โก๏ธAmerica rebuilt energy leverage without the public fully noticing.
That is the point.
For decades, the U.S. strategic posture was built around energy vulnerability.
Protect Gulf shipping. Manage Saudi relations. Police sea lanes. Fear oil shocks. Treat Middle East instability as a direct threat to domestic economic stability.
That world has changed.
If the U.S. is now the largest exporter, the whole geopolitical equation bends. America is no longer merely the consumer at the mercy of OPEC. It is a producer, exporter, price-setter, logistics actor, sanctions enforcer, and crisis stabilizer.
That is why the Hormuz story matters. The reason oil did not go to $200 was not because the shock was fake. It was because the global system now has buffers that did not exist in the old 1970s-style framework. U.S. output and export capacity are part of that buffer.
American shale quietly broke the old Saudi psychological monopoly.
Saudi Arabia still matters enormously. OPEC still matters. Spare capacity still matters. Gulf routes still matter. But the old image of Saudi Arabia as the central oil kingmaker is weaker. The U.S. now has enough production, infrastructure, and export scale to shape global price dynamics directly.
That is a regime shift.
But here is the part ordinary people hate: this does not mean cheap gasoline at home.
Oil is globally priced. U.S. barrels move into world markets. Refineries are configured for specific crude grades. Products trade globally. Export arbitrage links domestic supply to foreign demand. Companies sell where margins are best. The U.S. consumer does not get automatic first claim on cheap molecules just because the molecules came from American ground.
Energy independence does not mean consumer insulation. It means state-level leverage and corporate export power.
So when people ask, โWhy is gas still expensive?โ the answer is: because the U.S. built an export machine, not a domestic cheap-fuel guarantee.
The state gains leverage.
Energy companies gain markets.
Consumers remain exposed to global pricing.
That is the structure.
It can't be good for the left when anger against their cherished policies is driven by video and bodycam of its fulfillment. The spear has been driven in and the pain inevitably follows. The uncontrolled admission of questionable 'migrants' is a time bomb that threatens to create extensive damage and bring about the very hatred it purported to abolish.
The worst of it is that the real conscious culpability for the unfolding tragedy lies less with the migrants who form the tip of the battering ram than with the sinewy white liberal arms who are driving it against the gates of the civilization they deliberately wish to destroy.
https://t.co/fgF3vjFCIo
In May, 67% of vessels not involved in Iranian trade passing through the strait turned their AIS off ... to make it harder for Iran to identify, target or attack them. Experts expect the practice to continue with AIS dark transits likely to remain the norm, while threat levels stay elevated.
My comment: the US is gradually nullifying Iran's 'blockade' of Hormuz while its own blockade of Iran's ships continues to work. It's a 'ceasefire' the administration can live with.
https://t.co/8ZEjIcGd3O
The peculiar thing about social unrest is that is rarely explainable by the proximate cause. Most of the relevant information is in the context upon which the proximate cause acts as a detonator. It is the cumulative facts that drive the crisis; and the left in their smugness cannot see it.
Nevertheless a **thing** comes into existence which they neither acknowledge nor understand but which all the same is unleashed upon current events.
https://t.co/uZQ8oIZFRQ
The message of a protest is "we don't like this".
The message of a riot is "we don't like this, and we're able to do something about it".
People who unconditionally call for peace and calm, regardless of the provocation, don't fundamentally understand how politics works in the real world.
They do understand that the purpose of politics is to provide an alternative to violence, but that's as far as their understanding goes. They don't think through the implications, usually because they are quite comfortable with things as they are.
If politics is an alternative to violence, then politics is a proxy for violence.
And that means you have to dole out power in proportion to capacity for violence. Or someone's going to figure out they can do better by flipping the table.
Monarchy wasn't replaced by democracy because of fine-sounding philosophical ideals and eloquent documents declaring this or that.
Democracy happened because if you added rifling to the flintlock firearm, suddenly a individual farmer with a tube was the pinnacle of military technology, and now you had to keep all the farmers with tubes happy by giving them political power.
(Ancient Greek democracy had a similar relationship with the hoplite warrior.)
When political systems work well, for a while, the violence they represent becomes further and further from people's minds, and those who can't effectively commit or direct violence worm their way into power, and begin to take it away from those who can.
And they'll defend their position by saying that violence is unthinkable, barbaric, always bad, must be disavowed at all costs, etc.
This isn't some sort of high-minded principle on their part. It simply means one of two things. Either "the status quo works for me, so I don't want you to upset it", or "I suck at violence, and I don't want to have to fight".
They want young men demoralized, so that their artificial meritocracy of spreadsheets, or their non-meritocracy of patronage networks, can be protected from the natural meritocracy of conflict.
This means that riots aren't actually for achieving any specific material aim. They are for reminding the comfortable that judges and bureaucrats and policemen have home addresses and families. And that violence is always on the table.
A protest would only send the message that the Irish don't want to be ethnically cleansed. But the bureaucrats and judges and lawyers already know that. They just don't care.
A riot reminds them that they have to care, because the Irish have a long tradition of doing something about it.
1. Okay @RealCandaceO , you want to go there. Cool. Here's a thread on the reality of Russia from the perspective of an ordinarily invisible American.
I first travelled to Russia in 2024 because I wanted to see for myself what it was about, with specific focus on the sanction regime and how it was impacting life for an ordinary Russian.
I revisited twice since then, just to ensure my understanding was not misplaced.
What I write below is not from a guided tour, not from an organized visit through contact with anyone of significance in Russia.
This is simply an American who figures out a way how to get a visa when it was exceptionally complicated during the Biden administration and returned twice thereafter - the latter when Trump took office.
Warning to readers. This will be a long thread, because I will take you on the full journey - beginning in 2024.
@boriquagato They have to get to the Sign of the Four observation: "Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth".
@thedarkhorsepod You can hold the people responsible for creating the confusion responsible. Give them the burden of proof to show it's fair. Their show, their moneys.
@AwakenedOutlaw
Check this out: https://t.co/fstX9IWNOj just heard it on the news as I drove to the park-and-ride this morning. Check out the feed at 6:40 onward for a new method to measure CTE while the person is living.
@AwakenedOutlaw Check this out: https://t.co/ezK1tu8DAD
I just heard it on the news as I drove to the park-and-ride this morning. Check out the feed at 6:40 onward for a new method to measure CTE while the person is living.