James Chanos Trades

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[James Chanos Trades @RealJChanos]

Our favorite solar science project, $RUN, burned another $(620)M in cash in the 2Q, and guided down 2H expectations. 2Q EBITDA again did not cover interest expense. Complete joke.

[James Chanos Trades @RealJChanos]

So if that’s the case, why won’t $NVDA simply lease the chips out themselves…?! Lease them for 3-5 years, then sell them at residual value. https://t.co/PN44rUtMv4

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Elon Musk on $NVDA Rubin compute: “My best guess for monetization per watt would be somewhere between $30 and $50. This is just a guess, so take it as a guess.”

[James Chanos Trades @RealJChanos]

(2) $NVDA would earn 200-400% margin at those rates, over 3-5 years, versus 75% on a sale of the GPU.

[James Chanos Trades @RealJChanos]

At $100/month this is a $1.3B increase in $TSLA FSD revenues…over five years. After ten years on the market. https://t.co/C2v3wQDhn5

[Whole Mars Catalog @wholemars]

Tesla paid self-driving users over time

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

Now that FSD is proving to be less than a $2B annual business for Tesla after ten years, and Optimus has been pushed out(again), I see we are back to Robotaxi’s being a 10% of global GDP “opportunity”. The NeverEnding Story. $TSLA

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

$RUN

[James Chanos Trades @RealJChanos]

annual business for Tesla after ten years, and Optimus has been pushed out(again), I see we are back to Robotaxi’s being a 10% of global GDP “opportunity”. The NeverEnding Story. $TSLA

[James Chanos Trades @RealJChanos]

$RUN https://t.co/cmwpIIWbft

[Tim @cleanslaterun]

I used to sell Solar panels. It's 97% a scam.

You can go wake up and knock a door and make $10k in a day.

The end product for most folks is basically the homeowner signing a 25 year contract that replaces their current bill.

So for example:

Current electric bill: $100
Solar bill : $80

So they save "$20" a month and sign a financed system over 25 years that includes interest and something called a "dealer fee" which is 20% - 30% of the total financed amount.

Let's say they do save $20 a month..

#1. Most of these systems don't last after 10+ years due to manufacturer defects on the inverters.

#2. Panels deteriorate in terms of production after every single year.

#3. Most of the companies go bankrupt after a few years and don't service the panels leading the homeowners astray

#4. If a roof needs to be replaced it will cost $10,000's + of dollars to take the panels off and to put it back on.

#5. It adds little to no value to the home and causes so many issues in terms of selling the home..

#6....

Shall I go on?

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

A classic from Hank Blaustein, circa GFC…

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

Hard not to notice that without the $108M in regulatory credits they booked in the 2Q, $RIVN automotive gross margins were still NEGATIVE (14)%, roughly the same as the 1Q. Again selling stock to stay alive, shares o/s up 15% Y/Y. What happens in a recession here?

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

The privately-held legacy data center companies are now lining up to go public. $CSQR $DLR $EQIX

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

I love the focus on “ROIC” as they extend depreciation schedules. Also note the new emphasis on operating(off-balance sheet) vs finance leases. $MSFT

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

One company I follow has strenuously denied selling its loan originations to “affiliates” to book gains. But this item in the latest @WSJ story about Walter may turn out to be material.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

Insurance science project $LMND still losing money after eleven years despite a 61% Net Loss Ratio. Oh, and the CFO leaving (but will remain on Board).

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

I can only imagine what else is in these insurance portfolios if the owner of the Dodgers does not consider Dodgers Tickets LLC an “affiliate investment”. State insurance regulation is a joke in most states.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

Remind me if it’s good for the pure neoclouds when their suppliers ($AMD and $NVDA) decide to do the same thing via other DC builders. $CRWV $IREN $NBIS

[James Chanos Trades @RealJChanos]

So we are at the point in the cycle where $NVDA has to provide financing guarantees for roughly 2/3rds of the cost of the chips it is selling to the data center project…?! Lol, ok. https://t.co/c4tpS88ovY

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion in financing for a data center in Ohio.

Details include:

1. The guarantees from Nvidia would help OpenAI lease a 10GW project that SoftBank is developing in Ohio

2. In total, the project could cost more than $500 billion, the largest data center project ever announced

3. The power for the project is controlled by the US government and funded separately by Japan under a recent trade deal

4. Commerce Secretary Lutnick is reportedly involved in deciding who will get the power

The data center buildout just hit a whole new level.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

(2) And just so you have an idea how immense that figure is, it represents 135% of $NVDA’s total retained earnings.

[James Chanos Trades @RealJChanos]

And while I’ve got the $TSLA Peanut Gallery all riled up, how come no one is talking about this little bombshell dropped during the 2Q conf call…?! For years we were told that Tesla’s FSD development advantage was the billions of miles driven in their DB https://t.co/tW6Agf7PEH

[Joe Hansen @joehansen]

🚨 Elon Musk explained why Tesla cannot yet scale Cybercab deployments despite billions of FSD miles.

• New vehicle chassis requires its own driving data
• Temporary steering wheels and pedals used for validation
• Software must be calibrated to Cybercab dynamics
• Generalization across cities is progressing
• Once validated, Cybercab numbers can ramp quickly

Billions of miles on existing vehicles do not fully transfer to a purpose-built Robotaxi platform.

[James Chanos Trades @RealJChanos]

Who wants to explain to the Tesla Faithful why a $SPCX “purchase” of $TSLA in a share-swap is not bullish? https://t.co/HiyNGmAOSp

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

BREAKING: Odds Tesla and SpaceX merge within the next year skyrocket to 74% — a record high.