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What to expect from U.S. home prices in 2024, as told by 15 different forecast models
The average forecast tracked by @ResidentialClub expects U.S. home prices to rise +2.2% in 2024
Last month that figure was +0.8%
https://t.co/GDw2AyCRtl
At one point, Matthew McConaughey had his acting career, his family, a foundation, a film production company, and a record company.
In 2008, he shut down the production company and the record label.
"I was making B’s in 5 things," he said. "I want to make A's in three things."
By shutting down the production company and the music label, McConaughey said, "I did start making much better grades, so to speak, in those 3 things."
“Alright, alright, alright.”
Takeaway 1:
“If you seek tranquillity,” the philosopher King Marcus Aurelius wrote, “do less.”
And then he points out that doing less "brings a double satisfaction."
You get the satisfaction of having fewer things on your to-do list. And you get the satisfaction of doing those fewer things at a higher level.
You get "to do less, better."
Takeaway 2:
Shutting down the production company and the music label, McConaughey said, was hard to do. He liked having a production company and a music label.
It reminds me of the legendary Apple designer Jony Ive's definition of focus:
“What focus means is saying no to something that you—with every bone in your body—think is a phenomenal idea, and you wake up thinking about it, but you say no to it because you’re focusing on something else.”
Focus requires sacrifice. Making A's, so to speak, requires saying no to things you like and want to do because you’re saying yes to things you love and have to do.
- - -
"You gain more by finding a rich mine and mining it deeper, than by flitting from one shallow mine to another—intensity defeats extensity every time...As Schopenhauer wrote, 'Intellect is a magnitude of intensity, not a magnitude of extensity.'" — Robert Greene
Follow @bpoppenheimer for more content like this!
Home Sales UP.📈
Mortgage Applications DOWN.📉
Mortgage Apps tend to "lead" Housing Market by 1-2 months.
So the current uptick in home sales unlikely to last long.
Sources: NAR / MBA
Meanwhile active inventory continues to fall.
Down 1.5% this week to 436k single family homes on the market.
Very few sellers + modest buyer demand = falling inventory
2/6
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly report noted a nearly 30% increase in mortgage applications. Up from the week before. This data indicates buyers are coming off the fence and getting back in the market.
Home Searches are up and mortgage applications are increasing. The latest data shows the 2023 housing market is off to a strong start. Online searches and tour requests are up according to a recent Redfin report.
The problem with this is that when rates spike up too fast, a tradtional seller that sells to buy another home might not be as motivated to do so in a year where rates go from 3% to 7.37%, which is a double negative for housing.
So what will January have in store for us? So far more notable drops in inventory, combined with an increase in purchase applications. Spring will be the key to finding out if we will see relief. Otherwise this will be a huge factor in why prices remain stable in 2023.
A significant part of the housing outlook in 2023 is going to be inventory. Especially here in Southern California. In San Bernardino County We saw a massive decline in TOTAL inventory from June of 2022 through December 2022. From nearly 21k units to around 4500 units.
So let’s refine inventory to just NEW listings. We see seasonality to the increase and decrease of available inventory. However there is still a noticeable decrease in inventory. Meaning some sellers are choosing to stay out of the market. Squeezing an already tight supply.
Since peaking in June 2022, U.S. home prices have fallen 2.4%. That puts us just below April 2022 levels
IF U.S. home prices fall 10% peak-to-trough, it'd take prices back to Oct. 2021 levels
IF U.S. home prices fall 20% peak-to-trough, it'd take prices back to Feb. 2021 levels
Just Sold! Although things have slowed down in today’s real estate market, homes are still moving.
Today’s sellers are having to consider concessions like rate buy downs, to preserve their equity and get creative.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling let’s talk
@MDeanVincent@CARgovaffairs@CAREALTORS@CaliforniaBIA How many Realtors know the association is donating to a candidate they helped recall. Does the association ask the Realtors they purport to represent if this is what they want?