$BTC
Here are your monthly profiles overall well balanced we have some poor lows on the current month so would watch for structure above 65.8k for any shorts
Early in the month we tend to trend the first week before setting the range marked out some weekly value areas for bias
The State of Crypto (August 2 2026)
I've been trading crypto and active on crypto twitter since 2017. This morning I went through my following list and saw many accounts went dark without a good bye or any type of conclusion to their journey. The common denominator I saw was expectations of $BTC reclaiming 100K and moving to new all time highs, something I've been personally vocal against for a long time now. Here we are nearly a year later and things only look worse. Many have given up.
It's important to remember that crypto is just another vehicle to make money.. like stocks, commodities, forex, etc. Crypto has other use cases as well, but those don't make the price go up. People's desire to make money coupled with mass attention is what makes the price go up. And it's currently difficult for crypto to garner attention because AI stocks trade with the volatility of altcoins, so all of the attention is on them. And with stocks, there's no VPN required, no bridging required. There's no need to understand addresses or wallets or anything to prevent people from buying. With stocks, you open your phone and you're buying within minutes. So why would market participants jump through so many hoops just to trade inferior assets? And one of the greatest allures of stocks is that you can be wrong on your trade, but know that you're still holding a great company. When you're wrong with crypto, you're typically holding vapor that trends to zero.
With all those negatives said, the crypto community is still very strong, no doubt. A lot of us grew up here and witnessed people go from nothing to "making it" within this space. But I'd argue that current conditions are difficult and you truly need a high level of skill and a repeatable edge to be profitable. This is different than past years. Before 2017 you could throw shit at the wall in crypto and become a millionaire. Then you had the COVID bull run and all the cycles it brought. Altcoins, NFTs, memes.. you simply didn't need a high level of skill to be profitable during these times. But times have changed.
The reality is you're late to the party by now. Crypto controlled the mainstream for years until AI recently took over. Saylor came, the ETFs came, EVERYBODY already came and prices peaked. That's in the past now and what you're currently left with is a #Bitcoin that is basically less volatile than the S&P 500. Crypto majors are slowly bleeding and even the memes within crypto are eclipsed by the volatility of semi-conductor stocks on a daily basis. Even crypto exchanges saw the writing on the wall in 2026 as they all started implementing equities onto their platforms. Tether invests in gold rather than crypto. From financial products to investments, even crypto natives are shifting away from crypto.
So where is the silver lining? It's truly difficult to see one right now. Crypto has essentially become the new forex. It's a niche sector of tradable assets filled with market participants who didn't move on to the new exciting game in town (AI). Trump used crypto to enrich his family, friends, and businesses and sends a once monthly headline about America being #1 in crypto that comes across more like a paid tweet than intention for genuine progress. Saylor is down $10+ billion over a period where the S&P 500 has tripled along with every other asset in the world, from housing to fruit to toilet paper. He was just approved to sell 5 billion worth of Bitcoin here at $63,000 per coin after his endless buying spree at over $100,000 per coin. He's more pompous and arrogant than intelligent and has zero ability to execute well timed Bitcoin purchases. It's beyond laughable to think that Strategy is going to engage in "active capital management" moving forward. Saylor is now a sideliner hoping the market saves him while begging for the Clarity Act to be passed on Twitter. Tom Lee casts a dark shadow over $ETH, a fool no different than Saylor. $SOL is priced best to be bought back up if the masses return, but it just distributed for two years and recently broke down. $HYPE could have been the golden goose that escaped the crypto ecosystem but talks of KYC and regulation have stifled its bull run. No different than how Binance and BitMex gave users to Bybit and then Bybit gave its users to Blofin. Regulation slowly kills exchanges.
The true silver lining is knowing that the trading skills you've spent years developing in crypto can be applied to other markets as well. And if you were a flash in the pan, then I hope you retired off of your niche cycle because those were likely once in a lifetime opportunities.
With all this said, I genuinely do hope there is a catalyst that allows crypto to flourish once again, even if it never reaches its former peak. And while I can envision lower prices, I have to think that we're near max pain when it comes to volatility and trading opportunity. I have to imagine that price action gets better going into the end of the year and beyond. A deep move lower could partially remove Saylor from the market and we could have a run, a run that both spot buyers and traders alike could enjoy. I think a logical bounce / bull case for Bitcoin could put us back near $100,000, in which we would need to see prices at $50,000 or less to aim for a 2x. For altcoins like ETH and SOL, I presume they will simply follow Bitcoin. HYPE could still outperform if it's not regulated to death and I'm sure some memes can run in between. My last ten trades in a row have all been equity trades because that's where the volatility has been, but I truly hope that changes soon. I have nothing against crypto. In fact, I love crypto. It gave me a career and an audience and skills that I may not have developed otherwise. I'm nothing but thankful for crypto and I wish it was in a better state.
But the reality is that all good things do wind down. They don't fully die, but they're never what they once were. I can still play Counter Strike 1.6, which I absolutely lived for in my teenage years, but it's not the same. It's not a LAN party with the boys or scrimming for 14 hours straight on a Saturday. Pick your favorite pastime and you can still find others flourishing and enjoying life within the niche, but the golden years are behind us.
There's a lot of talk about crypto's return to glory lately, but everything grows older, and it may never look like it once did. And that's okay.
I have no dreams to sell you, this market is still fucked and likely the most painful part where people give up is incoming.
That's where the goldmine starts.
The Leopold Aschenbrenner story is wild
> Launch Situational Awareness LP with $225M
> Bet heavy on AI infrastructure
> Fund hits $45B in two years
> Ken Griffin in Citadel calls for a surprise rate hike he knew wasn't coming
> Market panics, AI trade collapses
> Leopold is 4X leveraged
> Gets margin called
> Forced to liquidate his entire book in one massive block and sell to a single buyer at cents on the dollar
That single buyer? Citadel
Absolutely ruthless
The perfect crime
$HYPE
HTF
Looks done for a while- would let price settle below sub 50 at the daily fvg before I look for longs. Best swing shorts at current monthly NPOC into 44$
Reversal and continuation setups attached
Tradermayne reveals that trading is nothing like social media makes it look.
"It's very boring, and it's very lonely. You're by yourself; it's a one-player game, and you are your own boss. You are your own performance manager."
Feat. @Tradermayne
I have been in this crypto world for 11 years, I traded $BTC at $300 on Bitmex, I mined $ETH with several AMD graphics cards, I have seen all rallies and dumps since 2015, I have been liquidated a thousand times, and I can assure you that when the MM sees that we are all seeing (including me) that the bottom is 42K, it will not happen, but there are only two possibilities, either liquidate everyone with a sweep at 35K or we stay out without going below 50K. We will see!