down to this range within the next few sessions if price doesn’t move and hold above $420 this week!

Gamma flip at $402.50 & lots of open interest for puts between $390-410 overall the next few weeks!

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

$SPY has significant negative gamma at nodes $730,715 & 700 from May 29-June 18th and positive gamma at and above $740.

Gamma is mostly neutral between $731-739 overall, so expect some more chop in this range before price breaks above or below the $730-740 range for good.

I am currently positioned for a breakdown below $730.

Will add to the position if price is rejected above $740 & shows weakness over the next few sessions.

Will reduce the position size if price does not hold below $730 for more than 2 sessions this month.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

There’s a lot of open interest for $SPY at $730,715,700 over the next month.

Price will move very quickly if it gets below $730, so a dip to $720 would be a conservative target.

A pullback to or below $700 seems more likely - one more opportunity for institutions to load up on shares before the next leg higher this year.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

$8 coffees
$15 sandwiches
$1000 for new car payments
Thousands on vacations a few times per year.

Living the dream but stuck in the 9-5.

The key to building wealth is to live a modest lifestyle & look for ways to reduce your monthly expenses.

Most financial guidelines recommend your housing & vehicle costs should be between 30-55% of your income.

Pay off your mortgage and vehicle loans early and your housing & transportation costs go down to 10-15% of your income.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

$NVDA price floor may be between $195-205, will find out in the next few weeks if there is any meaningful pullback.

Expect a test of $205-210 at minimum.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

$NVDA showing signs of distribution today with massive dark pool prints showing up.

Expect price to stay above $205 until the institutions are done selling.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

My key takeaways from $NVDA earnings:

They crushed revenue and EPS estimates as most expected.

Share buybacks & dividend increase - they are flush with cash and will buy shares during any meaningful price pullback.

No sales to China expected- limits long term growth potential.

[Leveraged Dopamine Fiend @RealBusinessInc]

$TSLA had 3 probes down to $390-397 hour range after hours today.

Will be watching for another move down to this range within the next few sessions if price doesn’t move and hold above $420 this week!