Relativerankings

Overly analytical footnall and basketball analysis from a Statistics PhD.

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

For reference the current model is a large graph neural network trained on historical data. It is specifically designed to make connections between any team in the nation. It can also use these to identify potential weak matchups for teams (aka pick out potential upsets).

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

Houston is our 2nd most likely team to win the tourney. They currently have the largest expected win margin by a large amount (5+ pts) however have 5 poor matchups:

UConn -4.3 pt dogs
Iowa State -3.1
Indiana State -2.3
Boise State -1.1
TCU -.4

#UConnMBB
#GoCoogs
#MarchOn

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

Believe it (or probably not), UConn currently has 2 non-favorable matchups (University of Nebraska (@HuskerMBB ) -3 & Saint Joseph's -2 (@SJUHawks_MBB). St. Joes likely won't get far enough to challenge UConn as we have them as slight dawgs in each A10 Tourney game.

#THWND

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

Washington State are our sneaky Final Four team (@WSUCougarsMBB). We have them as favorites against nearly every single D1 team besides:

Houston, UConn, Indiana State, Duke, FAU, Arizona & Texas Tech

This gives me the 4th most favorable matchups in the nation.

#MarchMadness

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

@_cochebomba @_GeoBasketball @basquetebolslb Definitely more common outside of the US because teams are used to differential being important. Running it up isn't as taboo

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

Georgian basketball clubs (@_GeoBasketball) return to international competition in 30 mins when TSU Tbilisi play Benfica (#BasketBenfica). Our model projects a 4 pt Benfica win despite being 18.5 favorites according to the bookies.

@basquetebolslb
#bettingtips

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

Huge Benfica win. The perils of a 5 year gap in relevant game data.

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

Newly promoted Saint-Quentin (@SQBB_Officiel) only down 4 at ht against Monaco (@ASMonaco_Basket )
in #BetclicELITE play. The gap between the French 1st and 2nd Division is the smallest in the world. Our model estimates their #PROB team last year would have finished 11/18th.

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

8. Oregon @oregonfootball -1.9
9. Michigan @UMichFootball -1.7
10. Charlotte @CharlotteFTBL -1.5

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

Top 10 Worst Home Field "Advantages" in College Football:

1. Texas @TexasFootball -4.7
2. Baylor @BUFootball -3.4
3. Liberty @LibertyFootball -3.4
4. Louisiana Monroe @ULM_FB -2.6
5. Arizona @ArizonaFBall -2.5
6. Kansas @KU_Football -2.5
7. Houston @UHCougarFB -2.1

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

8. Ohio State @OhioStateFB +4.7
9. Boston College @BCFootball +4.5
10. Wake Forest @WakeFB +4.4

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

Top 10 Home Field Advantages in College Football:

1. Utah State @USUFootball +7.9
2. South Carolina @GamecockFB +7.0
3. East Carolina @ECUPiratesFB +6.3
4. Tulane @GreenWaveFB +5.9
5. Tennessee @Vol_Football +5.7
6. UNLV @unlvfootball +5.6
7. Florida State @FSUFootball +4.8

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

Forgot the biggest one USC > Michigan State (USC large favorites due to weak MSU defense)

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

14 UCSB
15 Princeton
16 Northern Kentucky

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

Top teams by seed:

1 Alabama (NT game)
2 Texas (projected champ)
3 Kansas State (Final 4)
4 UConn (Elite 8)
5 SDSU (Sweet 16)
6 TCU (S16)
7 Texas A&M (R32)
8 Arkansas (R32)
9 West Virginia (R32)
10 USC (R32)
11 Providence (R32)
12 VCU (R64)
13 Kent State

#MarchMadness

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

Virginia (#GoHoos) vs. Furman (#AllDIn) is the weakest 1st round matchup. Expecting a double digit loss in Virginia's 2nd round matchup with SDSU

#MarchMadness

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

This year's cinderellas: College of Charleston/Hofstra, Vermont, Drake, South Alabama, Furman

This year's busts: Purdue, Marquette, Virginia, Miami

#OurCity
#DrakeAllIn
#PrideOfLI
#BurnTheBoats
#FUAllTheTime

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

.@saintmaryshoops is going go be one of the weakest #MarchMadness at large teams of all time. Expecting a close game vs. BYU tonight. We currently have the Gaels as the 4th best team in the conference.

#GoCougs
#WCCsports

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

UT Arlington (+20000) are also huge dogs with potential in the #wacmbb tourney.

Like Vandy in the #SECmbb tourney to surprise too. Likely won't win but they're primed for a run

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

More dogs who have a chance:

Maryland (+600) to win #B1GMBBT (heavy favorite)
Copping State (+1800) to reach #MEACmbb finals
Jackson State (+450) to reach #SWACMBB finals
Georgia Tech (+30000) will at least reach the #ACCMBB semis

#bettingtips
#mbb

[Relativerankings @Relativeranks]

NCAA conference tourneys looking pretty chalky. Two big underdogs we have winning are North Alabama (+10000) in the ASUN & South Alabama (+1000) winning the CUSA

#ncaatournament
#RoarLions
#OurCity