SouthSeaxe

Southerner. Vehemently anti ethnos.

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

Seats @RestoreBritain have handed to the uniparty:

Guston, Kingsdown & St Margaret's-at-Cliffe (Greens)
Claremont (Labour)
Amble (Labour)
Kilburn, Denby, Holbrook & Horsley (Greens)
🚨 NEW: Shepshed (Labour)

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@SarahCLesadd I think the director of comms was talking about you with those comments...

[Alan Mendoza @alanmendoza]

Fantastic old-school methodological investigation by Raheem. Facts matter. Just proof that when something looks too good to be true, it almost always is.

[Joe 🇬🇧 🩵 Reform UK @Verbal_Vortex]

The polling behind Restore Britain has officially imploded.

Raheem spotted the flaws, went to the pollster, and they corrected the data immediately.👏

The new numbers:
❌ ZERO seats where Restore Britain leads the right. 📈 +25 seats handed straight to Reform nationally.

Rupert has played his own members for fools. Total cockalorum.

[Dylan @dylan04gla]

Electoral Calculus have published a correction to their original results (RB was not included in tactical vote changes). The actual results are:

Reform: ahead in 44 seats
Tories: ahead in 13 seats
Restore: ahead in 0 seats

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@BasilTheGreat Awkward...

[Raheem J. Kassam @RaheemKassam]

On Thursday morning, @RestoreBritain founder @RupertLowe10 tweeted: “This is important - the latest huge MRP poll has Restore Britain ahead in more Scottish constituencies than both Reform or the Tories.”

The data he cited envisaged a hypothetical tactical voting scenario in a giant MRP poll issued by FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus.

It showed that in a world where voters pick tactically (the long explainer for that here, for the nerds like me), Restore Britain would finish ahead of other “parties on the right” in 21 Scottish seats, with the Tories finishing top of this trio in 13, and Reform finishing top in just 12. Eleven of them, it claimed, would be tied.

He concluded: “This is remarkable. Restore Britain is now the second largest party in Scotland, and the largest party on the right - bigger than both Reform and the Tories.”

Indeed it would have been remarkable. If only it were true.

My analysis of the poll over hours on Thursday morning led me to realise there was a methodological inconsistency.

I found that although the tactical-voting calculations appeared to affect support for other parties, they actually incorrectly left Restore’s share in every constituency exactly as it was prior to tactical voting.

So I shared my findings with the pollster and the immediately corrected their data. The result? ZERO seats where Restore Britain finishes "top of the parties on the right" AND more crucially, it now hands Reform an extra 25 seats nationally.

My full tear down and explainer of this are at my Substack, linked in the first reply below.

You have no idea how much time and brain power it took to go through reams of data to understand what went wrong here for the pollster.

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@RupertLowe10 Electoral Calculus fixed their flawed results. You're now down to 6% and no longer the most popular right in *any* seat...

[Raheem J. Kassam @RaheemKassam]

On Thursday morning, @RestoreBritain founder @RupertLowe10 tweeted: “This is important - the latest huge MRP poll has Restore Britain ahead in more Scottish constituencies than both Reform or the Tories.”

The data he cited envisaged a hypothetical tactical voting scenario in a giant MRP poll issued by FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus.

It showed that in a world where voters pick tactically (the long explainer for that here, for the nerds like me), Restore Britain would finish ahead of other “parties on the right” in 21 Scottish seats, with the Tories finishing top of this trio in 13, and Reform finishing top in just 12. Eleven of them, it claimed, would be tied.

He concluded: “This is remarkable. Restore Britain is now the second largest party in Scotland, and the largest party on the right - bigger than both Reform and the Tories.”

Indeed it would have been remarkable. If only it were true.

My analysis of the poll over hours on Thursday morning led me to realise there was a methodological inconsistency.

I found that although the tactical-voting calculations appeared to affect support for other parties, they actually incorrectly left Restore’s share in every constituency exactly as it was prior to tactical voting.

So I shared my findings with the pollster and the immediately corrected their data. The result? ZERO seats where Restore Britain finishes "top of the parties on the right" AND more crucially, it now hands Reform an extra 25 seats nationally.

My full tear down and explainer of this are at my Substack, linked in the first reply below.

You have no idea how much time and brain power it took to go through reams of data to understand what went wrong here for the pollster.

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@RupertLowe10 Electoral Calculus fixed their flawed results. You're now down to 6% and no longer the most popular right in *any* seat...

[Raheem J. Kassam @RaheemKassam]

On Thursday morning, @RestoreBritain founder @RupertLowe10 tweeted: “This is important - the latest huge MRP poll has Restore Britain ahead in more Scottish constituencies than both Reform or the Tories.”

The data he cited envisaged a hypothetical tactical voting scenario in a giant MRP poll issued by FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus.

It showed that in a world where voters pick tactically (the long explainer for that here, for the nerds like me), Restore Britain would finish ahead of other “parties on the right” in 21 Scottish seats, with the Tories finishing top of this trio in 13, and Reform finishing top in just 12. Eleven of them, it claimed, would be tied.

He concluded: “This is remarkable. Restore Britain is now the second largest party in Scotland, and the largest party on the right - bigger than both Reform and the Tories.”

