Carl Allen

Educator, Scientist.

Sports & Political Data Analyst.

Other social media: RealCarlAllen

📖 Book: *The Polls Weren't Wrong* out now

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

I fully expect DMs, EMs, etc to blow up in the next 48 hrs

If I don't respond, don't worry. I know who has supported my work and I won't lose sight of that

If you'd like to join me in developing a set of unified scientific standards for this field, my book is available in bio

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Michael_Liam4 @mattgrossmann Glad it resonated with you. Appreciate the kind words

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @queenbiscuit311 @DemNationalist You said "you are misrepresenting my claim"

"if you're contending this" doesn't misrepresent your claim

Admit you were wrong and apologize for accusing me of misrepresenting your claim.

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @queenbiscuit311 @DemNationalist You said "you are misrepresenting my claim"

"if you're contending this" doesn't misrepresent your claim

Admit you were wrong and apologize for accusing me of misrepresenting your claim.

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @queenbiscuit311 @DemNationalist Still no actual arguments

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @queenbiscuit311 @DemNationalist Not seeing any actual arguments here

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @queenbiscuit311 @DemNationalist Thanks for admitting you have no actual arguments against prediction markets

Only theoretical ones

Glad we could clarify your place here

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@EMIAGPOS @mattgrossmann "what people generally want to use polls for"

Is that how science works? The data means what people want to use it for?

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@RtRoach1986 @EMIAGPOS @mattgrossmann Got quiet

Glad you learned to keep your mouth shut

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@RtRoach1986 @EMIAGPOS @mattgrossmann No.

I'm talking specifically and exclusively in this context about pre-election political polls.

You're saying the election result is "literally the only value (these) polls try to measure"

If I prove you wrong will you admit you're wrong?

Direct and unqualified yes or no

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @DemNationalist @queenbiscuit311 No answer

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @DemNationalist @queenbiscuit311 And is there any way for people to respond to those manipulated odds?

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @queenbiscuit311 @DemNationalist It's theoretically possible for me to be the next senator elected in Ohio

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@TylerDinucci Can confirm

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

"Carl, have any positions to share? How confident are you?"

Vegas flights are booked and victory speeches written

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @queenbiscuit311 @DemNationalist Got it. You've been talking and made multiple statements you can't defend, which you now say are not your position

What's your position?

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @queenbiscuit311 @DemNationalist Got it.

So you've made multiple statements that you are now contending are not your actual position

Glad we could clarify exactly how pathetic you are

[cheep cheep @Salacious_BCrum]

@queenbiscuit311 @RealCarlAllen @DemNationalist Imagine this… a slow burn, over time

You don’t have to do it in the most obvious way possible

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @queenbiscuit311 @DemNationalist Is this your position or are you just imagining?

[cheep cheep @Salacious_BCrum]

@RealCarlAllen @queenbiscuit311 @DemNationalist Certainly there is no possible way to make line go up slowly mimicking a reasonable progression

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @queenbiscuit311 @DemNationalist If you're contending that this is the case and markets are manipulated this way -

Prove it.

Provide evidence, data, and sources.

If you can't, or refuse, you are conceding that you cannot defend your position

Go

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @queenbiscuit311 @DemNationalist "imagine this"

That's your only argument. Imaginary ones.

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

@Salacious_BCrum @DemNationalist @queenbiscuit311 "For 90-93% of Americans yes"

Got it

Thanks for admitting that you can't defend your claim

[Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen]

It's beautiful, isn't it?

A pollster bragging about how closely their poll margin matched the election margin

People like @NateSilver538 & @gelliottmorris complaining about herding

Oblivious to the fact they are the ones who popularized the invalid metric promoting herding 👌