US housing demand has collapsed.
US new home sales fell -10.5% MoM in July, to 607,000 units, the lowest in 6 months and far worse than the -1.4% decline expected.
Excluding January 2026, this is the lowest level since November 2022.
New home sales have now fallen in 3 of the last 4 months and are down -6.3% YoY.
The Midwest was hit hardest, with sales plunging -42.7% MoM, to 43,000, the lowest level since 2012.
At the same time, sales in the South, the nation's biggest homebuying region, accounting for more than 60% of the total, fell -13.0% to 383,000, the 2nd-lowest level since January.
This comes as the 30Y mortgage rate hit 6.81%, its highest since August 2025, weighing on homebuyer demand.
The housing market is historically unaffordable right now.
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The U.S. is now in the longest homebuyer recession in history.
Pending home sales fell another 2.3% in July and are now 33% below pre-pandemic norms. And down 40% from pandemic peak.
Contract signings have remained depressed for longer than during the entire 2008-2011 housing downturn.
And now mortgage applications are rolling over again.
This suggests the next 3-4 months could bring some of the weakest home sales of this entire cycle.
For sellers, that means more competition and potentially aggressive price cuts heading into Fall.
Prepare yourself with forecasts for your ZIP at https://t.co/JdxIIbvrrO
One of the biggest housing supply explosions in the U.S. is happening in Florida.
And itโs just north of Tampa.
In Pasco County, inventory has spiked 145% since 2023, hitting its highest level in a decade.
And now prices are starting to crack.
Home values are already down 6.9% from the mid-2022 peak.
Nearly 3,900 homes are now for sale, compared with about 1,600 three years ago, covering fast-growing cities like Wesley Chapel, Zephyrhills, and New Port Richey.
This area was one of America's biggest boomtowns during the pandemic, and now it's turning into one of America's fastest corrections.
Reventure is forecasting further price declines in Pasco County into 2027 as excess inventory continues weighing on the market.
See where prices are heading in your ZIP code:
https://t.co/zlKe213GxR
๐บ๐ธ The Disney Airbnb gold rush flipped into a full inventory dump.
Reunion Resort alone is sitting on 900+ homes for sale, months and months of supply.
Those big luxury villas that were supposed to print money are now getting chopped in price as investors race for the exits.
What looked like a forever cash machine near the parks is turning into a buyerโs market overnight.
Source: Daily Dot, @SMB_Attorney / Writer: Lucas