Indeed it would have been remarkable. If only it were true.

My analysis of the poll over hours on Thursday morning led me to realise there was a methodological inconsistency.

I found that although the tactical-voting calculations appeared to affect support for other parties, they actually incorrectly left Restore’s share in every constituency exactly as it was prior to tactical voting.

So I shared my findings with the pollster and the immediately corrected their data. The result? ZERO seats where Restore Britain finishes "top of the parties on the right" AND more crucially, it now hands Reform an extra 25 seats nationally.

My full tear down and explainer of this are at my Substack, linked in the first reply below.

You have no idea how much time and brain power it took to go through reams of data to understand what went wrong here for the pollster.

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@RestoreBritain Electoral Calculus fixed their flawed results. You're now down to 6% and no longer the most popular right in *any* seat...

https://t.co/4FBQ8mTduK

[Raheem J. Kassam @RaheemKassam]

On Thursday morning, @RestoreBritain founder @RupertLowe10 tweeted: “This is important - the latest huge MRP poll has Restore Britain ahead in more Scottish constituencies than both Reform or the Tories.”

The data he cited envisaged a hypothetical tactical voting scenario in a giant MRP poll issued by FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus.

It showed that in a world where voters pick tactically (the long explainer for that here, for the nerds like me), Restore Britain would finish ahead of other “parties on the right” in 21 Scottish seats, with the Tories finishing top of this trio in 13, and Reform finishing top in just 12. Eleven of them, it claimed, would be tied.

He concluded: “This is remarkable. Restore Britain is now the second largest party in Scotland, and the largest party on the right - bigger than both Reform and the Tories.”

Indeed it would have been remarkable. If only it were true.

My analysis of the poll over hours on Thursday morning led me to realise there was a methodological inconsistency.

I found that although the tactical-voting calculations appeared to affect support for other parties, they actually incorrectly left Restore’s share in every constituency exactly as it was prior to tactical voting.

So I shared my findings with the pollster and the immediately corrected their data. The result? ZERO seats where Restore Britain finishes "top of the parties on the right" AND more crucially, it now hands Reform an extra 25 seats nationally.

My full tear down and explainer of this are at my Substack, linked in the first reply below.

You have no idea how much time and brain power it took to go through reams of data to understand what went wrong here for the pollster.

[Raheem J. Kassam @RaheemKassam]

On Thursday morning, @RestoreBritain founder @RupertLowe10 tweeted: “This is important - the latest huge MRP poll has Restore Britain ahead in more Scottish constituencies than both Reform or the Tories.”

The data he cited envisaged a hypothetical tactical voting scenario in a giant MRP poll issued by FindOutNow and Electoral Calculus.

It showed that in a world where voters pick tactically (the long explainer for that here, for the nerds like me), Restore Britain would finish ahead of other “parties on the right” in 21 Scottish seats, with the Tories finishing top of this trio in 13, and Reform finishing top in just 12. Eleven of them, it claimed, would be tied.

He concluded: “This is remarkable. Restore Britain is now the second largest party in Scotland, and the largest party on the right - bigger than both Reform and the Tories.”

Indeed it would have been remarkable. If only it were true.

My analysis of the poll over hours on Thursday morning led me to realise there was a methodological inconsistency.

I found that although the tactical-voting calculations appeared to affect support for other parties, they actually incorrectly left Restore’s share in every constituency exactly as it was prior to tactical voting.

So I shared my findings with the pollster and the immediately corrected their data. The result? ZERO seats where Restore Britain finishes "top of the parties on the right" AND more crucially, it now hands Reform an extra 25 seats nationally.

My full tear down and explainer of this are at my Substack, linked in the first reply below.

You have no idea how much time and brain power it took to go through reams of data to understand what went wrong here for the pollster.

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

How could the vetting have missed this @CCHQPress?

[UK Dispatch @UKDispatch_]

NEW🚨: A Former Conservative Peterborough councillor accused of sexually assaulting a teenage boy took him to "private parties" attended by other local politicians, a court has heard.

https://t.co/hZSjyvEcXQ

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@UKDispatch_ How could the vetting have missed this @CCHQPress?

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@DamonDewdney ...yet you still haven't come close to winning a local by-election...

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@RestoreBritain This is like when you guys bigged up being favourites to win Makerfield, then ended up coming nowhere near second place...

[Raheem J. Kassam @RaheemKassam]

ITV spent *a year* undercover in Reform.

They forged documents, they broke election law, they filmed HUNDREDS of hours of footage, and had access to ALL senior staff AND all documentation.

They came out of it all with a few creepy councillors (former Tories) and a short clip of Nigel Farage making fun of the attacks on him.

What an abject failure 🤣

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@CharlieSimpsonA If it's true then you don't have anything to worry about...

...but you don't have a good record on publishing the truth so you should probably worry.

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@RupertLowe10 You haven't even come close to winning a single council by-elevtion yet...

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@EdwardOakenfull Hands Labour a majority.

Burnham is laughing at you.

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@empire_res66190 Labour and the Tories. They're the only one's laughing.

The MRP poll out today shows that Restore are on track to hand Labour a majority next election.

[SouthSeaxe @ReformChecked]

@LinPau22 You got 64 votes.