Reluctant Tweeter

MissMischa on GETTR

My freedom protects your freedom. Your freedom protects my freedom.

#TwitterSucks and #TrudeauMustGo

[Reluctant Tweeter @ReluctantTwee14]

@colossusPhD @bennyjohnson Due to the honk honk emergency and to ensure your safety, we have suspended everyone’s rights and many bank accounts.
Your government is here for you in these trying times.

-Justin “Sunny Ways” Trudeau

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

A war in the Middle East + maybe a few cyber-attacks will be excellent distractions from the real cause of the crisis, the seizing up of credit markets & subsequent implosion of the banking system that's currently underway 🤫

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Are we about to experience another liquidity crisis + vol spike like Feb 2020, followed closely by a dramatic restructuring of the system?

This paper from Jackson Hole Aug 25, 2023 seems to confirm that's the plan 👇
https://t.co/S6V92Qthh9

John Titus
https://t.co/AFIHCKcc2K

[Reluctant Tweeter @ReluctantTwee14]

@FinanceLancelot Mr. Titus is back! Been waiting rather impatiently.

[Reluctant Tweeter @ReluctantTwee14]

@MacTen22Sweet @FinanceLancelot Yeah, it was also safe and effective and nothing will happen.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

The Dollar shortage could collapse the global banking system (by design) 🤫

https://t.co/lEnGgzRWEQ

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

#JustDarioDaily

⚠️ $VIX Volmageddon Vibes? 👀 ⚠️

Well well… well, is the #Volatility shorting bandwagon now so crowded that the weird cracking sound we hear in the markets’ background comes from its wheels in pain? 🤣

Perhaps the apex of the "mania" was reached last week when Defiance ETFs LLC launched the #Nasdaq Enhanced Option Income ETF $QQQY on Thursday. This actively managed ETF will give retail investors access to the most popular trend among asset managers since the #0DTE casino became a daily business late last year: shorting #0DTE ITM put options to boost the underlying index returns.

For those who have followed me for a long time, you know how many times I have flagged the extensive use of $VIX suppression trades by "pros" to inject Red Bull into the veins of #stocks. On every bank trading floor, this has been one of the few "sure win" trades to carry in your books for a very long time, as long as you are not the one holding the bag when volatility skyrockets 🚀 , because sooner or later it always does, and this is a certainty.

However, human psychology is a bitch and, by nature, when something doesn't happen for a long time, people tend to forget about it. 🙄 When people forget about something or they are brainwashed into believing that "we will not see a financial crisis anymore in our lifetime" (cit. Janet Yellen), what do they do? They lower their guard.

Currently, #0DTE options volumes account for ~50% of the total daily volume traded, simply insane. $SPX short positions are at multi-year lows, and despite US Treasury yields being higher than #stocks ones, people are still pouring cash into #equities. How can we justify this? Human nature, once again… People are so convinced rates will come down that holding #stocks is a no-brainer… if you don't use your brain! 🤣 

For some reason that I find so hard to wrap my head around, everyone is convinced that the economy can go down the toilet, hence the #FED will cut rates, and #stocks won't be bothered at all in the process. This is regardless of bringing #inflation into the picture, which will make things even worse because central banks won't be so eager to cut rates quickly when things start blowing up for real this time, mark my words. 🫤

Overall, today's market combines all the elements that have caused all the previous major financial crises. It has the 1929-style widespread retail participation, the 1987-style institutional crowding in very few "portfolio insurance"-like trading strategies, and the 2008-style rotten balance sheets across the banking system with more and more assets hidden in HTM books. Furthermore, unlike any time before, today the market is short volatility to a magnitude never seen before. However, without a risk event triggering a spike in volatility, nothing to worry about though, right? 😉

Well, if you can pull out before volatility raises its ugly head, surely you have nothing to worry about. Hence my question: how far are we from this "event"?

If history rhymes, the answer is about 30 days 🥶 Why am I saying this? Out of curiosity, I compared the trend between the (infamous) #CreditSuisse XIV ETN, the one that triggered the 2018 Volmageddon, with today's inverse $VIX Frankenstein $SVIX. By rebasing the $SVIX to 100 since it bottomed on the 13th of June 2022 and comparing it to the equivalent XIV timeframe, leaving a 30-day gap at the end, you can see how the two are almost following the same path. ⚠️😳

Now, will everything collapse in about 30 days' time? No one can tell, but plenty of people posting various analysis here are somewhat coming to a similar conclusion. $VIX seasonality will also be particularly bad in the following weeks, coincidentally. I am not saying it's time to go max short, but perhaps it's worth considering taking some chips off the table and/or buying some insurance... just in case 😅 🙏🏻

[Benny Johnson @bennyjohnson]

🚨 A former Indian diplomat says there are “credible rumors” that cocaine was found on Justin Trudeau’s plane by drug sniffing dogs in India and that the Prime Minister didn't attend the G20 dinner because he was high.

[Reluctant Tweeter @ReluctantTwee14]

@TheRealKeean #NuancedNazis 🙄

[Maxime Bernier @MaximeBernier]

Canada has a fascist psychopath as prime minister and a nazi as deputy prime minister. They recently gave themselves extraordinary powers to crush peaceful dissidents.

But according to media talking heads, PPC is a threat to Canadian democracy. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Crash Test Canadian @CrashTestCanada]

@elonmusk @ggreenwald

[Viva Frei @thevivafrei]

Trump’s indictment showed us you don’t even have to have committed a criminal act in order to be indicted;.

Enrique Tarrio’s sentencing showed us you don’t even have to have been present to be convicted;

Douglass Mackey’s conviction showed us obvious satire can now be criminalized.

All concrete evidence that anyone with a remotely checkered past will be an easy target.

As Alex Jones said, it’s the same play over and over again. You’re just the latest target.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 now make up 34% of the index with an average P/E ratio of 50x.

This is the highest percentage since 2001 during the Dot-com bubble.

Even in the 2008 bubble, this percentage peaked at ~26%.

These same 10 companies have accounted for ~80% of the Nasdaq's entire rally this year.

Markets are increasingly held up by a few stocks, particularly in the technology sector.

[Reluctant Tweeter @ReluctantTwee14]

@biancoresearch @swingtrader We’re approaching “let them eat cake” with this rhetoric.

[Kat Kanada 🏴 @KatKanada_TM]

This was $90 😭😭😭

How are we supposed to live like this? 🤯

[Reluctant Tweeter @ReluctantTwee14]

@KatKanada_TM @OldGuyAdventure Despite what the bots say, inflation is a compounding phenomenon. Each year of inflation builds upon its last level.
Disinflation (which the government is touting) IS NOT deflation.
Our mr noodles are still getting more expensive, just at a slower rate.

[Reluctant Tweeter @ReluctantTwee14]

@KatKanada_TM I have two friends in their 20s working seven days a week who are struggling with rent.
One is in a long term relationship with her partner who also has a stable job, and wants to get married and have a family.
It’s just not possible for them right now. They are just surviving.

[Reluctant Tweeter @ReluctantTwee14]

@FinanceLancelot Good luck, FOMO bag-holders of Canadian RE.

2008 vibes, but this time around Canada is the canary.

“Sunny ways”, he said.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Negative amortization is a big problem for the big 3