Joel

Master in Middle East foreign policy @shuDiplomacy • Responsible arms trade #SALW advocate • Former @ControlArms • Former #ArmsTradeTreaty

[Joel @RegulateArms]

America’s war has left the Islamic Republic more emboldened and more repressive. The Iranian people are worse off in every way.

How is the strategic position of the US better today than six months ago?

[Dan Shapiro @DanielBShapiro]

Until the text of the US-Iran deal is signed and released, there is going to be a lot of spin on both sides. But here is my initial take.

This war was a mistake, and it needs to end. The President thought that the Iranian regime would collapse quickly, but it did not. In fact, it has been strengthened strategically by its survival against a heavy US-Israeli assault and carrying out some effective counterstrikes. Many countries in the region are now courting Iran and looking to deescalate and rebuild ties. A sign of which way the wind is blowing.

Getting the Strait of Hormuz open is the most important outcome of this MOU. Of course, the Strait was open before the war. Now we are paying to reopen it with sanctions relief. Iran has taken a theoretical point of leverage and turned it into a very real and powerful one, imposing costs across the global economy and rattling President Trump.

As for the nuclear issues, there really is no agreement, other than to negotiate over the HEU stockpile and an enrichment moratorium. Iran knows how to drag out those negotiations, and try to pocket concessions along the way. It is possible that no deal will every be reached, and very likely that if one is reached, it will be worse than what we could have achieved through diplomacy before the war.

Iran is not likely to take seriously that the US would return to war, certainly before the US midterms. So that means we will be conducting diplomacy without a credible threat of force.

If any agreement ultimately reached actually safely puts Iran's nuclear ambitions out of reach, I'll acknowledge it. It's just too early to make that judgment.

Trump is mainly focused on comparing his deal favorably to the JCPOA. But we are a long way from being able to make that comparison, and it may end up no better, or weaker than that deal.

But in some ways, Trump's deal and the JCPOA are already similar. Nothing on ballistic missiles, nothing on proxies, nothing on weakening the regime or helping the Iranian people. And plenty of sanctions relief that will strengthen the regime, and be poured into the missile program and proxy network. Honest critics of the JCPOA will not twist themselves into pretzels to defend Trump's approach.

Israelis are deeply disappointed in this outcome, but they should not be surprised. After some initial overlap of Trump's and Netanyahu's interests, there was a strong divergence. The United States needed this war to end. Netanyahu wanted to continue.

Trump's claim to include Lebanon in the ceasefire and his harsh shutting down Israeli attacks on Hezbollah is also a win for Iran. After the JCPOA was signed, Obama and Netanyahu worked together to strengthen Israel's campaign of strikes in Syria to intercept Iranian weapons shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

So let's hope we see the removal of Iran's enriched uranium and a long-term suspension of enrichment, with full verification. But to achieve those goals, Trump's team is going to need to engage in far more sophisticated diplomacy, backed by qualified experts, than they have to date. If it is a phase one splash with no follow-up on implementation of later phases, like in Gaza, we will be much worse off after, and because of, this war.

[Ben Rhodes @brhodes]

This deal reopens a body of water that was open before the war and begins a nuclear negotiation far narrower than what Trump was seeking before the war. All at a staggering cost to the entire world while leaving an IRGC-led government that feels strengthened.

[Joel @RegulateArms]

If achieved, it would only take time for Pulte to become a de facto leader long enough that Trump would feel threatened; to become paranoid. People loyal to Pulte more so than Trump.

[Joel @RegulateArms]

Pulte could purge the intel community of what Trump doesnt want to hear --- as Genrikh Yagoda was by Josef Stalin, as Wilhelm Canaris did for Adolf Hitler.

History shows that replacing real intel analysts with ideological yes-men consistently leads to terrible decision-making.

[Alex Ward @alexbward]

President Trump said he wants Bill Pulte, his incoming acting director of national intelligence, to begin the process of firing a large number of employees as part of a shake-up of the U.S. intelligence community. https://t.co/1lBAx5bGp1

[Kellie Meyer @KellieMeyerNews]

Questions about going to the Knicks game: Trump tells Americans that can't afford tickets to watch it on television. "That's the way life goes," he says.

[TheSteadyState @steadystate2025]

Trump calls for a federal judge to be “brought up on charges” for ruling against him. Judge Christopher Cooper found Trump’s name was illegally added to the Kennedy Center. Trump’s response is to demand prosecution.

