Costef

osrs gamer Dad | temporary game mode addict | John 3:16

[Costef @RealCostef]

And that’s GG - I think the most progressed death to error so far?

Planked to blood moon for quest fight. Stood on wrong tile during jaguar, didn’t notice focusing step back, took 16-16-16 in ~6 ticks

Had a ton of fun, but not the mode for me long term.

[Costef @RealCostef]

@lone_gym Arguably trios are still competitive. Mistakes in duos are far more punishing, and a death is likely a wipe in many scenarios

They’re certainly not meta, but I wouldn’t call it trolling to do relaxed 3s

[Costef @RealCostef]

@XarovRs Would appreciate

Running with team of 4 nearly max gear irons, and we’re doing ok, like 19 min avg, but I’m not really sure where we’re losing time

Rooms feel about as good as we can get them

Bork-jelly-xarth

1 obli / 1 zeal - seems like we should be closer to ~16 mins

[Costef @RealCostef]

A lot of behavior can be explained by “the 4 hour life” and how it impacts people’s psychology

LindyMan is an interesting thinker, and a good follow.

[LindyMan @PaulSkallas]

Staying up late in the evening is still "you" time. Once you wake up in the morning you're back on company time.

The morning belongs to your job

The night belongs to you. People like staying up late. It makes them feel they have more time for themselves.

[Costef @RealCostef]

Fed may inadvertently collapse the economy, by strangling the tail of companies building out AI with higher rates…all in a futile effort to “fight inflation” which is primarily caused by decades of fiscal irresponsibility, not private credit expansion

Feels like stocks smell it

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Pretty much.

As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.

SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.

That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.

[Costef @RealCostef]

@OsrsF2PBots I think they really whiffed on the rewards here, which is a shame because the raid is really enjoyable

Looks like ~60% of purples are tome or rondache

TOA/cox distributions, except the items are basically useless

No armor set, and the most niche mega rare.

Zeal will carry

[Costef @RealCostef]

@FutureMcGuives Cancelling reignited was the end. Dont think they’re ever getting the critical mass of players back at this point

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America.

This will be the first of many.

[Brad Gerstner @altcap]

I commend Anthropic on their philanthropic commitments in lieu of a founder equity IPO grant. It is an extraordinary gift - but also understand concerns about foundation wealth concentration. Like Elon - I hope a meaningful portion of AI’s wealth is a direct dividend. 🇺🇸🤍🚀@InvestAmerica24 @TrumpAccounts

[Costef @RealCostef]

@OsrsF2PBots Lmfao

[Costef @RealCostef]

When BTC hits $1m, most will own it and not know that they do, and not think about it.

Likely implicitly in their 401k, via index funds, through balance sheets of public companies and weighted ownership of strategy, which will be one of the most valuable companies in the world.

[Mitchell Askew @MitchellAskew]

Bitcoin will hit $1,000,000 and most people you know will still call it a scam

[Costef @RealCostef]

@LawRuneLarry It’s such a shame, because the game is genuinely good. I thoroughly enjoyed the league. Probably spent 300 hours playing it

All they needed was a big influx of new players at once, excited to try it, and many of them would have certainly stuck

[Costef @RealCostef]

I agree but I’d phrase it differently:

Crypto has insane velocity, and requires constant reexamination of narratives and ability to change one’s mind quickly.

The skillset has, and should continue, to translate well into AI stocks

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

Think Crypto people have far more edge than they think trading AI names.

The market is not really based in reality, it's mostly narrative, psyop and momentum based. A lot of companies are totally devoid of realistic valuations.

AI is either real or it's not, and Crypto traders have cut their teeth on recursive money legos.

[Costef @RealCostef]

@EVScapeOfficial Random but - I kind of appreciate how openly you talk about the biz side of content creation

It’s interesting to get some perspective on how it all works

Keep chasing that bag big man

[Costef @RealCostef]

@lukeinstew MMOs don’t have linear declines. There is a critical mass of players required for the game to function

I don’t know what the number is, but RS has dipped below 10k during off peak hours several times.

The game could be functionally dead in 2-3 years

Gradually, then suddenly.

[Costef @RealCostef]

@ChristianHeiens We also subsidize all their defense spending

[Costef @RealCostef]

@RSab_c You don’t have to understand the answer to understand the outcome.

No reignited = no new inflow of players = game has sealed its fate

Despite all the positive updates, player count is still down year over year, same as it has been for 10 years.

[Costef @RealCostef]

I work with enterprise customers doing billions of dollars in revenue, who are still spending less than six figures a year on tokens.

Trust me, the revenue is there. It’s just locked behind value generation, which is getting closer.

[Omer Cheema @Omercheema]

Jukan,

I have no doubt that AI will change the world in unimaginable ways in the next two decades. Completely bullish on it.

But short term (2-3 years) is much more uncertain. Anything can happen.

Most plausable downside scenario: Whole semiconductor market is relying on the success of OpenAI and Anthropic. And the success means a trillion dollar revenue for these companies within 3 years. That means OpenAI and Anthropic cracking several markets beyond automatic coding and AI assistants. That's an extremely steep hill to climb.

Boomers might not be completely out of their mind. May be GenZ and Millenials are being naive. Time will tell.