Real_Baseru

Financial Trader | Market Analyst | Growth Marketing Strategist | Business Inquiries: DM

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

@Adellbah Market shift is loading

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

Most traders just hopping into on-chain now are gonna get eaten alive.

The game is harder now than 2021 and 2024, and you need a real edge if you want sustainable profits.

I'm glad I spent the last year going deeper into AI because it's speeding up my research a lot and my execution is so much better now.

Need to keep finding ways to level up.

If mass retail really does come back you want to be prepared.

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

@Al_ameenX Add Value Brr

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

@Al_ameenX 😂😂

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

This week's biggest test is the US labour market.
JOLTS 1 Sept
Employment Report 4 Sept
The transmission is:
Jobs Fed expectations Yields DXY Capital Rotation Equities Gold BTC.
Don't just trade the headline. Follow the transmission.

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

September Market Outlook
September opens with a major repricing risk.
Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole message has lifted expectations for tighter Fed policy. Now the labour market must validate that shift.
Fed expectations yields DXY liquidity risk assets.

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

Bitcoin sits further along the transmission chain.
Recent ETF demand was strong, but Friday saw about $202M of spot ETF outflows, ending a nine-session inflow streak.
Now watch whether institutional demand returns as macro volatility rises.

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

This week's transmission map:
Jobs Fed expectations Treasury yields DXY Financial Conditions Capital Rotation Equities Gold BTC
Don't try to predict every asset independently.
Follow the shock from its origin and watch where the transmission confirms

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

Capital rotation is therefore the signal I would watch most closely.
Where is institutional capital moving as the Fed narrative changes?
Treasuries Equities Gold BTC
The destination of capital can reveal whether the market agrees with the macro headline.

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

This week's transmission map:
Jobs Fed expectations Treasury yields DXY Financial Conditions Capital Rotation Equities Gold BTC
Don't try to predict every asset independently.
Follow the shock from its origin and watch where the transmission confirms or break

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

Capital rotation is therefore the signal I would watch most closely.
Where is institutional capital moving as the Fed narrative changes?
Treasuries Equities Gold BTC
The destination of capital can reveal whether the market agrees with the macro headline.

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

Watch the Treasury market first.
The important signal isn't simply whether yields rise. It is whether short term yields and long term yields confirm each other.
A sharp rise in front end yields with weaker long end yields would tell a different story from a broad sell off in Tre.

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

Weekly market outlook
markets enter September with one question dominating the transmission chain:
Can the Fed's new hawkish repricing survive contact with the US labour market?
The answer could determine the direction of rates, DXY, equities, Gold and BTC.🧵

[Real_Baseru @Real_Baseru]

Friday's US Employment Report is the bigger test.
If hiring remains resilient, markets may price a higher probability of restrictive policy.
If employment weakens materially, the recent hawkish repricing could unwind.
That reaction will begin in bonds.