Diwakar Rana

A rational investor.

Views are personal and not recommendation.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

The government has shot itself in the foot. They should have gone slowly with the ethanol blending target, as was done with E20, which was gradually implemented.

As the war in Iran started, the government panicked and introduced E100 or E80, which was not prudent. They should also have consulted the automobile industry before announcing such targets and checked the impact on old vehicles.

Now the best thing to do is give people options for normal fuel (not 100 octane) with no or less blending.

Also, all the companies that have increased capacities with debt and no government incentive will be sweating at the moment.

[The Hindu @the_hindu]

Petrol pump owners claim that ethanol’s hygroscopic nature or affinity towards water is leading to contamination of their E20 stock during monsoons and in coastal areas since the existing underground storage tanks were designed for conventional petrol, not higher ethanol blends. Three petrol pump owners shared their concerns over the roll out of E20 with 'The Hindu' speaking on condition of anonymity, as oil marketing companies have instructed them not to speak publicly on the issue.

✍ @jagritichandra

https://t.co/pEGsOP8W0Y

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

If a company is fairly priced, just keep buying. Don’t wait for the perfect market.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

Someone with a basic understanding of economics could have seen this two years ago. We saw IT companies and NBFCs building ethanol plants.

Wherever there are supernormal profits, everybody jumps in until there are no profits left. We saw the same thing in the power sector in the mid 2000s.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

@CNBCTV18Live Guess who doesn't want Oberoi Realty in the Gurugram market? Hint: both companies have three-letter names.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

My thoughts on the 2026 Iran war, Kharg Island risks, Strait of Hormuz crisis, US strikes, and deal negotiations (Apr–Jun timeline):

• https://t.co/gMpMXItS22 (MOU crumbling)

• https://t.co/O89fJBYQwO (Kharg Island boots-on-ground skepticism)

• https://t.co/hF3MVUeJ6T (No quick deal while bombing)

• https://t.co/pHGRjfqJMF (Attacks ongoing, low coverage)

• https://t.co/YP4h3zEW0Z (Bombs as predicted)

• https://t.co/bG8E25FkCD (No deal without major escalation)

• https://t.co/XKeY6pJJE4 (Global pressure needed on Hormuz)

• https://t.co/WaAiUzFRwJ (Pakistan mediation doubts)

• https://t.co/U1tgCZDpHx (Hormuz/Trump targeting)

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

Trump and the fake news keep saying the U.S. is very close to making a deal and signing an MOU with Iran.

Note that the Iran nuclear deal under Barack Obama, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), took roughly 2 to 3 years of serious negotiations to finalize.

How can Trump make a deal while continuing to bomb Iran?

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

@F_Compounders If you don’t have profits, use EBITDA. If you don’t have EBITDA, use sales. It’s simple.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

The CFO's response to a shareholder's question during the call.

Now he has resigned from the company.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

A company struggling due to industry headwinds or internal challenges is still far better than a company that keeps misleading investors while continuously raising capital. It is these companies that end up destroying the most investor wealth.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

Beware of brokers. They will sell you a story that has already played out, simply because a big block of shares is available for sale. Nobody wants to sell a growing and compelling business unless they are closing the fund or an old PE investor is exiting.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

The SME space is filled with garbage companies. Instead of building their business, they are busy selling their stock. Many of them spend more money and time on investor relations than on actually running the company. Even ₹60–70 crore market cap companies, trading as penny stocks, have hired investor relations firms that keep chasing prospective investors.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

Good step. But we also need promoters who are barred or penalized by SEBI for serious corporate governance issues, like in the recent SEBI order, to be stopped from becoming directors or promoters in other companies or starting new companies.

Promoters are evolving and finding new ways to siphon funds and manipulate the books, but the lawmakers are not evolving with them.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

A Big Boost for the Infrastructure Sector is on the Way

NHAI has reduced its debt from ₹3.5 trillion in FY22 to ₹2 trillion in FY26. With a healthy balance sheet, similar to the period when it awarded a record number of projects and a ₹1.52 trillion project pipeline, NHAI is well positioned for a strong pickup in project awarding in the coming years.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

Indian consumers are smart. They know they won't get any benefit from buying a flex-fuel car. First, it is more expensive, and second, it gives lower mileage.

Even if ethanol fuel is priced below regular fuel, ethanol-powered cars offer no economic advantage over a normal petrol or diesel car.

At the end of the day, consumers don't get any benefit. Only the government benefits through a lower forex bill.

https://t.co/SVNzILEM6j

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

All because of the package of measures announced by the government on 5 June, including the abolition of capital gains tax on G-Secs.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

What happened to the investment thesis of silver having huge industrial use in chips, solar, EVs, and AI electronics?

[MarineTraffic @MarineTraffic]

Strait of Hormuz crossings nearly triple week-on-week

Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz has rebounded sharply across two consecutive weekends, pointing to a clear shift in traffic patterns through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.

According to #MarineTraffic data and Kpler data, confirmed crossings rose from 32 vessels between 12–14 June to 93 vessels between 19–21 June, an increase of 61 crossings week-on-week. The sharpest change came on Saturday, when crossings jumped from 3 to 42 compared with the previous weekend. The recovery has been supported by recent diplomatic developments and a temporary OFAC general license, which has helped ease immediate compliance uncertainty around approved Hormuz transits until 21 August.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

Japan joins the AI race with Sakana Fugu, a multi-agent system claiming top-tier performance like Fable 5 and Mythos.

India now has one more market to worry about after South Korea.

More competition for FII flows & tech capital.

[Sakana AI @SakanaAILabs]

Introducing Sakana Fugu: A full multi-agent orchestration system accessible via a single model API.

Our ‘Fugu Ultra’ model matches the performance of Fable and Mythos, delivering frontier capability without the risk of export controls.

Try it: https://t.co/hhO6qTawgb 🐡

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

Crude down. Rupee strong. FII selling easing.
Exactly what investors were waiting for...but there’s ALWAYS something new to worry about.

Now the market is worried about a delayed monsoon, something nobody was even thinking about a month ago.

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

To make money in stocks, you must have the vision to see them, the courage to buy them, and the patience to hold them. Patience is the rarest of the three.

-Thomas W. Phelps

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

@sidhant It is because of Israel attack on Lebanon.

https://t.co/dObfqWgSAx

[Diwakar Rana @Realdiwakar]

The MOU is already crumbling on its first day. Israel attacked southern Lebanon after both the US and Iran signed it.

It is worth noting that Israel is up for election in October this year and Netanyahu’s ratings are already falling after the MOU is signed. The public is accusing him of excessive dependence on Washington.

To remain in power, Netanyahu’s interest will likely be in continuing to bomb Lebanon, if not Iran.