[Joel @RegulateArms]

Trump's attempt to loot the treasury and grant himself immunity for personal acts and IRS audits has run into trouble.

https://t.co/L1oNU4boZy

[Joel @RegulateArms]

Reza arguing for the creation of the League of Arab States (@arableague_gs)

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Reza Pahlavi:

If Europe can have its own union, why can't we have a union in the Middle East?

Why can't we cooperate on shared projects involving national security, intelligence, and even military cooperation?

Why should we spend so much of our budgets on weapons and arms races, instead of spending those resources on welfare, pension funds, healthcare, and education?

[Joel @RegulateArms]

A war crime under international law.

Destruction of a UNESCO World Heritage site violates the 1954 Hague Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict.

Israel's aim is deliberate targeting of history as a form of "cultural cleansing".

[Billy Carson II @4biddnKnowledge]

A 3,000-year-old piece of human history is gone. Israeli airstrikes have severely bombed and damaged the ancient, UNESCO World Heritage site in Tyre, Lebanon. 🚨 Irreplaceable Ancient History Destroyed in Tyre AirstrikesA catastrophic loss for global cultural heritage is unfolding in southern Lebanon. Intense Israeli bombardment targeting the coastal city of Tyre has directly struck and heavily damaged its world-renowned archaeological ruins, which date back over three millennia to the Phoenician and Roman empires.The ancient city of Tyre is a protected UNESCO World Heritage site, celebrated globally for its historic hippodrome, monumental triumphal arches, and ancient ruins. Historians, archaeologists, and cultural preservationists worldwide are expressing absolute horror and outrage, stating that the destruction of irreplaceable global heritage violates international treaties protecting cultural property during armed https://t.co/HfriGjHlBi smoke rises over the ancient ruins, international bodies are facing intense pressure to step in, condemn the strikes, and protect what remains of humanity's shared history before it is completely erased. 👇 Should destroying UNESCO World Heritage sites be classified as an international war crime? Share your thoughts below.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🚨Scoop: U.S. and Iran reach deal but need Trump's final approval, two U.S. officials and a regional source involved in the mediation efforts told me. My story on @axios
https://t.co/V8YwY6UY0X

[Joel @RegulateArms]

Threatening military action against another country — especially an ally — can destabilize negotiations and increase the risk of miscalculation.

Threatening the mediator between Iran and your own government in an ongoing war … irrational. Deranged.

https://t.co/aGHDSQTQuZ

[Zeina Khodr @ZeinakhodrAljaz]

Constant bombardment #Tyre #Lebanon - Israel army announces another soldier killed - Nabatiyeh area under heavy firepower

[Michael Kaplan @mkaplantv]

NEWS: 14 U.S. soldiers wounded in the Iran war are still recovering at Walter Reed.

President Trump visited troops yesterday during his medical visit - but not the 14 injured in the war he started.

w/ @JonahPKaplan, @kristincbrown, and @ellee_watson

https://t.co/u2siG8Slru

[Melanie D'Arrigo @DarrigoMelanie]

President Trump was convicted of fraud, and has pardoned over 70 people convicted of fraud.

[Nick Field @nick_field90]

Dana White has spoken at the last three Republican National Conventions:
https://t.co/ozj8JAwjjc

[Aaron David Miller @aarondmiller2]

The degree of Netanyahu's political dependency on Trump for his reelection is only surpassed by Israel's dependency on US for missile defense.

[Joel @RegulateArms]

The statement constitutes an overt attempt at bribery, wherein the administration explicitly offers Senators a portion of the $1.8 billion in misappropriated public funds in exchange for legislative interference.

[Andrew Desiderio @AndrewDesiderio]

NEWS — White House just sent this one-pager to Senate GOP offices on the $1.8B “weaponization” fund ahead of Blanche’s meeting with Senate R’s.

It says there are “no partisan restrictions” & Dems can apply too & that senators “whose records were secretly subpoenaed” can apply

[Joel @RegulateArms]

With the murder indictment of Cuban leader Raúl Castro, President Trump is applying the playbook he used to upend Venezuela’s leadership to force Havana’s Communist government into submission.

[Michelle Caruso-Cabrera @MCaruso_Cabrera]

The US indicted Raul Castro of Cuba. What comes next? A pleasure to speak with @SullyCNBC and @KellyCNBC on @CNBC 's Power Lunch to discuss.

[Joel @RegulateArms]

No president has ever used the federal government to advance his own personal interests and those of his family and allies as expansively and openly as Trump has.

https://t.co/zawgNPXjZC

[Ryan Nobles @ryanobles]

Major development.. The Senate has removed funding for the Trump ballroom from it's pending reconciliation package.